Key indicators are forecasting Canadians may be on the brink of entering a fall COVID-19 wave.
The past month has seen an increase in positive test cases, a rise in COVID-19 hospitalizations and rising virus levels in wastewater across the country.
The highly mutated new variant BA.2.86 was also detected in Canada for the first time on Tuesday.
Ottawa’s medical officer of health Vera Etches said current higher COVID-19 levels are expected to continue to rise in the coming weeks.
These early warning signs have some wondering whether COVID-19 is making a comeback, and if it is, how bad it will be.
CBC Ottawa spoke with public health experts to get some answers.
“Right now it accounts for about 60 per cent of the current positives we’re seeing so that’s what’s driving this late summer wave,” said Dr. Gerald Evans, chair of the division of infectious diseases at Queen’s University in Kingston, Ont.
“A lot of people haven’t had a booster for about 12 months and have lost a fair degree of the immunity that might have protected them from getting infected.”
Most of us who’ve been watching carefully expected there to be a rise.– Dr. Fahad Razak
Ottawa’s medical officer of health Vera Etches said Thursday it’s not yet clear that subvariants are driving the increase.
“It’s more that we’re in close contact with each other,” she said.
This week on Cross Country Checkup, our Ask Me Anything focuses on the new COVID-19 variant BA.2.86 and what’s next for masking and booster shots. What questions do you have? Fill out the details on this form to get your questions in early.
Dr. Fahad Razak, former scientific director of Ontario’s COVID-19 Science Advisory Table, explained COVID-19 infections have yet to settle into a seasonal pattern like we now expect from RSV and influenza. He said this summer’s rise echoes rises that have occurred in earlier years of the pandemic.
“Most of us who’ve been watching carefully expected there to be a rise,” Razak said. “We know that as the virus continues to evolve and mutate there will be these periodic rises that occur.”
Subvariant EG.5 is just one of several variants in Ottawa’s wastewater right now, according to Tyson Graber, co-lead investigator of the wastewater monitoring project in Ottawa.
Graber has seen a gradual increase in most of these variants in the wastewater over the past four weeks but EG.5 is outpacing the other variants.
“That’s indicative of a COVID-19 wave happening in the city and unsurprisingly that is followed by an increase in hospitalizations that we’re seeing now in Ottawa,” Graber said.
Ottawa Public Health says 177 new COVID-19 cases were reported the week of Aug. 22. (CBC)
This variant has only been identified in a few countries around the world, but its high number of mutations still has health experts concerned.
“This virus has 30 mutations or changes to [its] spike protein, which is the part the antibodies try to grab to take out the virus,” explained Dr. Peter Lin, director of primary care initiatives at the Canadian Heart Research Centre in Toronto.
“So the antibodies we made from the vaccine or previous infections may not be able to grab the spike protein as easily, which means the virus could slip past our defences.”
Everybody is sounding the alarm bells again.– Dr. Peter Lin
Omicron was the last variant that appeared with this many mutations.
“We’re kind of in the same situation,” Lin said. “Everybody is sounding the alarm bells again.”
Not all are sounding the alarm bells quite yet.
“I haven’t seen evidence yet that it has an ability to out compete the other viruses out there. If it can’t do that, then it’s just going to fizzle out,” Evans said.
Health Canada told CBC News Monday it is considering three new vaccines specifically designed to target the subvariant XBB.1.5, which like EG.5, is also part of the Omicron family.
While it is too early to say whether the new vaccines will be able to target BA.2.86, Lin said there is some hope.
Variant BA.2.86 has not yet been detected in Ottawa’s wastewater, but Graber expects it will show up within the next month.
Health experts say masking, staying up to date with vaccinations and staying home when showing symptoms will all be effective in slowing the spike of the wave. (David Horemans/CBC)
Are we entering another wave?
There are different opinions on whether the country is entering a new COVID-19 wave, or simply a rise in cases.
Graber said the increase in COVID-19 viruses he is seeing in Ottawa’s wastewater does indicate the beginning of another wave.
Based on the waste water data alone, we probably won’t be done with this wave until at least October or November.– Tyson Graber
“It’s a foregone conclusion that we are now in a late summer, early fall wave, and that this wave will continue for at least the next couple of months,” he said, adding the increase he’s seeing is not as steep as the early days of previous waves have been.
“Based on the waste water data alone, we probably won’t be done with this wave until at least October or November.”
Researchers measure and share the amount of novel coronavirus in Ottawa’s wastewater. The most recent data is from Aug. 27, 2023. ( (613covid.ca))
Graber said there are a handful of variables that could change this forecasted trajectory, including the coming return to school, an increase in indoor activities, waning immunity, and new variants coming through the door.
Razak does not expect this wave will cause severe disruptions for most Canadians.
“For most people the chances they’ll get really sick are low,” he said. “This is not the crisis we faced in year one, two, or three of the pandemic, but it can still be disruptive. Preventative steps are prudent.”
For Evans, the current increase in COVID-19 cases does not yet indicate we’re entering another wave.
“The curve ball is BA.2.86,” he said. “If it were to really emerge and have a growth advantage, then all bets are off and we might actually see a subsequent pandemic wave.”
When should I get my next booster?
Most experts are advising to hold off on getting a booster until the new vaccines have arrived, which experts say are expected mid-fall.
“The bivalent available now is not going to work very well so that’s why we should wait for the new one,” Lin said.
“The new vaccines made by Pfizer, Moderna and Novavax are designed to go after XBB spike protein, because that was the main virus for most of the year. EG.5 is the son of XBB, they have a lot of things in common, and so the hope is that it will work on that version.”
