Reviews and recommendations are unbiased and products are independently selected. Postmedia may earn an affiliate commission from purchases made through links on this page.
Forecasting a constantly changing environment like the economy can be challenging, with numerous uncertainties and risks. At any time, a new data point could come out and turn everything on its head.
Even still, the Conference Board of Canada released its forecast last week for the St. Catharines-Niagara economy, showing an anticipated growth of 4.4 per cent in 2022, followed by a 2.6 increase in 2023.
It’s an optimistic outlook, but one Viktor Cicman said is feasible, especially when compared to where the region was at the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Because of such a large decline that happened in 2020, one would expect, just naturally, that if things start to pick-up, nearly back to where it was, you’re going to get strong growth rate. That’s what happened last year,” said Cicman, an economist with CBoC.
In 2021, the real GDP growth in St. Catharines-Niagara reached 6 per cent — which Cicman credits to the strength of the second half of the year — almost offsetting the 6.1 decline in 2020.
And that has continued into this year. Despite communities still battling COVID-19, the lifting of public health restrictions and high vaccination numbers has enabled the region to grow. Cicman said each wave of the pandemic seems to be impacting the economy less and less, leading to optimism for the upcoming fall and winter seasons.
“There is a lot of pent-up demand for services or going out to places, restaurants, hotels, tourism — despite some of the virus still around, despite some of the costs increasing,” said Cicman. “So that’s really good.”
As part of the research, Cicman said they look at the output from each sector and historical data, including employment, housing, population, construction, immigration and upcoming projects. Every section is examined, in 11 major cities across Canada, to determine the board’s forecasts for economic growth.
For Niagara, tourism was a key element of the CBoC outlook. As those numbers continue to recover, the increasing focus on vehicle travel has also helped. While the price of gas has gone up, Cicman said people are taking in that cost but are still wanting to travel after two years of lockdowns.
“If this was an airport destination — and it still is, so the international travel from outside America will take awhile to recover — but the vehicle travel will help that,” he said. “The numbers have been pretty good so far. A lot of people travel within the province to Niagara, a lot of people from America to Niagara.”
And while the real estate market has slowed down from Niagara’s pandemic peak, with three months of decreasing sales, demand is high, with the region remaining a “desirable area.”
The pandemic impacted the region’s immigration, limiting the number of foreign students and migrant workers who are “important parts of the labour market,” but Cicman said he expects that to recover.
Manufacturing has continued to remain vital to the economy, with solid growth throughout 2021.
“They’ve recovered quite well and they’re still always employing lots of people,” said Cicman
One short-term element the forecast considered was the Canada Summer Games taking place in Niagara and while it is not sustainable long-term, Cicman said it will play a part in getting people back to the region. It could also help locally, in encouraging residents to get out into the community and support local events.
But, at the same time, Cicman said there is always the potential that “maybe our recovery isn’t going to be as high as we may have put in the forecast,” whether that’s due to inflation or higher interest rates. He said, for example, both supply and labour could see a negative impact, despite additional demand.
“A lot of the people that were working before the pandemic, and there were signs of shortages already, haven’t all returned. So that put a bit of a damper on how much can actually grow,” said Cicman. “Even if there is demand, and they just don’t have enough staff to provide all the services, that will also affect them.”
There are pluses, minuses and caveats in all directions, which makes it challenging to forecast what will happen. But regardless, compared to where St. Catharines-Niagara was in 2020, Cicman said “it is recovering now,” and doing “quite well.”
Taiwan's Economy Could Take Serious Damage if China Trade Hit Persists – Bloomberg
In an Unequal Economy, the Poor Face Inflation Now and Job Loss Later – The New York Times
For Theresa Clarke, a retiree in New Canaan, Conn., the rising cost of living means not buying Goldfish crackers for her disabled daughter because a carton costs $11.99 at her local Stop & Shop. It means showering at the YMCA to save on her hot water bill. And it means watching her bank account dwindle to $50 because, as someone on a fixed income who never made much money to start with, there aren’t many other places she can trim her spending as prices rise.
