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The UK economy just had its worst year in three centuries – CNN

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That means the Covid-19 pandemic has effectively wiped out all growth in the United Kingdom over the last 7 years, returning the economy close to the size it was in 2013.
The 9.9% slump in UK GDP was less severe than expected but still surpassed the 9.7% collapse experienced during the Great Depression in 1921, making it the worst annual drop since 1709, according to a Bank of England database. That was when Europe’s harshest winter in 500 years caused widespread death and destruction.
“This time it’s a pandemic to blame whereas back then, it was a Great Frost, which saw ice in the North Sea, and the War of Spanish Succession … which was doing the damage,” wrote Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes in a research note on Friday.
There were some signs of improvement in the final months of 2020, with GDP estimated to have increased by 1% in the fourth quarter, following record growth in the third, according to the Office for National Statistics.
But there were big swings in output between October and December, largely tracking the level of restrictions imposed to contain the coronavirus.
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The United Kingdom suffered one of the worst recessions among major economies last year. Germany, for example, held up better in the pandemic than it did during the global financial crisis. Provisional estimates suggest Europe’s biggest economy contracted by 5% last year. EU GDP, meanwhile, is expected to have shrunk 6.4%, according to Eurostat.
The United States fared even better by comparison, with GDP decreasing by 3.5% from the prior year.
“Today’s figures show that the economy has experienced a serious shock as a result of the pandemic, which has been felt by countries around the world,” UK finance minister Rishi Sunak said in a statement. “While there are some positive signs of the economy’s resilience over the winter, we know that the current lockdown continues to have a significant impact on many people and businesses.”
The new national lockdown in the United Kingdom, imposed on January 5, is expected to hit the economy hard in the first quarter of 2021, reversing the return to growth in the fourth quarter of 2020.
“It seems that a double dip [recession] was merely delayed rather than avoided outright,” Sam Miley, an economist at the London-based Centre for Economics and Business Research said in a note on Friday.
Disruption to EU-UK trade following the end of the Brexit transition period on December 31 is also weighing on activity.
British exporters have struggled to get their products into Europe due to border delays and glitches in new customs systems. Companies selling fresh produce, such as live shellfish and meat, have in some cases had to discard their products as a result. Even once the dust settles, new trading arrangements are expected to add additional costs to UK companies, which rely on Europe for a large portion of their imports and exports.
The pandemic has left more than a quarter of British adults financially vulnerable, with too much debt or not enough savings to cope with a “negative life event” such as redundancy, loss of working hours, or ill health, according to a survey published on Thursday by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).
The survey also found that nearly 40% of British adults suffered financially as a consequence of the pandemic, with younger workers, Black people and the self-employed among the hardest hit.
But half of adults in the FCA survey said the pandemic had not disturbed their finances, while some 15% of adults were financially better off. That could lay the foundation for a savings-led boost to demand, according to Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane, who pointed to high savings rates among UK households in an opinion piece published in The Daily Mail on Thursday.
“The rapid rollout of the vaccination programme across the UK means a decisive corner has been turned in the battle against Covid,” he said. “A decisive corner is about to be turned for the economy too, with enormous amounts of pent-up financial energy waiting to be released, like a coiled spring,” he added.
— Will Godley contributed to this article.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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