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Easy does it: Calgary real estate market settling into 'the new normal', says CREB – Calgary Herald

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Calgary housing prices are expected to stabilize in 2020 as the city’s real estate market settles into what is likely a “new normal,” the Calgary Real Estate Board said Tuesday.


Calgary housing prices are expected to stabilize in 2020 as the city’s real estate market settles into what is likely a “new normal,” the Calgary Real Estate Board said Tuesday.


File / Postmedia

Calgary housing prices are expected to stabilize in 2020 as the city’s real estate market settles into what is likely a “new normal,” the Calgary Real Estate Board said Tuesday.

Six years after the oil price crash, Calgary’s real estate market is slowly moving towards more balanced conditions, said CREB chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie at the organization’s annual forecast event. However, detached home prices remain nearly eight per cent lower than 2014 highs and the days of buying a house and selling it for a tidy profit five years later aren’t coming back anytime soon.

“It’s not going to be like what we had prior to 2014,” Lurie told reporters. “We’re moving into slower, more normal conditions. When you compare it to other markets across the country, we’re looking a lot more like them.”

According to CREB, overall sales activity in 2020 is expected to improve by two per cent over 2019. That combined with easing inventories should help slow the pace of decline in the average benchmark price for a home to just 0.5 per cent in 2020 (versus the larger-than-expected 3.3 per cent decline in the benchmark price that occurred in 2019).

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Driving the stabilization is the improvement at the lower end of the Calgary real estate market, Lurie said. In 2019, sales growth in the under $500,000 market grew by seven per cent, while resale sales for the over $500,000 segment declined by nine per cent. The most affordable areas of the city — such as the northeast, southeast and far north — saw the least amount of price decline in 2019 while the more expensive areas, particularly the city centre, saw the steepest drops in price.

While improving conditions in the lower end of a market can eventually spill into the upper end of the market, this is not expected to occur over the next year, Lurie said. Part of the problem is that while the city’s unemployment rate has improved from 2016, it is still high (6.9 per cent in November) compared to historic norms. The employment situation isn’t expected to improve significantly in 2020, and most of the gains that have been made so far have been made in education and health care, not in the higher paid scientific and technical occupations.


In 2019, home sales in the under-$500,000 range remained strong, despite overall weakness in the market.

File /

Postmedia

“We don’t have the same type of job growth in those higher paid sort of salaries that we’ve seen historically, so for that reason alone it will take a lot longer to see those improvements filter through the higher end of the market,” Lurie said.

Lurie said there are risks that could threaten CREB’s 2020 forecast. If recent job losses in the Calgary market continue into 2020, it will impact consumer confidence and housing market activity.

In addition, if new-home construction projects exceed anticipated demand growth, this will slow the downward adjustment in overall housing supply and impact price stabilization. According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, there were 3,101 housing starts in Alberta in December 2019 — a 117-per-cent increase from December 2018.

Still, CREB CEO Alan Tennant said evidence of market stabilization is a reason for optimism, and added he believes “the new normal” is nothing to be afraid of.

“Normal may not be sexy and fun, but there’s still a lot of business to be done there,” Tennant said. “That’s the start of maybe the dominoes starting to fall in the right direction.”

astephenson@postmedia.com

On Twitter: @AmandaMsteph

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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