“There is nothing to cut back on,” she said.
Jordan Trevino, 28, who recently took a better paying job in advertising in Los Angeles with a $100,000 salary, is economizing in little ways — ordering a cheaper entree when out to dinner, for example. But he is still planning a wedding next year and a honeymoon in Italy.
And David Schoenfeld, who made about $250,000 in retirement income and consulting fees last year and has about $5 million in savings, hasn’t pared back his spending. He has just returned from a vacation in Greece, with his daughter and two of his grandchildren.
“People in our group are not seeing this as a period of sacrifice,” said Mr. Schoenfeld, who lives in Sharon, Mass., and is a member of a group called Responsible Wealth, a network of rich people focused on inequality that pushes for higher taxes, among other stances. “We notice it’s expensive, but it’s kind of like: I don’t really care.”
Higher-income households built up savings and wealth during the early stages of the pandemic as they stayed at home and their stocks, houses and other assets rose in value. Between those stockpiles and solid wage growth, many have been able to keep spending even as costs climb. But data and anecdotes suggest that lower-income households, despite the resilient job market, are struggling more profoundly with inflation.
That divergence poses a challenge for the Federal Reserve, which is hoping that higher interest rates will slow consumer spending and ease pressure on prices across the economy. Already, there are signs that poorer families are cutting back. If richer families don’t pull back as much — if they keep going on vacations, dining out and buying new cars and second homes — many prices could keep rising. The Fed might need to raise interest rates even more to bring inflation under control, and that could cause a sharper slowdown.
In that case, poorer families will almost certainly bear the brunt again, because low-wage workers are often the first to lose hours and jobs. The bifurcated economy, and the policy decisions that stem from it, could become a double whammy for them, inflicting higher costs today and unemployment tomorrow.
“That’s the perfect storm, if unemployment increases,” said Mark Brown, chief executive of West Houston Assistance Ministries, which provides food, rental assistance and other forms of aid to people in need. “So many folks are so very close to the edge.”
America’s poor have spent part of the savings they amassed during coronavirus lockdowns, and their wages are increasingly struggling to keep up with — or falling behind — price increases. Because such a big chunk of their budgets is devoted to food and housing, lower-income families have less room to cut back before they have to stop buying necessities. Some are taking on credit card debt, cutting back on shopping and restaurant meals, putting off replacing their cars or even buying fewer groceries.
But while lower-income families spend more of each dollar they earn, the rich and middle classes have so much more money that they account for a much bigger share of spending in the overall economy: The top two-fifths of the income distribution account for about 60 percent of spending in the economy, the bottom two-fifths about 22 percent. That means the rich can continue to fuel the economy even as the poor pull back, a potential difficulty for policymakers.
The Federal Reserve has been lifting interest rates rapidly since March to try to slow consumer spending and raise the cost of borrowing for companies, which will in turn lead to fewer business expansions, less hiring and slower wage growth. The goal is to slow the economy enough to lower inflation but not so much that it causes a painful recession.
But job growth accelerated unexpectedly in July, with wages climbing rapidly. Consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, has cooled, but Americans continue to open their wallets for vacations, restaurant meals and other services. If solid demand and tight labor market conditions continue, they could help to keep inflation rapid and make it more difficult for the Fed to cool the economy without continuing its string of quick rate increases. That could make widespread layoffs more likely.
“The one, singular worry is the jobs market — if demand is constrained to the point that companies have to start laying off workers, that’s what hits Main Street,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at the job market data provider ADP. “That’s what hits low-income workers.”
Lower-income people are already hurting. Mr. Brown’s organization has seen more requests for help in recent months, he said, as local families fall behind on their bills. The size of the typical request has gone up, too, from a few hundred dollars to a few thousand. And he has noticed financial pain creeping up the income spectrum.
Mr. Brown’s observations are backed up by government data: About 12 percent of households reported they were struggling to get enough to eat in early July, up from about 10 percent at the beginning of the year, according to the Census Bureau.
