adplus-dvertising
Connect with us

Economy

World's Most Housing Exposed Economy Faces Ultimate Stress Test – BNN

Published

 on


(Bloomberg) — Australia’s A$7.1 trillion ($5.2 trillion) housing market is facing the ultimate stress test — the first recession in almost three decades — and passing with flying colors for now.

Economists had predicted property prices would tumble 10% or more as Covid-19 swept Australia; now, they’re scrambling to reverse those forecasts to gains of 5-15% in the next couple of years. Policy makers have switched from worrying about plunging prices to being on guard for excessive exuberance.

A recent Saturday auction at the Sydney suburb of Forest Lodge — around 2.5 miles from the city center — captured the bullish mood. About 30 people gathered in front a four bedroom Victorian terrace up for auction. The bidders — ranging from younger professionals to middle-aged people — kicked off at A$2.4 million and moved up in increments of A$10,000, then A$5,000, until the hammer came down at A$2.74 million.

300x250x1

It’s a dynamic that’s emerging in other countries as low interest rates fuel asset prices. While the housing strength is good news for the economy’s recovery, to housing bears — who have been proved wrong time and again for a generation in Australia — further gains risk fueling the bubble that is destined to pop one day, leaving a trail of bad debts.

The lending books of Australia’s banks are among the world’s most exposed to mortgages, with housing loans at the major four banks equating to about 75% of the nation’s approximately A$2 trillion gross domestic product. The statistics office estimates the value of the nation’s residential dwellings was A$7.1 trillion in the June quarter, when the weighted average prices in capital cities rose 6.2% from a year earlier.

Behind the bonanza are interest rates at levels unseen in Australia before. Three of the nation’s four big banks are offering fixed-rate mortgages below 2%, and HSBC Holdings Plc. is offering 1.88%, according to Mortgage Choice Ltd.. a broker. That’s been facilitated by the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting its interest rate to 0.10%, as well as its bond-buying and bank lending programs that aim to lower borrowing costs across the economy.

“It’s not a place I think anybody thought we would be,” said Susan Mitchell, chief executive officer of Mortgage Choice. “There’s a lot of stimulus. I’m a bit worried about prices spiking up.”

Safe as Houses

RBA modeling found that even in a scenario where the economy contracted by 20% and unemployment soared to 20%, banks still wouldn’t breach minimum prudential capital requirements. “The likelihood of a major bank failing is very low,” it says.

The RBA has made clear that reducing unemployment is its priority for now, rather than worrying about asset prices. Governor Philip Lowe has said the absence of population growth — with international borders still closed — changes housing market dynamics and he doesn’t think an unsustainable increase in housing prices is likely.

Yet there are tools should the situation change.

“We know from the experience of recent years that the macroprudential instruments can curtail the growth in debt in a stabilizing way. So it’s an issue we’re watching carefully, but I’m not particularly worried about it at the moment,” Lowe said during a panel at the Australian’s Strategic Forum 2020 on Wednesday.

By contrast in New Zealand, where some regions are recording double-digit house price gains despite the worst recession in a century, economists expect loan-to-valuation ratio restrictions will be put in place early next year.

Fiona Guthrie, chief executive officer of Financial Counselling Australia, worries more people will end up finding themselves under financial strain from easier finance rules.

“Weaker lending standards mean people will be loaded up with as much debt as possible,” she said. “There is significant profit to be made in pushing borrowers to the edge.”

Sea Change

Yet, much like the uneven nature of the economy’s recovery, the housing market strength isn’t uniform. Many people living in inner city apartments in Sydney and Melbourne are looking for more space.

“The virus has become a catalyst for change that is seeing us refashioning our homes and rethinking where we want to live,” said John McGrath, chief executive officer of real estate agent McGrath Ltd.

The result has been a collapse in rents and flat prices — with more to come as apartment blocs are still under construction. That’s unlikely to hurt Australian banks, which have steered clear of developers after a recent period of over-building. But it does impact mom and pop investors.

In addition, there are households still on deferred mortgage repayments because they lost their job in the Covid lockdown. When these are scaled back and loan holidays end sometime next year, they could be forced to sell.

