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Bloomberg New Economy: Globalization Runs Aground in Suez Canal – Bloomberg

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In the complex networks of globalization, nodes can simultaneously become “choke points,” notes Wharton School business professor Stephen J. Kobrin. When any one of them fails, it threatens the entire network—a reality that became almost comically apparent this week when a container vessel the length of the Empire State Building wedged its bulbous nose into a bank of the Suez Canal, blocking the waterway and causing a shipping backup north to the Mediterranean, south to the Red Sea, and beyond.

Puny by comparison, the image of a digger trying to extricate the colossal vessel became an instant social media meme. More prosaically, the stranded Ever Given has become an apt symbol for the fate of globalization, the latest wave of which was spurred—somewhat ironically—by the invention of the shipping container in 1956. (The Ever Given can transport up to 20,000 of these big metal boxes, each of which can fit on a tractor-trailer.) 

If the 2008 financial crisis exposed the risks of contagion as a result of global financial integration, the pandemic has highlighted the perils of unbridled interdependence in trade. The first shock helped immiserate the middle classes across the industrialized West and led to a populist backlash against globalization. Covid-19 has damaged the globalization project even further by highlighting the fragility of supply chains, as well as the mounting risks of viral contagion in an interconnected world.

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A digger clears the area around the bow of the stuck Ever Given on March 25.
Source: Suez Canal Authority

This week in the New Economy

Global manufacturing has become over-concentrated, reflecting a corporate obsession with cost and efficiency over safety and sustainability. When the coronavirus took off in the U.S., it exposed the fact that almost half of the country’s personal protective equipment is made in factories in China. Suddenly, those production nodes became choke points.

Now that an unexpectedly swift economic recovery seems to be taking hold, nodes are seizing up everywhere. Semiconductor foundries can’t keep up with demand from carmakers. Ports are congested, especially at America’s largest in Los Angeles, and shipping containers are in short supply. The Japanese-owned Ever Given has exacerbated these problems by severing a critical artery that usually carries 12% of global trade. 

Advocates of globalization tend to focus on linkages enabled by digital technologies, like Zoom video conferencing, that have kept office workers busy during Covid lockdowns. “I am a technological determinist,” declared Tom Friedman, the New York Times author of “The World is Flat.” He adds that “technology is not just interconnecting the world: it’s actually making the world interdependent.”

Excessively so, caution the skeptics. And while the march of technology may be inevitable, the way production has become ultra-specialized is fueling dangerous uncertainties.

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A chip wafer made by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.

It turns out that almost 90% of the most advanced semiconductors are assembled by one company—Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.—which makes the island nation a strategically important choke point (it’s already a political one) in the technological Cold War between the U.S. and China. Beijing has deliberately created a chokehold over the production of rare earths used in a wide array of high tech products, and has talked about restricting their export to the U.S.

The Suez Canal blockage, meanwhile, has underscored China’s own vulnerability to maritime node disruptions. As my Bloomberg News colleagues David Fickling and Anjani Trivedi report, China imports amost three-quarters of the oil it consumes, as well as about four-fifths of the iron ore behind its frantic infrastructure buildout.

The insecurity these facts generate is in part driving the nation’s destabilizing efforts to assert control over the South China Sea.

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Stephen J. Kobrin 
Photographer: Rick Maiman/Bloomberg News

In the latest installment of our Bloomberg New Economy Conversations series this week, we highlighted how there is no future for our planet without the kind of globalized effort that produced breakthrough Covid vaccines. Scientists and researchers all over the world have worked together to develop diagnostics and therapies that will (hopefully) soon return the global economy to something approaching normal.

A smaller, yet similar international effort is underway in the Suez Canal to refloat the Ever Given

In too many ways, globalization is coming to be defined more by its risks (the choke points) than its benefits (the linkages). Fixing that, as Professor Kobrin argues, will mean finding a better balance between economic independence and integration. The challenge will be to find that harmony without upsetting the project altogether.

