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Where Canada stands in the world if the global economy weakens – CTV News

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The latest forecast for the global economy shows a grim outlook of the world torn by the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Almost all countries are expected to experience slower growth in 2022-23 due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, according to a recent report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

With the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, OECD recently lowered its estimates for global growth, slashing it to 3 per cent in 2022 from 4.5 per cent projected last year.

In 2023, the global growth is estimated to decline further to 2.75 per cent.

Current inflation across OECD countries in 2022 is 9 per cent, twice its earlier projections. The organization said that with the ongoing humanitarian crisis, high inflation could persist in rich countries and create food shortages for poorer ones. It called for global cooperation to prevent a food crisis by avoiding mistakes similar to those that led to the inequity in vaccine distribution.

“The price of this war is high and will need to be shared,” said Laurence Boone, the OECD’s chief economist.

The report said if the war continues to escalate, European economies relying heavily on Russian fuel may worsen, because alternative energy sources may not be enough or easy to ramp up.

“Governments also have to play a role through support targeted to those most vulnerable to rising food and energy inflation,” Ms. Boone said.

SO, WHERE DOES CANADA STAND?

Canada’s economy has largely recovered from the pandemic but the OECD report said the Bank of Canada should continue to raise its policy rate and shrink its balance sheet in order to return to its target inflation.

Along with income from high resource prices, a large part of the recovery, the report said, is due to its limited trade ties with economies that have been hit hard by the war in Ukraine.

Current inflation in Canada is 6.8 per cent– the highest since 1991 – but the country could follow the same path of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hike last week, the largest since 1994.

OECD expects the Bank of Canada to move towards a faster policy tightening so that the domestic productive capacity is not strained by the rising demand.

The Bank of Canada has been raising interest rates to curb the impact of inflation.

In a recent speech in Montreal, Bank of Canada deputy governor Toni Gravelle said, “sharp rebound in global demand for goods, along with pandemic-related restrictions and some weather-related events, created the perfect storm.”

With growing demand, the federal and provincial governments should focus on strong resource revenues to reduce the public debt, while targeting temporary income support for households facing living-cost pressures, the report said.

In its recent Financial System Review, the Bank of Canada said the share of highly indebted households had risen.

“In Canada, elevated levels of household debt and high house prices remain two key interconnected vulnerabilities,” the bank said in its annual Financial System Review.

INCREASE IN THE POLICY RATE

Following the relaxation of containment measures in late January, Canada has seen large output gains in contact-intensive services and strong contributions from resources sectors, construction, and manufacturing.

But the report has warned about the supply chain disruptions, exacerbated by labour shortages and high inflation. The food and energy price rises are already reducing an average Canadian household’s purchasing power and will negatively impact private spending, even as saving rates return to more normal levels, according to OECD.

OECD said more rate rises from the Bank of Canada could help tame the price pressures and “bring the monetary policy to neutral settings, where it neither stimulates nor weighs on the economy.”

According to the OECD, Canada’s policy rate is projected to increase to 2.5 per cent by early 2023. In case of continuing inflation, the organization forecasted an additional increase in rates.

In June, a second increase of 50-basis points by the Bank of Canada brought the benchmark interest rate to 1.5 per cent.

“We are taking these large steps because inflation has been persistently high, the economy is overheating, and the risk that elevated inflation will become entrenched has increased,” Bank of Canada’s Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry said in his remarks.

STRONG GROWTH TO CONTINUE AMID EXTERNAL SHOCKS

OECD projects Canada’s real GDP is to grow by 3.8 per cent in 2022 and said the country can withstand the economic shocks from the Russia-Ukraine war since it has limited trade links with hard-hit economies.

OECD reported that most economies are relatively tight and are now experiencing labour shortages with a sharp rise in vacancies. Recent data from Statistics Canada showed that the job vacancies climbed to 957,500 in the first quarter, the highest quarterly number on record.

The pandemic resulted in huge declines in international migration which contributed to the labour shortages in some countries.

For Canada, OECD said higher immigration in the country will help ease these labour shortages and the wage pressures in supply-constrained industries.

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Australia plans a social media ban for children under 16

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MELBOURNE, Australia (AP) — The Australian government announced on Thursday what it described as world-leading legislation that would institute an age limit of 16 years for children to start using social media, and hold platforms responsible for ensuring compliance.