World-champion kite surfer Ewan Jaspan is among the sea changers. Being in a trendy St Kilda flat 24/7 with limited outside space in Melbourne wasn’t ideal, so he and his girlfriend decamped to tropical Queensland. Initially the plan was to stay for two or three weeks. That was a few months ago.

“A lot of people are working remote anyway, so why would I be in the city in a tiny apartment when I could have a garden and outside space and be at the beach?”

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

728x90x4

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

How will a shrinking population affect the global economy? – Al Jazeera English

Published

 on


Falling fertility rates could bring about a transformational demographic shift over the next 25 years.

It has been described as a demographic catastrophe.

The Lancet medical journal warns that a majority of countries do not have a high enough fertility rate to sustain their population size by the end of the century.

300x250x1

The rate of the decline is uneven, with some developing nations seeing a baby boom.

The shift could have far-reaching social and economic impacts.

Enormous population growth since the industrial revolution has put enormous pressure on the planet’s limited resources.

So, how does the drop in births affect the economy?

And regulators in the United States and the European Union crack down on tech monopolies.

The gender gap in tech narrows.

Adblock test (Why?)

728x90x4

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

John Ivison: Canada's economy desperately needs shock treatment after this Liberal government – National Post

Published

 on


Lack of business investment is the main culprit. Canadians are digging holes with shovels while our competitors are buying excavators

Get the latest from John Ivison straight to your inbox

Article content

It speaks to the seriousness of the situation that the Bank of Canada is not so much taking the gloves off as slipping lead into them.

Senior deputy governor, Carolyn Rogers, came as close to wading into the political arena as any senior deputy governor of the central bank probably should in her speech in Halifax this week.

Article content

But she was right to sound the alarm about a subject — Canada’s waning productivity — on which the federal government’s performance has been lacklustre at best.

Advertisement 2

Article content

Productivity has fallen in six consecutive quarters and is now on a par with where it was seven years ago.

Lack of business investment is the main culprit.

In essence, Canadians are digging holes with shovels while many of our competitors are buying excavators.

“You’ve seen those signs that say, ‘in emergency, break glass.’ Well, it’s time to break the glass,” Rogers said.

She was explicit that government policy is partly to blame, pointing out that businesses need more certainty to invest with confidence. Government incentives and regulatory approaches that change year to year do not inspire confidence, she said.

Recommended from Editorial

  1. Carolyn Rogers, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, holds a press conference at the Bank of Canada in Ottawa on Wednesday, March 6, 2024.

    Canada’s lagging productivity at crisis level, BoC official says

  2. Homes for sale at the Juniper condo development in North Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, on Tuesday, Sept. 13, 2022.

    Expected BoC rate cuts luring buyers back into housing market

The government’s most recent contribution to the competitiveness file — Bill C-56, which made a number of competition-related changes — is a case in point. It was aimed at cracking down on “abusive practices” in the grocery industry that no one, including the bank in its own study, has been able to substantiate. Rather than encouraging investment, it added a political actor — the minister of industry — to the market review process. The Business Council of Canada called the move “capricious,” which was Rogers’s point.

Article content

Advertisement 3

Article content

While blatant price-fixing is rare, the lack of investment is a product of the paucity of competition in many sectors, where Canadian companies protected from foreign competition are sitting on fat profit margins and don’t feel compelled to invest to make their operations more efficient. “Competition can make the whole economy more productive,” said Rogers.

The Conservatives now look set to make this an election issue. Ontario MP Ryan Williams has just released a slick 13-minute video that makes clear his party intends to act in this area.

Using the Monopoly board game as a prop, Williams, the party’s critic for pan-Canadian trade and competition, claims that in every sector, monopolies and oligopolies reign supreme, resulting in lower investment, lower productivity, higher prices, worse service, lower wages and more wealth inequality.

(As an aside, it was a marked improvement on last year’s “Justinflation” rap video.)

Williams said that Canadians pay among the highest cell phone prices in the world and that Rogers, Telus and Bell are the priciest carriers, bar none. The claim has some foundation: in a recent Cable.co.uk global league table that compared the average price of one gigabyte, Canada was ranked 216th of 237 countries at US$5.37 (noticeably, the U.S. was ranked even more expensive at US$6).

