Canada’s markets have been flooded with cheap money, causing a buying frenzy across the country. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows record real estate sales in November. Unlike previous boom-time periods, the rise in home sales wasn’t confined to a few hot markets. All but two major cities across the country are seeing double digit growth in home sales.
Canadian Real Estate Sales Hit A New Record In November
Canadian real estate sales are showing a small seasonal slowing, but are still up huge from last year. There were 55,343 seasonally adjusted sales in November, down 1.6% from the month before. Unadjusted, there were 49,564 home sales, up 32.1% from the same month last year. The seasonal adjustment shows a little bit of the pent-up demand is catching up, but the annual gain was so large – it’s mostly insignificant. This was the most home sales for the month across the country in the history of the index.
Canadian Real Estate Sales Change
The 12-month percent change of unadjusted real estate sales for November.Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.
Small Canadian Cities Lead In Real Estate Sales Growth
Canada’s smallest real estate markets are actually leading in growth. Regina saw the biggest annual gain with 294 sales in November, up 77.1% from last year. Saguenay came in second with 117 sales, up 62.5% from last year. Rising sales in secondary cities confirms the pandemic may have accelerated migration.
Only Two Real Estate Markets Didn’t See Double Digit Sales Growth
No major real estate market in Canada is seeing fewer sales, and only two markets saw less than double digit growth. Trois Rivieres saw the lowest annual growth with 119 sales in November, flat from the same month last year. Thunder Bay was in second with 172 sales, up 3.6% from last year. Flat is flat, but Thunder Bay’s growth would be considered substantial in any other year. That’s how out of whack things are right now.
Greater Toronto Real Estate Sales Grow Over 23%
Greater Toronto real estate sales to contrast is seeing a bigger slowdown, and smaller than average growth. There were 9,209 seasonally adjusted sales, down 2.1% from the same month last year. Unadjusted, there were 8,766 sales, up 23.6% from the same month last year. The seasonal slowdown is larger than usual, but the annual gain is still one of the biggest on record. Even so, the annual increase in sales was one of the smallest in the country.
Vancouver Real Estate Sales Increase Over 23%
Greater Vancouver real estate’s seasonal slowdown was a little bigger than Toronto, but the annual gains were still huge. There were 3,268 seasonally adjusted sales in November, down 4.7% from the month before. Unadjusted, there were 3,131 sales, up 23% from last year. The monthly decline shows some pent-up demand is catching up, but the annual gain is still very large. Even if it’s one of the smallest in the country.
When one or two markets are seeing increased real estate sales, regional pressures are likely at work. Canada’s population is fast growing, housing takes a long time to build, and there’s so many areas with fast growing employment. When real estate sales are soaring against declining population, and higher unemployment – this likely has to do with an oversupply of credit.
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TORONTO – One expert predicts Ottawa‘s changes to mortgage rules will help spur demand among potential homebuyers but says policies aimed at driving new supply are needed to address the “core issues” facing the market.
The federal government’s changes, set to come into force mid-December, include a higher price cap for insured mortgages to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.
The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.
CIBC Capital Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal calls it a “significant” move likely to accelerate the recovery of the housing market, a process already underway as interest rates have begun to fall.
However, he says in a note that policymakers should aim to “prevent that from becoming too much of a good thing” through policies geared toward the supply side.
Tal says the main issue is the lack of supply available to respond to Canada’s rapidly increasing population, particularly in major cities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17,2024.
OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes sold in August fell compared with a year ago as the market remained largely stuck in a holding pattern despite borrowing costs beginning to come down.
The association says the number of homes sold in August fell 2.1 per cent compared with the same month last year.
On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, national home sales edged up 1.3 per cent from July.
CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart says that with forecasts of lower interest rates throughout the rest of this year and into 2025, “it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country.”
The national average sale price for August amounted to $649,100, a 0.1 per cent increase compared with a year earlier.
The number of newly listed properties was up 1.1 per cent month-over-month.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.
Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.
She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.
The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.
One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