Evans said the same.
You need a booster. If everybody just abandons getting boosters going forward there’s a high probability we’ll return to a more susceptible population- Dr. Gerald Evans
“If you’re young and healthy and overdue, just wait until the new boosters come out,” he said.
“But if you’re somebody of substantial risk and you’re due for your booster, you should probably get it now. Even current vaccines will protect you from acute infection for a good month or two.”
Generally healthy people who have kept up to date with their boosters will likely have developed a hybrid immunity. Evans specified this doesn’t mean people who have updated boosters are immune to new variants, but it does mean their infections will be less severe, so they can afford to hold off.
Health Canada is reviewing three applications for new COVID-19 vaccine formulations to address new subvariants in circulation. (Lars Hagberg/Canadian Press)
Despite this, he said continued vaccination is still important.
“You need a booster. If everybody just abandons getting boosters going forward there’s a high probability we’ll return to a more susceptible population.”
Evans said Health Canada will likely only approve the new vaccines for children 12 and over but that kids between five and 12 years old are able to get the bivalent booster currently available.
What does this mean for back to school?
Health experts expect the return to school will bring an increase in viral spread, as it has in previous years.
“We’ll see the usual pattern of germ swap once kids go back to school,” Lin said. “But this time we have new variants. All of this virus swapping will happen before new vaccines are available.”
But this could come with some advantages, Evans said, explaining the return to school will also cause an immediate rise in the common cold, which can offer a small amount of protection against COVID-19 infections.
Evans said getting children boosted before going back to class would help to reduce the spread, and advised parents to keep kids home if they’re showing any symptoms.
“It is important as children come together in schools to do that check every day [for respiratory symptoms], and stay home when you’re sick,” Etches said.
Experts anticipate the back-to-school season will mean increased circulation of RSV, influenza and COVID-19. (James Arthur Gekiere/Belga Mag/AFP/Getty Images)
Any chance of mask mandates or lockdowns?
Health experts consulted for this piece agreed that a fall COVID-19 wave would be unlikely to induce mask mandates or lockdowns.
“I don’t think there’s anything that we’re seeing right now that would suggest we should go into lockdown or anything like we’ve seen in the past, in terms of early pandemic public health measures.,” Graber said.
Razak agreed.
“Unless there is significant change in the nature of the virus, I think it’s very unlikely a mask mandate will be something any government in North America or Europe considers,” he said. “A mask mandate at this point would do more harm than good.”
Razak did distinguish between general mask mandates and those for higher risk environments like hospitals, adding that the latter is something he hopes provinces will consider.
As it is, Razak said he expects mask use to be very low this winter.
“There is a sense that the pandemic has passed,” Razak said. “This is going to be a very difficult challenge for public health leadership to get people to get vaccinated.”
All health experts consulted assured masking and vaccination continue to be the best ways to reduce the spread of the virus.
“Regardless of the variant, there are things we can do to decrease spread of respiratory illness,” Etches said.
“Wearing a mask as we get back to work or school is one thing we can do to help decrease transmission, keeping our hands clean, not touching our face with unclean hands, these are things to remind ourselves to practice again as we head into the fall.”
Demands for government intervention in Air Canada labour talks could negatively affect airline competition in Canada, the CEO of travel company Transat AT Inc. said.
“The extension of such an extraordinary intervention to Air Canada would be an undeniable competitive advantage to the detriment of other Canadian airlines,” Annick Guérard told analysts on an earnings conference call on Thursday.
“The time and urgency is now. It is time to restore healthy competition in Canada,” she added.
Air Canada has asked the federal government to be ready to intervene and request arbitration as early as this weekend to avoid disruptions.
Comments on the potential Air Canada pilot strike or lock out came as Transat reported third-quarter financial results.
Guérard recalled Transat’s labour negotiations with its flight attendants earlier this year, which the company said it handled without asking for government intervention.
The airline’s 2,100 flight attendants voted 99 per cent in favour of a strike mandate and twice rejected tentative deals before approving a new collective agreement in late February.
As the collective agreement for Air Transat pilots ends in June next year, Guérard anticipates similar pressure to increase overall wages as seen in Air Canada’s negotiations, but reckons it will come out “as a win, win, win deal.”
“The pilots are preparing on their side, we are preparing on our side and we’re confident that we’re going to come up with a reasonable deal,” she told analysts when asked about the upcoming negotiations.
The parent company of Air Transat reported it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31. The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.
Revenue totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.
On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.
It attributed reduced revenues to lower airline unit revenues, competition, industry-wide overcapacity and economic uncertainty.
Air Transat is also among the airlines facing challenges related to the recall of Pratt & Whitney turbofan jet engines for inspection and repair.
The recall has so far grounded six aircraft, Guérard said on the call.
“We have agreed to financial compensation for grounded aircraft during the 2023-2024 period,” she said. “Alongside this financial compensation, Pratt & Whitney will provide us with two additional spare engines, which we intend to monetize through a sell and lease back transaction.”
Looking ahead, the CEO said she expects consumer demand to remain somewhat uncertain amid high interest rates.
“We are currently seeing ongoing pricing pressure extending into the winter season,” she added. Air Transat is not planning on adding additional aircraft next year but anticipates stability.
“(2025) for us will be much more stable than 2024 in terms of fleet movements and operation, and this will definitely have a positive effect on cost and customer satisfaction as well,” the CEO told analysts.
“We are more and more moving away from all the disruption that we had to go through early in 2024,” she added.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