“Social media is doing harm to our kids and I’m calling time on it,” Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said.

The legislation will be introduced in Parliament during its final two weeks in session this year, which begin on Nov. 18. The age limit would take effect 12 months after the law is passed, Albanese told reporters.

The platforms including X, TikTok, Instagram and Facebook would need to use that year to work out how to exclude Australian children younger than 16.

“I’ve spoken to thousands of parents, grandparents, aunties and uncles. They, like me, are worried sick about the safety of our kids online,” Albanese said.

The proposal comes as governments around the world are wrestling with how to supervise young people’s use of technologies like smartphones and social media.

Social media platforms would be penalized for breaching the age limit, but under-age children and their parents would not.

“The onus will be on social media platforms to demonstrate they are taking reasonable steps to prevent access. The onus won’t be on parents or young people,” Albanese said.

Antigone Davis, head of safety at Meta, which owns Facebook and Instagram, said the company would respect any age limitations the government wants to introduce.

“However, what’s missing is a deeper discussion on how we implement protections, otherwise we risk making ourselves feel better, like we have taken action, but teens and parents will not find themselves in a better place,” Davis said in a statement.

She added that stronger tools in app stores and operating systems for parents to control what apps their children can use would be a “simple and effective solution.”

X did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Thursday. TikTok declined to comment.

The Digital Industry Group Inc., an advocate for the digital industry in Australia, described the age limit as a “20th Century response to 21st Century challenges.”

“Rather than blocking access through bans, we need to take a balanced approach to create age-appropriate spaces, build digital literacy and protect young people from online harm,” DIGI managing director Sunita Bose said in a statement.

More than 140 Australian and international academics with expertise in fields related to technology and child welfare signed an open letter to Albanese last month opposing a social media age limit as “too blunt an instrument to address risks effectively.”

Jackie Hallan, a director at the youth mental health service ReachOut, opposed the ban. She said 73% of young people across Australia accessing mental health support did so through social media.

“We’re uncomfortable with the ban. We think young people are likely to circumvent a ban and our concern is that it really drives the behavior underground and then if things go wrong, young people are less likely to get support from parents and carers because they’re worried about getting in trouble,” Hallan said.

Child psychologist Philip Tam said a minimum age of 12 or 13 would have been more enforceable.

“My real fear honestly is that the problem of social media will simply be driven underground,” Tam said.

Australian National University lawyer Associate Prof. Faith Gordon feared separating children from there platforms could create pressures within families.

Albanese said there would be exclusions and exemptions in circumstances such as a need to continue access to educational services.

But parental consent would not entitle a child under 16 to access social media.

Earlier this year, the government began a trial of age-restriciton technologies. Australia’s eSafety Commissioner, the online watchdog that will police compliance, will use the results of that trial to provide platforms with guidance on what reasonable steps they can take.

Communications Minister Michelle Rowland said the year-long lead-in would ensure the age limit could be implemented in a “very practical way.”

“There does need to be enhanced penalties to ensure compliance,” Rowland said.

“Every company that operates in Australia, whether domiciled here or otherwise, is expected and must comply with Australian law or face the consequences,” she added.

The main opposition party has given in-principle support for an age limit at 16.

Opposition lawmaker Paul Fletcher said the platforms already had the technology to enforce such an age ban.

“It’s not really a technical viability question, it’s a question of their readiness to do it and will they incur the cost to do it,” Fletcher told Australian Broadcasting Corp.

“The platforms say: ’It’s all too hard, we can’t do it, Australia will become a backwater, it won’t possibly work.’ But if you have well-drafted legislation and you stick to your guns, you can get the outcomes,” Fletcher added.

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A tiny grain of nuclear fuel is pulled from ruined Japanese nuclear plant, in a step toward cleanup

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TOKYO (AP) — A robot that has spent months inside the ruins of a nuclear reactor at the tsunami-hit Fukushima Daiichi plant delivered a tiny sample of melted nuclear fuel on Thursday, in what plant officials said was a step toward beginning the cleanup of hundreds of tons of melted fuel debris.

The sample, the size of a grain of rice, was placed into a secure container, marking the end of the mission, according to Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, which manages the plant. It is being transported to a glove box for size and weight measurements before being sent to outside laboratories for detailed analyses over the coming months.

Plant chief Akira Ono has said it will provide key data to plan a decommissioning strategy, develop necessary technology and robots and learn how the accident had developed.