Families can’t easily cut back what they spend on rent, gas or electricity as those prices climb, said Brian Greene, chief executive of the Houston Food Bank, which provides food to Mr. Brown’s organization and other charities across the region. So they cut back on food.
“Food insecurity isn’t about food,” Mr. Greene said. “Food insecurity is about income.”
Many poorer families’ incomes held up relatively well early in the pandemic because government aid — expanded unemployment benefits, stimulus checks and other programs — helped offset lost wages when businesses shut down. Then, as the economy reopened, pay soared for restaurant workers, delivery drivers and other low-wage workers.
But pandemic aid programs have ended and wage growth is slowing in many sectors — average hourly earnings in leisure and hospitality, which rose rapidly last year, actually fell in July from a month earlier for rank-and-file workers. Prices have risen so fast that even unusually quick wage growth has failed to keep up.
The gaping divide between the rich and the poor in this inflationary moment is clear in corporate earnings calls. At Boot Barn, a Western wear retailer, sales of men’s Western boots were down in the first quarter, but sales of higher-priced exotic skin boots picked up. At LVMH, which owns luxury brands like Louis Vuitton and Tiffany, American revenues have been growing strongly, while at Walmart, customers are pulling back as they struggle to afford basic necessities, particularly food, which has run up sharply in price.
“This is affecting customers’ ability to spend on general merchandise categories and requiring more markdowns to move through the inventory, particularly apparel,” Walmart said in its July 25 guidance.
It’s not just apparel: Consumers across the economy are buying less milk and fewer eggs, as prices for those products rise significantly, according to an analysis of government figures by Michelle Meyer, chief U.S. economist for Mastercard. Yet they are also going out to eat at restaurants more often.
The fissures are clear in the car market. Demand for new cars, which generally sell to higher-income buyers, has remained strong and prices continue to soar amid supply shortages — putting upward pressure on inflation. But used-car demand is ebbing and prices have begun to depreciate again.
“We see bifurcation in many parts of the economy and the auto market,” Jonathan Smoke, chief economist at Cox Automotive, said in an interview. “The new vehicle buyer has shown much less price sensitivity.”
Housing is another realm where fates have diverged. Home costs have run up sharply since the pandemic and mortgages are now more expensive, making buying unaffordable for many families. Because would-be buyers can’t afford homes, they are renting, keeping apartments for lease in short supply and pushing rents ever higher. Those soaring rents hit lower-income households especially hard: Roughly six in 10 people in the bottom quarter of earners rent their homes.
By contrast, homeowners have both seen their houses rise in value and often enjoy a built-in inflation hedge, since many refinanced their mortgages and locked in low monthly payments when rates were low in 2020 and 2021.
“The haves are really comfortable right now,” said Nicole Bachaud, an economist from Zillow, also noting that “we’re going to see this gap getting wider between people who are homeowners and people who are probably never going to be homeowners.”
Ms. Clarke, the New Canaan retiree, recently got off the wait list for an affordable apartment for herself and her 24-year-old daughter, who has autism and cannot work. Their new unit has just one bedroom, but it is clean and has new appliances, and at about $1,350 a month, she can squeeze it into her budget.
The lease lasts only a year, however, and Ms. Clarke is worried about finding somewhere to live if it isn’t renewed. Even now, she is barely making ends meet: She lost her car keys recently and had to spend nearly $500 replacing them, wiping out nearly all her small rainy-day fund and leaving her one crisis away from financial disaster.
“When you don’t have money, you’re on a fixed income, you’re constantly thinking, ‘Well, maybe I shouldn’t have bought that,’” she said. “There’s no cushion. There really never was.”
More financially secure families also face headwinds, of course, which could eventually prompt them to slow down spending. The cash savings they built up during the pandemic won’t last forever, and rising prices could prompt many households to pull back their spending.
And swooning stock markets could prompt richer families, who tend to have more money invested, to spend less than they otherwise would. Some economists think that the people in this demographic have mostly kept spending recently — despite their falling economic confidence — because they are eager to take vacations that they had put off earlier in the pandemic.
