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Despite steady sales in Toronto and Montreal, coronavirus looms over Canada’s real estate market – The Globe and Mail

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A real-estate sign stands in front of a west-end Toronto home on March 7, 2020.

Graeme Roy/The Canadian Press

Real estate activity is humming in Southern Ontario and Montreal but starting to slow in other Canadian cities as major industries shutter and slash jobs due to the novel coronavirus pandemic.

In Toronto, where sales have been soaring for the past 12 months, properties continue to receive multiple offers and more than their asking price.

In other Ontario cities such as Oshawa, Windsor and Kitchener, realtors are reporting high levels of activity. A detached house in Kitchener received 53 offers and sold for $491,000. The asking price was $299,900.

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“So far, we have not seen anything that makes us think that we are going to have a drastic shift in activity,” said Christopher Alexander, Re/Max’s regional director for Ontario and Eastern Canada. “There is a still a big housing shortage across the country, and interest rates are rock, rock bottom.”

It’s a similar story in Montreal, where the market has been booming for the past two years.

“We put a property to market and got three offers,” said Amy Assaad, a realtor with Royal LePage Heritage. “We are still getting calls.”

However, that interest may change in coming days with the economy grinding to a halt as entire industries fail, from tourism and recreation to manufacturing and accommodation.

The country’s largest real estate brokerages, Royal LePage and Re/Max, along with the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, have urged their members not to hold open houses.

Federal and local governments have stopped all non-essential activity, canceled school and restricted large gatherings. Ottawa has urged people to stay at home but has stopped short of ordering a general quarantine.

“There’s still a lot of reluctance to cancel or suspend completely,” said Sarah Richardson, a sales rep with Royal LePage Urban Realty in Toronto. “One client wants to sell and get the best price they can even if it means having many people through their home for showings, and the other wants to limit showings as much as possible and is intending to suspend their listing after this weekend if we’re unable to sell.”

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A slowdown is beginning in other major cities that were either booming or recovering from stricter mortgage rules that went into effect in 2016 and 2018.

In Vancouver and Victoria, realtors say there are still some multiple offers, but calls are drying up. One Vancouver realtor said activity was bumpy, with one property drawing many viewers, while others “were like ghost towns.”

Mike Stewart of Oakwyn Realty Downtown Ltd. put it this way: “We have cancelled all our open houses, and it is dead as a door nail out there.”

In Ottawa, another city that has seen a jump in sales and double-digit price increases, some realtors said no one is calling.

“Everyone is in panic mode. We get a lot of calls, and it just stopped completely,” said David Haynes, a realtor with Royal LePage Team Realty in Ottawa.

The euphoria from the Bank of Canada’s interest-rate cut of 50 basis points on March 4 was cut short when the risk of becoming infected by the virus increased and the news turned more dire.

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The central bank’s second cut of 50 basis points, to 0.75 per cent last week, did not trigger lenders to drop fixed mortgage interest rates as they would typically do. Scotiabank, MCAP, National Bank of Canada and other lenders raised some of their fixed mortgage rates, brokers said.

“It is a riskier time to be a mortgage lender when the employment situation is precarious,” said James Laird, president of CanWise Financial, a mortgage brokerage with operations in most of the country. “If they are going to lend more money, they want a higher profit margin to account for potential losses that might be happening.”

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Banks Believe They Are Well-Prepared for Commercial Real Estate Fallout – The Wall Street Journal

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Banks Believe They Are Well-Prepared for Commercial Real Estate Fallout  The Wall Street Journal

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Home buyer savings plans boost demand, not affordability – Financial Post

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Robert McLister: Tax shelters don’t make housing more affordable, but those with the cash would be foolish not to use them

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With housing unaffordability near its worst-ever level, our trusty leaders are on a quest to right their housing wrongs and get more young people into homes.

Part of Ottawa’s big strategy to “help” is promoting tax-sheltered savings accounts and pumping up their contribution limits. That, of course, stimulates real estate demand amidst Canada’s population and housing supply crises. But save that thought.

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First-time buyers now have three government piggy banks to stockpile cash for a down payment:

1. The 32-year-old RRSP Home Buyers’ Plan — which lets you deduct contributions from your income to defer taxes and then borrow from the account interest-free for your down payment (as long as you wait 90-plus days to withdraw any contributions);

2. The 15-year-old Tax-free Savings Account (TFSA) — which lets you save after-tax dollars, grow your money tax-free and withdraw it without the taxman taking a bite;

3. The one-year-old First Home Savings Account (FHSA) — which is a combination of an RRSP and TFSA. It lets you deduct contributions from income, compound it tax-free and never pay tax on withdrawals used to buy a home. You can even save the deduction for a year when you need it more — when you’re earning more money.

Assuming you have the funds and contribution room, these tax shelters can combine to help you amass a supersized down payment.

“Looking at the FHSA alone, with the max annual contribution room of $8,000 for 2023 and 2024, a potential first-time home buyer could have as much as $16,000 deposited in the account today for a down payment,” says Eric Larocque, chief mortgage operations officer at Questrade’s Community Trust Company.

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“If you also add in the cumulative contribution room of $95,000 for the TFSA, it amounts to $111,000 in potential funds available — and that’s before incorporating investment gains from either account.”

And it doesn’t stop there. RRSP, TFSA and FHSA savings limits keep increasing. If first-timers have enough contribution room, down payment savers in 2024 can sock away even more in these tax-sheltered troves.

“Factoring in the recent changes to the Home Buyers’ Plan, which now permits RRSP withdrawals of up to $60,000 — up from $35,000 — we land at a potential total of $171,000 in deposited funds that can be tapped for a first-time home buyer’s down payment,” Larocque adds.