The first sample alone is not enough and additional small-scale sampling missions will be necessary in order to obtain more data, TEPCO spokesperson Kenichi Takahara told reporters Thursday. “It may take time, but we will steadily tackle decommissioning,” Takahara said.

Despite multiple probes in the years since the 2011 disaster that wrecked the. plant and forced thousands of nearby residents to leave their homes, much about the site’s highly radioactive interior remains a mystery.

The sample, the first to be retrieved from inside a reactor, was significantly less radioactive than expected. Officials had been concerned that it might be too radioactive to be safely tested even with heavy protective gear, and set an upper limit for removal out of the reactor. The sample came in well under the limit.

That’s led some to question whether the robot extracted the nuclear fuel it was looking for from an area in which previous probes have detected much higher levels of radioactive contamination, but TEPCO officials insist they believe the sample is melted fuel.

The extendable robot, nicknamed Telesco, first began its mission August with a plan for a two-week round trip, after previous missions had been delayed since 2021. But progress was suspended twice due to mishaps — the first involving an assembly error that took nearly three weeks to fix, and the second a camera failure.

On Oct. 30, it clipped a sample weighting less than 3 grams (.01 ounces) from the surface of a mound of melted fuel debris sitting on the bottom of the primary containment vessel of the Unit 2 reactor, TEPCO said.

Three days later, the robot returned to an enclosed container, as workers in full hazmat gear slowly pulled it out.

On Thursday, the gravel, whose radioactivity earlier this week recorded far below the upper limit set for its environmental and health safety, was placed into a safe container for removal out of the compartment.

The sample return marks the first time the melted fuel is retrieved out of the containment vessel.

Fukushima Daiichi lost its key cooling systems during a 2011 earthquake and tsunami, causing meltdowns in its three reactors. An estimated 880 tons of fatally radioactive melted fuel remains in them.

The government and TEPCO have set a 30-to-40-year target to finish the cleanup by 2051, which experts say is overly optimistic and should be updated. Some say it would take for a century or longer.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said there have been some delays but “there will be no impact on the entire decommissioning process.”

No specific plans for the full removal of the fuel debris or its final disposal have been decided.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Strong typhoon threatens northern Philippine region still recovering from back-to-back storms

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MANILA, Philippines (AP) — A strong typhoon was forecast to hit the northern Philippines on Thursday, prompting a new round of evacuations in a region still recovering from back-to-back storms a few weeks ago.

Typhoon Yinxing is the 13th to batter the disaster-prone Southeast Asian nation this season.

“I really pity our people but all of them are tough,” Gov. Marilou Cayco of the province of Batanes said by telephone. Her province was ravaged by recent destructive storms and is expected to be affected by Yinxing’s fierce wind and rain.

Tens of thousands of villagers were returning to emergency shelters and disaster-response teams were again put on alert in Cagayan and other northern provinces near the expected path of Yinxing. The typhoon was located about 175 kilometers (109 miles) east of Aparri town in Cagayan province on Thursday morning.

The slow-moving typhoon, locally named Marce, was packing sustained winds of up to 165 kilometers (102 miles) per hour and gusts of up to 205 kph (127 mph) and was forecast to hit or come very near to the coast of Cagayan and outlying islands later Thursday.

The coast guard, army, air force and police were put on alert. Inter-island ferries and cargo services and domestic flights were suspended in northern provinces.

Tropical Storm Trami and Typhoon Kong-rey hit the northern Philippines in recent weeks, leaving at least 151 people dead and affecting nearly 9 million others. More than 14 billion pesos ($241 million) worth of rice, corn and other crops and infrastructure were damaged.

The deaths and destruction from the storms prompted President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to declare a day of national mourning on Monday when he visited the worst-hit province of Batangas, south of the capital, Manila. At least 61 people perished in the coastal province.

Trami dumped one to two months’ worth of rain in just 24 hours in some regions, including in Batangas.

“We want to avoid the loss of lives due to calamities,” Marcos said in Talisay town in Batangas, where he brought key Cabinet members to reassure storm victims of rapid government help. “Storms nowadays are more intense, extensive and powerful.”

In 2013, Typhoon Haiyan, one of the strongest recorded tropical cyclones, left more than 7,300 people dead or missing, flattened entire villages and caused ships to run aground and smash into houses in the central Philippines.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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