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Recession risks put Canada's stock market beat in jeopardy – BNN

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Recession fears are dimming chances that the Canadian market can continue this year’s outperformance.

While the S&P/TSX Composite Index’s drop is less steep than other global indices, a looming economic downturn could test its resilience. Surging oil and gas prices helped boost energy stocks and kept the 9 per cent slide for Canada’s key benchmark from following the S&P 500 Index to its 19 per cent plunge.

Now those energy price surges are fading amid growing concerns about an economic slowdown, sending some investors fleeing from the value-heavy S&P/TSX. Strategists like Macan Nia, Manulife Asset Management’s co-chief investment officer, are focusing on the next move by US policy makers. 

“If there is a pivot in Fed tone where they become less hawkish, then the US markets will rally versus the TSX,” Nia said in an interview. “The outperformance that we have seen in the first half of the year between Canada and the US — Canada could give that up.”

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Energy stocks dominated in the first half of the year amid a commodity boom as investors sought safe havens amid escalating geopolitical risks. Of the top 10 companies with the strongest gains, nine are oil and gas companies. Athabasca Oil Corp. soared 114 per cent and Tourmaline Oil Corp. surged 72 per cent.

Now, that rally has fallen victim to recession fears because of the potential for lower demand if the economy slows. The S&P/TSX slid from its record high in March into a correction, as financials and materials turned negative, while still managing to outpace the tech-heavy S&P 500.

In part, that’s because oil, mining and financial stocks make up more than 60 per cent of the Canadian index. Those found favor with investors amid a revival of enthusiasm for value stocks.

The Canadian market started the year strong with market strategists broadly calling for the S&P/TSX to outperform its US counterpart. By early April, the benchmark had risen to outdo the S&P 500 in its widest quarterly outperformance in 13 years.

As concerns over a recession escalated, the S&P/TSX gave up those gains. While energy still stands tall as the only sector up this year, it’s down 13 per cent from its peak in early June. Materials erased the climb it made earlier in the year and banks tumbled as low as 20 per cent from their record high in February.

Bank of America Corp. equity strategist Ohsung Kwon is still bullish on Canada’s energy sector. He’s projecting that the S&P/TSX is set to outperform the S&P 500 this year, so long as a recession doesn’t ravage the index’s value stocks.

ROOM TO RUN

“Energy still has room to run,” Kwon said in an interview. “Energy stocks are not really pricing in the full benefit of $120 oil and if you look at free cash flow yields for these companies, producers are on average expected to generate 15 per cent free cash flow yield this year compared to the S&P yield of about 5 per cent, so there is still a big valuation discount.”

Other strategists are still convinced that the Canadian market will outperform this year, even if there’s a recession. 

Kurt Reiman, BlackRock Inc.’s chief investment strategist, said energy and materials valuations are low even though their earnings are set for strong growth, and that will propel the S&P/TSX to beat the S&P 500 on an annual basis for the first time since 2016.

“If the risk does grow around a recession and that starts to hit the commodities, then we’ll have a garden-variety selloff,” Reiman said at an advisory conference hosted by Royal Bank of Canada last week. “But our view is that commodity prices are more elevated here and because of the nature of the return of cash to shareholders, we find this to be an attractive relative performer.”

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Canada Goose to get into eyewear through deal with Marchon

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TORONTO – Canada Goose Holdings Inc. says it has signed a deal that will result in the creation of its first eyewear collection.

The deal announced on Thursday by the Toronto-based luxury apparel company comes in the form of an exclusive, long-term global licensing agreement with Marchon Eyewear Inc.

The terms and value of the agreement were not disclosed, but Marchon produces eyewear for brands including Lacoste, Nike, Calvin Klein, Ferragamo, Longchamp and Zeiss.

Marchon plans to roll out both sunglasses and optical wear under the Canada Goose name next spring, starting in North America.

Canada Goose says the eyewear will be sold through optical retailers, department stores, Canada Goose shops and its website.

Canada Goose CEO Dani Reiss told The Canadian Press in August that he envisioned his company eventually expanding into eyewear and luggage.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GOOS)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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TD CEO to retire next year, takes responsibility for money laundering failures

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TORONTO – TD Bank Group, which is mired in a money laundering scandal in the U.S., says chief executive Bharat Masrani will retire next year.

Masrani, who will retire officially on April 10, 2025, says the bank’s, “anti-money laundering challenges,” took place on his watch and he takes full responsibility.

The bank named Raymond Chun, TD’s group head, Canadian personal banking, as his successor.

As part of a transition plan, Chun will become chief operating officer on Nov. 1 before taking over the top job when Masrani steps down at the bank’s annual meeting next year.

TD also announced that Riaz Ahmed, group head, wholesale banking and president and CEO of TD Securities, will retire at the end of January 2025.

TD has taken billions in charges related to ongoing U.S. investigations into the failure of its anti-money laundering program.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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