That’s quite a wad — easily enough to cover the 20 per cent ($139,706) down payment required to avoid mandatory (and pricey) default insurance on the average home. Canada’s average abode is now worth $698,530 by the way, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

Here’s the rub: Canada’s living costs are sky-high, and real disposable income has trended downward. So, how’s an average first-time buyer household, raking in less than six figures, supposed to amass such a stash?

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Based on national averages, saving 10 per cent of one’s pre-tax income per year (who does that?) would take a young FTB couple over 15 years to sock away $140,000. History shows what would happen to home values if you waited 15 years — they’d jet off without you.

If you have no other resources and your bet is that historical appreciation rates continue — despite slower population growth, more building and potentially higher long-term rates — you’re better off saving less and buying sooner with a five per cent down insured mortgage.

So, does Big Brother really expect your typical first-time buyer to max out all these savings plans? Nope. But hey, throwing a buffet of options at you sure paints a pretty picture of government effort, doesn’t it?

Ottawa’s dirty little secret is that these nifty programs crank up demand, turning renters into buyers. So don’t bet on them making the home-owning dream any cheaper, for first-timers or anyone else.

Take advantage of them anyway.

The government sets limits on these tax shelters with well-off home buyers in mind. One lucky bunch who can make use of all three down payment savings plans is the first-timer with prosperous parents.

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Such buyers can make a withdrawal from their parental ATM (a living inheritance, some call it), deposit that cash in all three savings vehicles above and reap: hefty income tax savings or deferrals (thanks to the FHSA and RRSP deductions); tax-free/tax-deferred growth on the investments; and tax-free withdrawals if the money is used to buy a qualifying home (albeit, you’ll have to pay the RRSP HBP back over 15 years, starting five years after your withdrawal).

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The more opportunities it gives people to save for a down payment, the more Ottawa worsens the imbalance between purchase demand and supply. And that, of course, boosts real estate values skyward — which is dandy for existing owners but contradictory to the government’s affordability messaging.

But hey, these tax treats are ripe for the picking. Home shoppers with the means — especially those with deep-pocketed parents — might as well take advantage of all three accounts.

Robert McLister is a mortgage strategist, interest rate analyst and editor of MortgageLogic.news. You can follow him on X at @RobMcLister.

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$93 Billion Real Estate Giant Is Betting The Market Is About To Hit Rock Bottom – Yahoo Finance

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$93 Billion Real Estate Giant Is Betting The Market Is About To Hit Rock Bottom

$93 Billion Real Estate Giant Is Betting The Market Is About To Hit Rock Bottom

Successful real estate investors have long followed the adage: When there is blood in the street, buy property.

Historically, this approach has yielded dividends, and it explains the mindset behind a new venture from Hines, a real estate giant with over $93 billion in assets under management. Hines recently announced a new platform called Hines Private Wealth Solutions that seeks to capitalize on the recent troubles in the real estate industry.

The management at Hines has been carefully watching the real estate industry for decades, and they believe that today’s market presents the perfect opportunity for investors to buy distressed assets and sell them at a profit in the future. When you consider that nearly $4 trillion in commercial real estate loans are set to mature between now and 2027, it’s easy to see the logic behind Hines Private Wealth Solutions.

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The developers behind many of those projects took out loans assuming they would be able to refinance at pre-COVID interest rates. Considering that current interest rates are about double what they were before COVID-19, that assumption looks more like a losing bet every day. It also means there will be a lot of foreclosures that a well-positioned fund can snap up for pennies on the dollar.

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That’s where Hines Private Wealth Solutions seeks to step into the picture. It’s already contracted with investing heavyweight Paul Ferraro, former head of Carlyle Private Wealth Group, and raised $10 billion in funds for the new project. It will offer its clients a range of investment options, including:

In addition to these offerings, Hines will also give personal guidance to its investors on how to best manage their real estate assets. It is targeting investors who want to turn away from the traditional 60/40 investment model by channeling more money into real estate and away from other alternative investments. Hines is banking on the idea that high interest rates and high inflation will be around for a while.

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When that happens, it becomes more important for investors to hold inflation-resistant assets. That’s a big part of why Hines is betting that real estate is near the bottom after years of declining profits resulting from high interest rates and major losses in the commercial sector. Hines’s conclusion that now is the time to buy real estate is based on long-term company research showing that real estate typically declines after a 15- to 17-year-long growth period.

Its research shows that the decline normally lasts around two years, which is about the same length of time the real estate market has been suffering from high prices and high interest rates. Theoretically, that makes this the perfect time to make aggressive moves in the real estate market, and the Hines Private Wealth Fund was conceived to allow investors to take advantage of current market conditions.

Despite the deep troubles facing today’s real estate industry, it’s not hard to see the logic in Hines’s approach.

“This is a great vintage, it’s a great moment. This real estate correction began really over two years ago, right when the Fed started raising interest rates,” Hines global Chief Investment Officer David Steinbach told Fortune magazine. “So, we’re two years into a cycle, which means we’re near the end.”

If Hines is correct, real estate investors will have a lot of good bargains with high upside to choose from in the next 12 to 24 months. The good news is that even if you’re not wealthy enough to buy into the Hines Private Wealth Solution, there may still be plenty of opportunity for you to adopt their investment philosophy and start scouting for an undervalued, distressed asset to scoop up. Keep your eyes open and be ready.

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This article $93 Billion Real Estate Giant Is Betting The Market Is About To Hit Rock Bottom originally appeared on Benzinga.com

© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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