“Where I’m budgeting, it’s to make room for travel,” said Mr. Trevino of Los Angeles. “I feel like I’ve missed out on that a little bit.”
Economists have speculated that richer consumers’ resilience could fade as autumn approaches and they take stock of their finances amid a slowing economy. But for now, the reality that America’s wealthier consumers have yet to sharply pull back in the face of rising prices may be setting up a tough road ahead for the nation’s poorer ones.
“We really, in a way, haven’t noticed the inflation very much,” Mr. Schoenfeld said. “This economy is very unfair.”
Jason Karaian contributed reporting.
Posthaste: Sorry, but the economy isn't over COVID — and won't be for some time – Financial Post
A lot of weird things have been happening in our economy lately. Roaring inflation that took everybody by surprise, a drum-tight labour market and now the prospect of sputtering growth, if not outright contraction.
The explanation for these unexpected and in some cases unprecedented conditions, argue CIBC economists, is that COVID continues to disrupt the functioning of the economy.
Canada, the U.S. and Europe have tried to move on from the pandemic, lifting vaccine mandates and restrictions on activity, thus resulting in an increase in consumer demand.
“But COVID isn’t fading away as a supply constraint, or as a health issue,” CIBC economists Avery Shenfeld and Andrew Grantham wrote in a recent note.
Variants that spread more rapidly have meant that more people have died of COVID in 2022 than the previous year, even though fewer cases were fatal, they said.
And while demand has recovered, supply chains have not, partly because of the war in Ukraine, but also because of COVID.
The lockdowns this year in China are the most obvious example. Omicron restrictions here caused exports to fall even more than during the first 2020 lockdown.
In Canada it is showing up in employee illness. “Flights are cancelled when crew members call in sick, hospitals cut back services because staff members are ill and live entertainment shows are postponed for the same reason,” wrote the economists. Omicron has been associated in Canada with a significant increase in working hours lost to illness.
Long COVID has caused some to actually withdraw from the workforce. The numbers are small in Canada, they said, but the U.K. serves as an example of what could happen if we fail to control future waves of the virus.
In Britain, where public health restrictions have been lighter, 0.6% of the population have been “severely affected” by Long COVID, according to a recent study.
COVID is also impacting capital spending, said the economists. An uncertain outlook due to potential waves of the virus in future may be contributing to businesses’ reluctance to spend, but COVID supply-chain issues have also made getting capital equipment more difficult as well.
“The result is less production capacity in sectors where equipment is on back order, or where COVID uncertainties have forestalled investment,” they said.
The unprecedented COVID recession and recovery is also why there is a mismatch between job availability and hiring in the economy today, argue the economists.
During the pandemic some work was almost completely shut down and stayed dormant for a long period. Now that the economy has reopened, those employers are scrambling to rehire in great numbers, a situation we have not seen before, they said.
“A typical recession doesn’t see air travel drop by 90% and doesn’t see live theatres close outright. A typical recovery doesn’t see the sudden opening we’re experiencing in these same sectors,” they wrote.
Workers who held these jobs, like restaurant staff and baggage handlers, in 2020 had two years to move on, unlike a typical recession that lasts just two or three quarters.
CIBC believes this mismatch will eventually even out, but the impact of COVID on supply chains and missed work could remain.
So what does the future hold?
While traders are already talking about rate cuts after the hiking cycle winds up either at the end of this year or early 2023, CIBC sees the Bank of Canada keeping rates at 3.25% through the whole of 2023.
It also sees GDP growth slowing to 0.9% in the fourth quarter of this year and gaining only 1.5% in 2023.
“Even if a recession is avoided, we’re in for a protracted period of sub-par growth,” said the economists.
The policy of dropping COVID mandates meant to improve the economy may actually be working to extend the economics costs of the virus, they said.
“While helping on the demand side, diminished public health restraints, particularly during surges in case counts, are cutting into the economy’s supply capabilities. Their absence is likely elevating the peak levels for COVID cases, and thereby increasing the costs of worker absenteeism, and perhaps, as we’ve seen in the UK, risking longer term labour market damage due to Long COVID,” they said.