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    Japanese government maintains view that economy is in moderate recovery – ForexLive

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    Can falling interest rates improve fairness in the economy? – The Globe and Mail

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    The ‘poor borrower’ narrative rules in media coverage of the Bank of Canada and high interest rates, and that’s appropriate.

    A lot of people have been financially slammed by the rate hikes of the past couple of years, which have made it much more expensive to carry a mortgage, lines of credit and other borrowing. The latest from the Bank of Canada suggests rate cuts will come as soon as this summer, which on the whole would be a welcome development. It’s not just borrowers who need relief – the boarder economy has slowed to a crawl because of high borrowing costs.

    But high rates are also a big win for some people. Specifically, those who have little or no debt and who have a significant amount of money sitting in savings products and guaranteed investment certificates. The country’s most well-off people, in other words.

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    Lower rates will mean diminished returns for savers and less interest paid by borrowers. It’s a stretch to say lower rates will improve financial inequality, but they do add a little more fairness to our financial system.

    Wealth inequality is often presented as the chasm between well-off people able to pay for houses, vehicles, trips and high-end restaurant meals and those who are driving record use of food banks and living in tent cities. High interest rates and inflation have given us more nuance in wealth inequality. People fortunate enough to have bought houses in recent years are staggering as they try to manage mortgage payments that have risen by hundreds of dollars a month. You can see their struggles in rising numbers of late payments and debt defaults.

    Rates are expected to fall in a measured, gradual way, which means their impact on financial inequality won’t be an instant gamechanger. But if the Bank of Canada cuts 0.25 of a percentage point off the overnight rate in June and again in July, many borrowers will start noticing how much less interest they’re paying, and savers will find themselves earning less.


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    Rob’s personal finance reading list

    Snowballs and avalanches

    A look at two strategies for paying off debt – the debt avalanche and the debt snowball. I’ll go with the avalanche.

    How not to ruin your kitchen countertop

    Anyone who has renovated a kitchen lately knows how expensive stone countertops can be. Look after yours by protecting it from a few common kitchen items.

    What you need to know about stock market corrections

    A helpful explanation of stock market corrections. It seems an opportune time to look at corrections, given how volatile stocks have been lately. Like scouts, investors should always be prepared.

    Put that snack back

    Food inflation requires more careful grocery shopping. Here’s a roundup of food products – cookies, snacks, ice cream – that don’t taste as good as they used to. Food companies have always adjusted their recipes from time to time. Is this happening more because of inflation’s impact on raw material prices? A U.S. list – most products are available are familiar to Canadians, too.


    Ask Rob

    Q: I have Tangerine children’s accounts for my kids. Can you suggest a better alternative?

    A: The rate on the Tangerine children’s account is 0.8 per cent, which actually compares well to the big banks and their comparable accounts. For kids aged 13 and up, check out something new called the JA Money Card.

    Do you have a question for me? Send it my way. Sorry I can’t answer every one personally. Questions and answers are edited for length and clarity.


    Tools and guides

    A comprehensive guide on how to build a good credit score.


    In the social sphere

    Social Media: An offbeat way of fighting high food costs

    Watch: Is now the hardest time ever to buy a home?

    Money-Free Zone: Singer-songwriter Maggie Rogers has a new album called Don’t Forget Me and it’s generating some buzz because it’s a great listen. Smooth vocals and a laid back countryish vibe that hits a faster pace on one of my favourite cuts, Drunk.


    More PF from The Globe

    – He keeps ‘a few thousand in crisp new bills’ at home – is that a good idea?

    – The pension pivot: Employers recognizing that workers need help with debt as much as retirement

    – Her bond ETF is ‘a dud and not promising at all’ – should she sell?

    – Despite high fees, Canadians remain perplexingly loyal to mutual funds. Here’s why


    More Rob Carrick and money coverage

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    Even more coverage from Rob Carrick:

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    Economy

    LIVE: Freeland joins panel on Indigenous economy – CTV News Montreal

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    LIVE: Freeland joins panel on Indigenous economy  CTV News Montreal

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