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Canada's economy expands 3.1% in Q1 as exports drag – BNN

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Canada’s households and businesses showed resilience at the start of the year despite a drop in exports that dragged economic growth down below expectations. 

Gross domestic product expanded by a 3.1 per cent annualized pace in the first quarter as exports fell due to temporary supply constraints in the oil sector. Domestic demand, however, jumped.

The expansion was less than the 5.2 per cent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists, and weaker than preliminary data from Statistics Canada suggested. It was also down from a revised 6.6 per cent annualized rate in the final three months of last year.

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Wednesday’s first-quarter data was nonetheless in line with Bank of Canada forecasts and is unlikely to alter the path for interest rate hikes. Markets expect a second half-percentage-point increase this week as officials move aggressively to wrestle inflation down from three-decade highs.

“Inflation remains the focus and that’s why we’re likely to get 50-bp hikes at each of the next two policy meetings, starting with tomorrow,” Benjamin Reitzes, head of Canadian rates and macro strategy at Bank of Montreal, said by email. 

The Canadian dollar reversed losses from earlier in the day after the report, and was trading 0.1 per cent higher at CUS$1.2641 per U.S. dollar at 9:56 a.m. in Toronto.

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Exports fell by an annualized 9.4 per cent at the start of 2022, in part due to a series of production disruptions in Canada’s oil sector that included COVID-19 shutdowns, cold weather issues and planned maintenance.

Domestic demand accelerated to 4.8 per cent annualized, up from 3.7 per cent in the fourth quarter on the back of stronger consumption and investment, in both housing and other sectors.

The numbers suggest households and businesses continued to spend, despite restrictions meant to contain the spread of the omicron variant, and rebounded quickly as authorities eased the lockdowns in February and March.

On a monthly basis, GDP rose for a 10th straight time in March, increasing by a stronger-than-expected 0.7 per cent. The expansion slowed in April, with Statistics Canada reporting a preliminary estimate of 0.2 per cent growth for the month.

Most components of domestic demand sped up in the first quarter. Consumption grew at an annualized pace of 2.9 per cent at the start of the year, up from 2 per cent in the fourth quarter, even with the restrictions. 

Household spending was helped by a jump in worker compensation, which was up 3.8 per cent on a non-annualized basis thanks to “significant” wage growth, the statistics agency said. Excluding the third quarter of 2020, that’s the fastest pace since 1981.

Much of the gain in compensation wasn’t even spent, with the savings rate increasing to 8.1 per cent in the three-month period, up from the end of last year.

While oil volumes fell in the quarter, the nation’s economy still generated more receipts from the sector thanks to higher prices. Growth in nominal output rose 3.7 per cent on a non-annualized basis due to higher wages and profits.

Investment in housing jumped to an annualized 18.1 per cent in the first three months, up from 12.4 per cent in the fourth quarter. Spending in non-residential investment slowed slightly but remained at a robust 9 per cent annualized growth.

The nation’s economy also got a boost from higher inventory build up at the start of the year.

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China Wants Everyone to Trade In Their Old Cars, Fridges to Help Save Its Economy – Bloomberg

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China’s world-beating electric vehicle industry, at the heart of growing trade tensions with the US and Europe, is set to receive a big boost from the government’s latest effort to accelerate growth.

That’s one takeaway from what Beijing has revealed about its plan for incentives that will encourage Chinese businesses and households to adopt cleaner technologies. It’s widely expected to be one of this year’s main stimulus programs, though question-marks remain — including how much the government will spend.

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German Business Outlook Hits One-Year High as Economy Heals – BNN Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — German business sentiment improved to its highest level in a year — reinforcing recent signs that Europe’s largest economy is exiting two years of struggles.

An expectations gauge by the Ifo institute rose to 89.9. in April from a revised 87.7 the previous month. That exceeds the 88.9 median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. A measure of current conditions also advanced.

“Sentiment has improved at companies in Germany,” Ifo President Clemens Fuest said. “Companies were more satisfied with their current business. Their expectations also brightened. The economy is stabilizing, especially thanks to service providers.”

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A stronger global economy and the prospect of looser monetary policy in the euro zone are helping drag Germany out of the malaise that set in following Russia’s attack on Ukraine. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said last week that the country may have “turned the corner,” while Chancellor Olaf Scholz has also expressed optimism, citing record employment and retreating inflation.

There’s been a particular shift in the data in recent weeks, with the Bundesbank now estimating that output rose in the first quarter, having only a month ago foreseen a contraction that would have ushered in a first recession since the pandemic.

Even so, the start of the year “didn’t go great,” according to Fuest. 

“What we’re seeing at the moment confirms the forecasts, which are saying that growth will be weak in Germany, but at least it won’t be negative,” he told Bloomberg Television. “So this is the stabilization we expected. It’s not a complete recovery. But at least it’s a start.”

Monthly purchasing managers’ surveys for April brought more cheer this week as Germany returned to expansion for the first time since June 2023. Weak spots remain, however — notably in industry, which is still mired in a slump that’s being offset by a surge in services activity.

“We see an improving worldwide economy,” Fuest said. “But this doesn’t seem to reach German manufacturing, which is puzzling in a way.”

Germany, which was the only Group of Seven economy to shrink last year and has been weighing on the wider region, helped private-sector output in the 20-nation euro area strengthen this month, S&P Global said.

–With assistance from Joel Rinneby, Kristian Siedenburg and Francine Lacqua.

(Updates with more comments from Fuest starting in sixth paragraph.)

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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Parallel economy: How Russia is defying the West’s boycott

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When Moscow resident Zoya, 62, was planning a trip to Italy to visit her daughter last August, she saw the perfect opportunity to buy the Apple Watch she had long dreamed of owning.

Officially, Apple does not sell its products in Russia.

The California-based tech giant was one of the first companies to announce it would exit the country in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

But the week before her trip, Zoya made a surprise discovery while browsing Yandex.Market, one of several Russian answers to Amazon, where she regularly shops.

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Not only was the Apple Watch available for sale on the website, it was cheaper than in Italy.

Zoya bought the watch without a moment’s delay.

The serial code on the watch that was delivered to her home confirmed that it was manufactured by Apple in 2022 and intended for sale in the United States.

“In the store, they explained to me that these are genuine Apple products entering Russia through parallel imports,” Zoya, who asked to be only referred to by her first name, told Al Jazeera.

“I thought it was much easier to buy online than searching for a store in an unfamiliar country.”

Nearly 1,400 companies, including many of the most internationally recognisable brands, have since February 2022 announced that they would cease or dial back their operations in Russia in protest of Moscow’s military aggression against Ukraine.

But two years after the invasion, many of these companies’ products are still widely sold in Russia, in many cases in violation of Western-led sanctions, a months-long investigation by Al Jazeera has found.

Aided by the Russian government’s legalisation of parallel imports, Russian businesses have established a network of alternative supply chains to import restricted goods through third countries.

The companies that make the products have been either unwilling or unable to clamp down on these unofficial distribution networks.

 

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