Advertisement 4

Article content

Williams noted that two airlines control 80 per cent of the market, even though Air Canada was ranked dead last of all North American airlines for timeliness.

He pointed out that six banks control 87 per cent of Canada’s mortgage market, while five grocery stores — Sobeys, Metro, Loblaw, Walmart and Costco — command a similar dominance of the grocery market.

“Competition is dying in Canada,” Williams said. “The federal government has made things worse by over-regulating airlines, banks and telecoms to actually protect monopolies and keep new players out.”

So far, so good.

The Conservatives will “bring back home a capitalist economy” — a market that does not protect monopolies and creates more competition, in the form of Canadian companies that will provide new supply and better prices.

That sounds great. But at the same time, the Conservative formula for fixing things appears to involve more government intervention, not less.

Williams pointed out the Conservatives opposed RBC buying HSBC’s Canadian operations, WestJet buying Sunwing and Rogers buying Shaw. The party would oppose monopolies from buying up the competition, he said.

Advertisement 5

Article content

The real solution is to let the market do its work to bring prices down. But that is a more complicated process than Williams lets on.

Back in 2007, when Research in Motion was Canada’s most valuable company, the Harper government appointed a panel of experts, led by former Nortel chair Lynton “Red” Wilson, to address concerns that the corporate sector was being “hollowed out” by foreign takeovers, following the sale of giants Alcan, Dofasco and Inco.

The “Compete to Win” report that came out in June 2008 found that the number of foreign-owned firms had remained relatively unchanged, but recommended 65 changes to make Canada more competitive.

The Harper government acted on the least-contentious suggestions: lowering corporate taxes, harmonizing sales taxes with a number of provinces and making immigration more responsive to labour markets.

But it did not end up liberalizing the banking, broadcasting, aviation or telecom markets, as the report suggested (ironically, it was a Liberal transport minister, Marc Garneau, who raised foreign ownership levels of air carriers to 49 per cent from 25 per cent in 2018).

Advertisement 6

Article content

The point is, Canada has a competition problem but solving it requires taking on vested interests. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has indicated he is willing to do that, calling corporate lobbyists “utterly useless” and saying he will focus on Canadian workers, not corporate interests.

“My daily obsession will be about what is good for the working-class people in this country,” he said in Vancouver earlier this month.

Even opening up sectors to foreign competition is no guarantee that investors will come. There are no foreign ownership restrictions in the grocery market (in addition to the five supermarkets listed above, there is Amazon-owned Whole Foods). When the Competition Bureau concluded last year that there was a “modest but meaningful” increase in food prices, it recommended Ottawa encourage a foreign-owned player to enter the Canadian market. It was a recommendation adopted by Industry Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne, to no avail thus far.

But it is clear from the Bank’s warning that the Canadian economy requires some shock treatment.

Robert Scrivener, the chairman of Bell and Northern Telecom in the 1970s, called Canada a nation of overprotected underachievers. That is even more true now than it was back then.

It’s time to break the glass.

jivison@criffel.ca

Get even more deep-dive National Post political coverage and analysis in your inbox with the Political Hack newsletter, where Ottawa bureau chief Stuart Thomson and political analyst Tasha Kheiriddin get at what’s really going on behind the scenes on Parliament Hill every Wednesday and Friday, exclusively for subscribers. Sign up here.

Article content

Get the latest from John Ivison straight to your inbox

Comments

Join the Conversation

This Week in Flyers

Adblock test (Why?)

728x90x4

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

Beijing At A Loss On What To Do About Its Economic Challenges? – Forbes

Published

 on


China’s annual “Two Sessions” conference has for decades revealed the party agenda to the faithful. This year’s meeting offered them little, a startling development given China’s huge economic and financial challenges – a property crisis, export shortfalls, demographic decline, a loss of confidence among consumers and private business owners, and growing hostility in foreign capitals. More than ever, China needs Beijing to act, to point the way to future action. The failure to address this need at the Two Sessions suggests that China’s leadership has run out of ideas.

Most telling was the absence of the traditional press conference. Every Two Sessions meeting has included a space for China’s leadership to interact with both domestic and foreign media. The senior men in government were not always forthcoming at these exchanges, but their evasive answers at least pointed out publicly what matters they considered touchy or awkward. When this year’s press conference was cancelled, one can only conclude that the good and the great in the Forbidden City worry about being embarrassed.