The economists said lockdowns should be behind us, but a push for the use of masks, global vaccination and improvements of indoor air quality would help reduce the economic impact of COVID.
Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here to get it delivered to your inbox.
Check out the latest from Sea Doo maker BRP Inc. This electric surfboard called the Sea-Doo Rise in one of three products that Bombardier Recreational Products announced recently in its first foray into electric vehicles. The EV push also means a return to the award-winning two-wheeled motorcycles that BRP produced in the ’70s and ’80s. The Can-Am Origin and Can-Am Pulse motorcycles, along with the Sea-Doo Rise, will all be electric and will be available to purchase in mid-2024, said BRP. Photo by BRP
- Blockchain Futurist Conference begins in Toronto
- Toronto Ontario Lieutenant Governor Elizabeth Dowdeswell delivers Speech from the Throne
- Unifor’s 4th Constitutional Convention
- Jonathan Wilkinson, minister of natural resources, will make an announcement to support electric vehicle charging infrastructure in Manitoba
- Earnings: Hydro One, Bausch Health Companies, Nuvei, Kinaxis, Coinbase Global___________________________________________________
Cryptocurrencies have been having a rough go of it lately, with Bitcoin shedding 47% of its value so far this year. The crypto bear market has become entrenched after a spate of company bankruptcies and the failure of major decentralized finance project Terra in May — and despite small rallies fails to meaningfully recover ground. Fans, however, might take heart from the map below that shows how common cryptocurrencies have become. According to Hellosafe, a comparison site for financial products, 99 out of 195 countries in the world now allow the use of cryptocurrencies, or 50.8% of them. Cryptos are legal in all the European Union countries and in 18 countries or 51.4% of the Americas continent. Only two countries in the world, however, have legalized Bitcoin as legal tender: El Salvador on Sept. 7, 2021 and the Central African Republic on April 27, 2022.
Being a good investor means doing your homework. From learning strategies for beginners to understanding the difference between buying and short selling, there’s a lot of ground you can cover on your own with the help of this learning program from our content partner StackCommerce.
Stock Market & Trading Beginner’s Bundle features 12 courses on day trading, analysis, and more. Classes are taught by One Education, which features industry professionals teaching courses designed to boost professionals.
Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at firstname.lastname@example.org, or hit reply to send us a note.
Listen to Down to Business for in-depth discussions and insights into the latest in Canadian business, available wherever you get your podcasts. Check out the latest episode below:
Taiwan's Economy Could Take Serious Damage if China Trade Hit Persists – Bloomberg
Commercial fishers and wild salmon advocates cheer large returns to B.C. waters
Andreescu earns thrilling 1st-round win over Kasatkina at National Bank Open in Toronto – CBC Sports
Silver investment demand jumped 12% in 2019
Europe kicks off vaccination programs | All media content | DW | 27.12.2020 – Deutsche Welle
Global Media Markets, 2015-2020, 2020-2025F, 2030F – TV and Radio Broadcasting, Film and Music, Information Services, Web Content, Search Portals And Social Media, Print Media, & Cable – GlobeNewswire
Health15 hours ago
Double mRNA COVID-19 vaccination found to increase SARS-CoV-2 variant recognition – News-Medical.Net
Health16 hours ago
First West Nile virus-positive mosquitoes of the year confirmed in Peel Region – CP24
Sports14 hours ago
What you need to know ahead of the restaged 2022 World Junior Championships – ESPN
Politics19 hours ago
For a new politics of ruralization – Resilience
Sports15 hours ago
Tennis legend Serena Williams to retire after U.S. Open in September – CBC Sports
News18 hours ago
Beware the Darkverse and the Cyber-Physical Threats it Will Enable
Tech18 hours ago
Everything We Expect at Samsung Unpacked, From Galaxy Z Fold 4 to Galaxy Watch 5 – CNET
Sports3 hours ago
Andreescu earns thrilling 1st-round win over Kasatkina at National Bank Open in Toronto – CBC Sports