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Generalist funds flow back into mining as prices, inflation climb

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Surging prices for commodities, stronger balance sheets and rising inflation have lured back to mining stocks generalist investors that for years shunned the sector, data shows.

Shares in diversified mining companies Rio Tinto, BHP, Anglo American and Glencore have doubled in the last year, as policy support measures in advanced economies in response to the COVID-19 pandemic stoked inflation.

Commodities serve as a hedge against inflation, meaning their prices are expected to stay strong, and at the same time the transition to a low carbon economy and channelling of stimulus funds into infrastructure is generating demand for raw materials.

The size of natural resources mutual and exchange-traded funds tracked by Refinitiv Lipper data exceeded $70 billion by the end of April for the first time since September 2018 at $72.4 billion. (Graphic: Assets and flows of funds)

Many generalist investors – or money managers whose focus is not solely on mining companies – fled the sector when a commodity boom crashed in 2015 as China’s appetite for raw materials slowed down.

“The inflation fears and metals price action has brought investors back to mining stocks,” said London & Capital head of equities Roger Jones, whose fund holds mining stocks.

A Bank of America survey of fund managers published in May found that a net 21% of European investors participating in it were overweight metals and mining versus a net 56% that said they were underweight a year ago.

The survey found fund managers were underweight defensive sectors such as utilities and pharma.

This is not only visible in Europe, as several hedge funds have piled into Canada-listed Teck Resources Ltd, for example, U.S. regulatory filings show. (Graphic: Miners vs FTSE, https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/ygdpzognwvw/minersvsftse.JPG)

AVOIDING BOOM AND BUST

Miners have learnt a hard lesson since the last boom, when they overpaid by billions to buy assets, sometimes in complex jurisdictions or difficult geologies.

By maintaining discipline on costs, spending and acquisitions, they cut debt and gave shareholders dividends that have become loftier as commodity prices rose.

Prices for copper, which is expected to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the lower carbon economy, hit a record this month, while battery minerals nickel, lithium and cobalt have also jumped.

Sell-side analysts have hailed the latest rally as the beginning of a supercycle, but some fund managers caution against too much enthusiasm, as supply disruptions caused by the COVID-19 restrictions ease, potentially curbing prices.

“Supply chains are still not working as smoothly because of COVID lockdowns, so we have to wait until there is a normalisation to get a better idea of what is really driving commodity prices,” said Ben Ritchie, head of European equities at Aberdeen Standard Investments.

Fund managers also said China was not consuming as much metal as it was during a 2000-2008 supercycle, and mining stocks are trading on low multiples compared to tech for example, which suggests broader scepticism that prices can be sustained.

Another concern for investors has been the level of risk associated with mining that has led to environmental disasters and legal action.

As ESG (environmental, social and governance) criteria have shot to prominence, miners have drawn up sustainability reports and ethical and green targets that may reassure some investors.

“ESG has been a challenge for miners to adapt to, but it is arguably the best thing that has happened to the mining sector,” said Janus Henderson fund manager Tal Lomnitzer, whose funds hold Anglo American and copper miner Freeport-McMoRan.

“Decarbonisation should bring in those investors who would otherwise avoid the sector.”

 

(Reporting by Zandi Shabalala and Clara Denina; additional reporting by Maiya Keidan in Toronto. Editing by Barbara Lewis)

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Bimbo Canada closing Quebec City bakery, affecting 141 workers

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MONTREAL – Bakery company Bimbo Canada says it’s closing its bakery in Quebec City by the end of the year, affecting about 141 workers.

The company says operations will wind down gradually over the next few months as it moves production to its other bakeries.

Bimbo Canada produces and distributes brands including Dempster’s, Villaggio and Stonemill.

It’s a subsidiary of Mexico-based Grupo Bimbo.

The company says it’s focused on optimizing its manufacturing footprint.

It says it will provide severance, personal counselling and outplacement services to affected employees.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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NDP to join Bloc in defeating Conservatives’ non-confidence motion

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OTTAWA – The New Democrats confirmed Thursday they won’t help Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives topple the government next week, and intend to join the Bloc Québécois in blocking the Tories’ non-confidence motion.

The planned votes from the Bloc and the New Democrats eliminate the possibility of a snap election, buying the Liberals more time to govern after a raucous start to the fall sitting of Parliament.

Poilievre issued a challenge to NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh earlier this week when he announced he will put forward a motion that simply states that the House has no confidence in the government or the prime minister.

If it were to pass, it would likely mean Canadians would be heading to the polls, but Singh said Thursday he’s not going to let Poilievre tell him what to do.

Voting against the Conservative motion doesn’t mean the NDP support the Liberals, said Singh, who pulled out of his political pact with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau a few weeks ago.

“I stand by my words, Trudeau has let you down,” Singh said in the foyer outside of the House of Commons Thursday.