The authorities did announce a real growth target for 2024. They set it at “around 5 percent.” In one respect, this information can only be described as bland. It was expected and is very close to last year’s pace. In another respect, however, it confesses failure of a sort. It is, after all, barely over half the real growth rate China averaged up until 2019. And with all the problems, it is not clear that China can even make that rate. Last year the economy had a tailwind from pandemic recovery. None of that is in play in 2024. Meanwhile, the authorities never explained how they intended to achieve the growth.

300x250x1

Infrastructure spending was mentioned, one trillion yuan ($132.9 billion) worth of it. Infrastructure is China’s default form of economic stimulus. But little was said about how China would finance such spending. Local governments, the usual source of infrastructure financing, face huge debt overhangs, some so severe that they cannot even meet the public service needs of their populations. True, Beijing said it was ready to take the unusual step of issuing central government debt to finance the spending. But even that raises questions. The government already faces record high budget deficits. The emphasis on “ultra-long bonds” may hint at how difficult financial matters have become. Long maturities will delay the need to repay the debt and show that Beijing does not expect an immediate return from its spending.

Little was said about the property crisis with all its adverse economic and financial ramifications. Despite the need for bold action on this front, all Beijing has mustered so far are the “white lists” in which local governments compile a list of failing real estate projects for financing that the state-owned banks would review before advancing the funds. The amounts discussed so far, however, are tiny compared with the need, barely over 5 percent of Evergrande’s initial failure two and half years ago. Some weeks back, talk emerged about a plan for the government to take over some 30 percent of the housing market. Although such an action would have brought China other severe problems, it would have been big enough to disguise the property crisis. Nothing as bold or substantive as that got a hearing at the Two Sessions.

On China’s deflation problem, the authorities did indicate a target of 3 percent inflation for the year but said nothing about how they planned to achieve it. To be sure, deflation is more a symptom than a cause of the country’s challenges, which in part lie with inadequate demand for consumption and capital spending by private business, but neither did China’s leadership say much about these problems either. The only concrete suggestion was a promise by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to cut interest rates more than the bank already has. Given the lack of an economic response to past rate cuts, this promise hardly seems an adequate answer. In any case, as soon as the conference ended, the PBOC at its own meeting decided against another interest rate cut.

Talk did center on new growth engines for the economy, what the conference referred to as “new productive sources.” There was little new here. Renewable energy, advanced technology, and electric vehicles led the list. Like so much else offered at the Two Sessions, the talk was all aspirational. No one suggested how China planned to promote these areas beyond what is already being done. Given the sorry state of China’s economy, that is not enough.

!function(n) if(!window.cnxps) window.cnxps=,window.cnxps.cmd=[]; var t=n.createElement(‘iframe’); t.display=’none’,t.onload=function() var n=t.contentWindow.document,c=n.createElement(‘script’); c.src=’//cd.connatix.com/connatix.playspace.js’,c.setAttribute(‘defer’,’1′),c.setAttribute(‘type’,’text/javascript’),n.body.appendChild(c) ,n.head.appendChild(t) (document);
(function() function createUniqueId() return ‘xxxxxxxx-xxxx-4xxx-yxxx-xxxxxxxxxxxx’.replace(/[xy]/g, function(c) 0x8); return v.toString(16); ); const randId = createUniqueId(); document.getElementsByClassName(‘fbs-cnx’)[0].setAttribute(‘id’, randId); document.getElementById(randId).removeAttribute(‘class’); (new Image()).src = ‘https://capi.connatix.com/tr/si?token=2f8ffe6b-3135-4f5d-92bc-d6a427cad63a’; cnxps.cmd.push(function () cnxps( playerId: ‘2f8ffe6b-3135-4f5d-92bc-d6a427cad63a’).render(randId); ); )();

If the Two Sessions is supposed to announce a guide to China’s future, this year’s meeting missed its mission, especially in the face of China’s many economic and financial problems. Perhaps more complete and substantive guidance will emerge at next month’s politburo meeting, but given how the Two Sessions went, that seems unlikely. China’s leadership seems to have run out of ideas.

Adblock test (Why?)

728x90x4

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending