BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Argentina’s President Alberto Fernandez was clear when COVID-19 first hit the country early last year: saving lives at all costs trumped any economic concerns.
Now facing a second wave of infections, the South American nation has adjusted its strategy to prioritize protecting its fragile economy. It is hoping greater experience dealing with the coronavirus, a nascent vaccine program, and short, regional lockdowns can help keep the virus in check.
The second wave comes at a delicate time for the center-left Peronist government. It is heading for mid-term elections in October to defend its majority in Congress, its popularity bruised by a strict, lengthy lockdown last year and the hard economic hit.
The grains producer is also in talks with the International Monetary Fund to revamp some $45 billion in loans it cannot pay back and needs to fire up economic growth to bring in much needed hard currency. And creditors are looking for signs of recovery after a sovereign debt restructuring last year.
The Fernandez administration wants to avoid imposing a blanket lockdown, instead using data on caseloads to establish short-term localized restrictions, reinforce sanitary measures, and maintain controls over borders, a government source said.
The government also wants to accelerate a vaccine roll-out delayed by shortage of supply, aiming to have all medical workers and those at high risk vaccinated before the fast-approaching southern winter.
Argentina’s economy contracted around 10% last year, the third straight year of recession, and Economy Minister Martin Guzman has said it “could not withstand” another total shutdown. Poverty levels rose to 42% in the second half of last year.
The country has recorded around 2.4 million coronavirus cases and over 56,000 deaths, and a second wave is building with recent daily cases at 80% of the peak and rising, a Reuters tally of official data shows. On Tuesday, infections reached a daily record.
“The second wave and incidence of cases could be even worse when the variants take hold,” said Tomás Orduna, an infectious disease specialist who advises the government, referring to the P1 ‘Brazilian’ variant and others racing through the region.
‘WARNING LIGHTS’
Argentine infectious diseases expert Martin Hojman said the southern hemisphere winter and reopening of activities would keep driving the second wave.
He said the rate of vaccinations – which has seen some 4.3 million doses administered so far in a country with a population of around 45 million – was not fast enough.
Leda Guzzi, a Buenos Aires-based infectious disease expert, said there had been a very substantial jump in cases over the last month, and pointed to the ‘R number’, which measures transmission rates, soaring in some areas.
“When this index is greater than 1.2 it means that cases are accelerating in a worrying way and that the warning lights should come on… This is happening in various jurisdictions and various departments,” she said.
Despite that, schools and restaurants in most places are open, and many Argentines say they do not want another strict lockdown.
“I think there must be a middle ground where the economy does not collapse and stores do not close and so many people are left on the street and without work,” said Ambar Rujal, a 19-year-old student in Buenos Aires.
Jorge Giacobbe, a Buenos Aires-based political analyst, said the government would not want to risk upsetting voters so close to October’s legislative elections.
“There are going to be restrictions, but the government knows that it cannot make harsh restrictions again. People will not allow it after having suffered such a strict quarantine in 2020,” he said.
(Reporting by Agustin Geist; Additional reporting by Eliana Raszewski; Editing by Adam Jourdan and Rosalba O’Brien)
VANCOUVER – Canada’s labour minister says striking grain terminal workers in Metro Vancouver and their employers have reached a tentative labour deal.
Steven MacKinnon announced the agreement between Grain Workers Union Local 333 and the Vancouver Terminal Elevators’ Association in a post on social media platform X, but provided no other details.
The union confirmed the tentative deal in a statement on Facebook, saying its members will conduct the ratification vote by Oct. 4.
The notification from the union also says picket lines were to be removed Saturday and members will return to work pending ratification, ending the strike that had paralyzed grain shipments from Metro Vancouver’s port.
The dispute had previously led to picket lines going up at six Metro Vancouver grain terminals on Tuesday as about 600 workers went on strike.
Canadian grain producers had urged a resolution in the dispute, noting about 52 per cent of the country’s grains moved through Metro Vancouver terminals last year en route to being exported.
Farmers say the strike, happening during crop harvesting, would result in as much as $35 million per day in lost exports.
The Western Grain Elevator Association said on Friday that talks had stalled after two days of negotiations this week, with the employer saying it had increased its offers to settle “outstanding issues.”
The employers group had said they’ve reached the end of their “financial ability to conclude an agreement that industry can absorb” with the last offer, and it was up to the federally appointed mediator to report the results to MacKinnon for the next steps.
MacKinnon says in his tweet that both parties put in “the work necessary to get a deal done.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 28, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says real gross domestic product grew 0.2 per cent in July, following essentially no change in June, helped by strength in the retail trade sector.
The agency says the growth came as services-producing industries grew 0.2 per cent for the month.
The retail trade sector was the largest contributor to overall growth in July as it gained one per cent, helped by the motor vehicles and parts dealers subsector which gained 2.8 per cent.
The public sector aggregate, which includes the educational services, health care and social assistance, and public administration sectors, gained 0.3 per cent, while the finance and insurance sector rose 0.5 per cent.
Meanwhile, goods-producing industries gained 0.1 per cent in July as the utilities sector rose 1.3 per cent and the manufacturing sector grew 0.3 per cent.
Statistics Canada’s early estimate for August suggests real GDP for the month was essentially unchanged, as increases in oil and gas extraction and the public sector were offset by decreases in manufacturing and transportation and warehousing.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 27, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index closed above 24,000 for the first time Thursday as strength in base metals and other sectors outweighed losses in energy, while U.S. markets also rose and the S&P 500 notched another record as well.
“Another day, another record,” said Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones.
“The path of least resistance continues to be higher.”
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 127.95 points at 24,033.83.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 260.36 points at 42,175.11. The S&P 500 index was up 23.11 points at 5,745.37, while the Nasdaq composite was up 108.09 points at 18,190.29.
Markets continue to be optimistic about an economic soft landing, said Kourkafas, after the U.S. Federal Reserve last week announced an outsized cut to its key interest rate following months of speculation about when it would start easing policy.
Economic data Thursday added to the story that the U.S. economy remains resilient despite higher rates, said Kourkafas.
The U.S. economy grew at a three-per-cent annual rate in the second quarter, one report said, picking up from the first quarter of the year. Another report showed fewer U.S. workers applied for unemployment benefits last week.
The data shows “the economy remains on strong footing while the Fed is pivoting now in a decisive way towards an easier policy,” said Kourkafas.
The Fed’s decisive move gave investors more reason to believe that a soft landing is still the “base case scenario,” he said, “and likely reduces the downside risks for a recession by having the Fed moving too late or falling behind the curve.”
North of the border, the TSX usually gets a boost from Wall St. strength, said Kourkafas, but on Thursday the index also reflected some optimism of its own as the Bank of Canada has already cut rates three times to address weakening in the economy.
“The Bank of Canada likely now will be emboldened by the Fed,” he said.
“They didn’t want to move too far ahead of the Fed, and now that the Fed moved in a bigger-than-expected way, that provides more room for the Bank of Canada to cut as aggressively as needed to support the economy, given that inflation is within the target range.”
The TSX has also been benefiting from strength in materials after China’s central bank announced several measures meant to support the company’s economy, said Kourkafas.
However, energy stocks dragged on the Canadian index as oil prices fell Thursday following a report that Saudi Arabia was preparing to abandon its unofficial US$100-per-barrel price target for crude as it prepares to increase its output.
The Canadian dollar traded for 74.22 cents US compared with 74.28 cents US on Wednesday.
The November crude oil contract was down US$2.02 at US$67.67 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down seven cents at US$2.75 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$10.20 at US$2,694.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up 15 cents at US$4.64 a pound.
— With files from The Associated Press
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 26, 2024.