“Trudeau has let you down and does not deserve another chance.”

Canadians will have to make that choice at the ballot box, Singh said, but he will make a decision about whether to help trigger that election on a vote-by-vote basis in the House.

The Conservatives mocked the NDP during Question Period for saying they had “ripped up” the deal to support the Liberals, despite plans to vote to keep them in power.

Poilievre accused Singh of pretending to pull out of the deal to sway voters in a federal byelection in Winnipeg, where the NDP was defending its long-held seat against the Conservatives.

“Once the votes were counted, he betrayed them again. He’s a fake, a phoney and fraud. How can anyone ever believe what the sellout NDP leader says in the future?” Poilievre said during Question Period Thursday afternoon.

At some point after those comments, Singh stepped out from behind his desk in the House and a two-minute shouting match ensued between the two leaders and their MPs before the Speaker intervened.

Outside the House, Poilievre said he plans to put forward another non-confidence motion at the next opportunity.

“We want a carbon-tax election as soon as possible, so that we can axe Trudeau’s tax before he quadruples it to 61 cents a litre,” he said.

Liberal House leader Karina Gould says there is much work the government still needs to do, and that Singh has realized the consequences of potentially bringing down the government. She refused to take questions about whether her government will negotiate with opposition parties to ensure their support in future confidence motions.

Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet hasn’t ruled out voting no-confidence in the government the next time a motion is tabled.

“I never support Liberals. Help me God, I go against the Conservatives on a vote that is only about Pierre Poilievre and his huge ambition for himself,” Blanchet said Thursday.

“I support the interests of Quebecers, if those interests are also good for Canadians.”

A Bloc bill to increase pension cheques for seniors aged 65 to 74 is now at “the very centre of the survival of this government,” he said.

The Bloc needs a recommendation from a government minister to OK the cost and get the bill through the House.

The Bloc also wants to see more protections for supply management in the food sector in Canada and Quebec.

If the Liberals can’t deliver on those two things, they will fall, Blanchet said.

“This is what we call power,” he said.

Treasury Board President Anita Anand wouldn’t say whether the government would be willing to swallow the financial implications of the Bloc’s demands.

“We are focused at Treasury Board on ensuring prudent fiscal management,” she said Thursday.

“And at this time, our immediate focus is implementing the measures in budget 2024 that were announced earlier this year.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.



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Anita Anand sworn in as transport minister after Pablo Rodriguez resigns

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OTTAWA – Treasury Board President Anita Anand has been sworn in as federal transport minister at a ceremony at Rideau Hall, taking over a portfolio left vacant after Pablo Rodriguez resigned from cabinet and the Liberal caucus on Thursday.

Anand thanked Rodriguez for his contributions to the government and the country, saying she’s grateful for his guidance and friendship.

She sidestepped a question about the message it sends to have him leave the federal Liberal fold.

“That is a decision that he made independently, and I wish him well,” she said.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was not present for the swearing-in ceremony, nor were any other members of the Liberal government.

The shakeup in cabinet comes just days after the Liberals lost a key seat in a Montreal byelection to the Bloc Québécois and amid renewed calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down and make way for a new leader.

Anand said she is not actively seeking leadership of the party, saying she is focused on her roles as minister and as MP.

“My view is that we are a team, and we are a team that has to keep delivering for our country,” she said.

The minority Liberal government is in a more challenging position in the House of Commons after the NDP ended a supply-and-confidence deal that provided parliamentary stability for more than two years.

Non-confidence votes are guaranteed to come from the Opposition Conservatives, who are eager to bring the government down.

On Thursday morning, Rodriguez made a symbolic walk over the Alexandra Bridge from Parliament Hill to Gatineau, Que., where he formally announced his plans to run for the Quebec Liberal party leadership.

He said he will now sit as an Independent member of Parliament, which will allow him to focus on his own priorities.

“I was defending the priorities of the government, and I did it in a very loyal way,” he said.

“It’s normal and it’s what I had to do. But now it’s more about my vision, the vision of the team that I’m building.”

Rodriguez said he will stay on as an MP until the Quebec Liberal leadership campaign officially launches in January.

He said that will “avoid a costly byelection a few weeks, or months, before a general election.”

The next federal election must be held by October 2025.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said he will try to topple the government sooner than that, beginning with a non-confidence motion that is set to be debated Sept. 24 and voted on Sept. 25.

Poilievre has called on the NDP and the Bloc Québécois to support him, but both Jagmeet Singh and Yves-François Blanchet have said they will not support the Conservatives.

Rodriguez said he doesn’t want a federal election right away and will vote against the non-confidence motion.

As for how he would vote on other matters before the House of Commons, “it would depend on the votes.”

Public Services and Procurement Minister Jean-Yves Duclos will become the government’s new Quebec lieutenant, a non-cabinet role Rodriguez held since 2019.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees and Dylan Robertson

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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