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Economy

French economic rebound, inflation to moderate next year – central bank

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French growth and inflation will moderate in 2022 after a faster than expected recovery this year, after which a tighter labour market will boost wages, the French central bank forecast on Sunday.

The euro zone’s second-biggest economy is set to grow 6.7% this year, the Bank of France said in its latest long term outlook, raising its forecast up from 6.3% previously.

The post-pandemic economy’s momentum would wane next year, with growth slowing to 3.6% and easing back further to 2.2% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024, the central bank said.

It also said that inflation, driven largely by high energy prices, would peak at the end this year at around 3.5% before returning to below 2% at the end of 2022.

After that, the central bank expects inflation to settle at 1.7% in 2023-2024, a rate that would be above the low inflation seen in the years preceding the COVID pandemic and closer to rates seen before the 2007-2008 financial crisis, the central bank said.

As current supply-chain difficulties subsided, prices of manufactured goods were seen peaking next year before returning to their long-term average close to zero.

Meanwhile, prices for services would gradually pick up, reaching 2.7% in 2024 as a tighter labour market boosted workers’ salaries, painting an inflation scenario similar to what was seen in the years from 2002 to 2007, the central bank said.

It forecast that unemployment would ease from 7.8% on average this year to 7.7% by the end of 2024. Meanwhile private sector wage gains would reach 4% next year before slipping back to 3% afterwards, which would still be higher than levels seen in the decade preceding the pandemic.

 

(Reporting by Leigh Thomas; Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky)

Economy

PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales fell 1.3% to $69.4B in August

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.

The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.

The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.

Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.

Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.

Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

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