The Conservatives have opened a five-point lead and leader Erin O’Toole has surpassed Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau in popularity among voters, giving the Conservatives clear momentum going into the holiday weekend, according to nightly tracking conducted by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail.
According to the latest nightly tracking ending Thursday and released Friday morning, ballot support for the Conservatives is 35.7 per cent, compared with 30.7 per cent for the Liberals. The poll has a margin of error ± 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
“Looking at the trend, Erin O’Toole is shaping up to be a political freight train,” pollster Nik Nanos said on Friday’s edition of CTVNews.ca’s Trend Line podcast. “It’s been a game changer of an election and Erin O’Toole definitely has momentum.”
The latest tracking result shows the Liberals and Conservatives have essentially swapped places since the election kicked off on Aug. 15, as an Aug. 12 poll showed Liberal support at 33.4 per cent and the Conservatives at 28.4 per cent.
O’TOOLE TOP PERFORMER
But the story of the campaign has been Canadians’ increasing acceptance of the idea of O’Toole as prime minister. After lagging Trudeau in preferred prime minister polls for most of the campaign, the latest tracking data shows O’Toole with 31.1 per cent support, compared to Trudeau at 27.3 per cent, and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh holding in at 19.6 per cent in third.
“When you look at the trend line the Conservatives are incrementally picking up basically every day,” said Nanos. “I think we have to say, factoring the ballot numbers, that O’Toole has been the top performer in this campaign, and O’Toole’s performance on a day-to-day basis had been driving that incremental increase.”
While the Liberals may have hoped that the release of their election platform on Wednesday would interrupt the Conservative momentum, that does not appear to have happened.
“Tick tock for the Liberals because time is running out in this election. I know it’s only Sept. 3 but before we know it we’ll be pushing into the last week of the campaign,” said Nanos.
The first French-language leaders debate took place on Thursday, and there is the potential for a shift in momentum from the second French-language debate set for Sept. 8, and the English debate on Sept. 9.
But it appears one issue weighing on the Liberals and their leader is Trudeau’s decision to call the election in the first place. A separate Nanos poll conducted Aug. 28-30 showed that 76 per cent of Canadians found the election to be either not necessary or somewhat not necessary, while only 23 per cent said it was necessary or somewhat necessary.
ATLANTIC SHIFT, ONTARIO GAINS
The tracking data show the Conservatives with significant strength outside of the western provinces that have been its core of support in recent elections.
According to Nanos, the Conservatives are poised to gain ground in Atlantic Canada, where the Liberals won 26 of 32 seats in 2019, and the Conservatives won four.
“Atlantic Canada was a red fortress and has been and traditionally is very strong for the Liberals,” said Nanos. “Right now Atlantic Canada is in play. The Conservatives will pick up seats in Atlantic Canada, the question is how many.”
They should also factor in the Quebec vote along with the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois, with the potential for vote splitting. They’re also looking to make gains in the seat-rich battleground of Ontario, which is key for any party hoping to form a government.
In Western Canada, the NDP are showing the potential to gains ground in British Columbia, where they won 11 seats in 2019, said Nanos.
According to the tracking data, the NDP are at 18.3 per cent, while the Bloc are at 5.5 per cent. The People’s Party at 4.8 per cent have also now pulled ahead of the Green Party at 4.5 per cent, although the gap is well within the poll’s margin of error.
“For the Green Party this has to be a disappointing election,” said Nanos. “They don’t have a national campaign, their leader hasn’t been able to get the same type of exposure that past leaders of the Green Party have.”
With little more than two weeks before the Sept. 20 vote, Nanos said it could take a significant gaffe by O’Toole or the Conservatives to shift the current momentum, particularly as Canadians head into the Labour Day weekend where conversations around barbecues can firm up voter intentions.
“We’ve got the holiday weekend where everyone is going to be talking,” said Nanos. You know what they’re going to be talking about, that perhaps that Erin O’Toole can be the next Prime Minister of Canada.”
A national random telephone survey (land- and cellular-line sample using live agents) of 1,200 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three-day period. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprising 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing Is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ± 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender. The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2016 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada. Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
The second French-language leaders’ debate takes place on Sept. 8, and the English-language debate on Sept. 9. A previous version of this article provided incorrect dates.
Meng Wangzhou believed to have left Canada after B.C. court drops extradition case – CBC.ca
A plane believed to be carrying Chinese tech executive Meng Wangzhou took off from the Vancouver airport on Friday, marking a new stage in a legal saga that ensnared Canada — and two of its citizens — in a dispute between the U.S. and Chinese governments.
A B.C. court decided on Friday that the extradition case against Meng would be dropped after the Huawei chief financial officer reached a deferred prosecution agreement with the U.S. government.
Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig, the two Canadian citizens who were detained in China just days after Meng’s arrest in Vancouver, are now on their way back Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau confirmed on Friday evening.
Meng’s deal with U.S. prosecutors resolved the charges against the Huawei executive.
The agreement set in motion Meng’s departure from Canada after she had spent nearly three years under house arrest. The plane that departed Vancouver is an Air China charter destined for Shenzhen, the southern Chinese city where Huawei has its headquarters.
As part of her arrangement with U.S. prosecutors, Meng pleaded not guilty in a court Friday to multiple fraud charges.
The Huawei chief financial officer entered the plea during a virtual appearance in a New York courtroom. She was charged with bank fraud, wire fraud and conspiracies to commit bank and wire fraud more than two and a half years ago.
David Kessler, an attorney with the United States Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of New York, told the court the deferred prosecution agreement (DPA) will last four years — from the time of her arrest on Dec. 1, 2018, to Dec. 1, 2022.
Kessler said that if Meng complies with her obligations, the U.S. will move to dismiss the charges against her at the end of the deferral period. If she doesn’t, she can still be prosecuted.
WATCH | Meng Wangzhou speaks following her B.C. court apperance
The agreed statement of facts from Friday’s U.S. court appearance said that Meng told a global financial institution that a company operating in Iran in violation of U.S. sanctions was a “local partner” of Huawei when in fact it was a subsidiary of Huawei.
“In entering into the deferred prosecution agreement, Meng has taken responsibility for her principal role in perpetrating a scheme to defraud a global financial institution,” Acting U.S. Attorney Nicole Boeckmann said in a statement.
‘Sorry for the inconvenience caused,’ Meng says
Later Friday afternoon, B.C. Supreme Court Associate Chief Justice Heather Holmes officially ended the Canadian proceedings, signing an order to discharge the U.S. extradition request and vacate Meng’s bail conditions.
She addressed Meng directly before ending a hearing that lasted less than 15 minutes.
“You have been cooperative and courteous throughout the proceedings and the court appreciates and thanks you for that,” Holmes said.
Outside the court, Meng read from prepared remarks while flanked by her legal team. She thanked Holmes for her “fairness” during the proceedings.
“I also appreciate the court for their professionalism and the Canadian government for upholding the rule of law,” Meng said.
“I’m also grateful to the Canadian people and media friends for your tolerance. Sorry for the inconvenience caused.”
‘Meng Wanzhou is free to leave Canada’
In a media statement issued this evening, the federal Department of Justice confirmed that “Meng Wanzhou is free to leave Canada.”
“Canada is a rule of law country,” says the statement. “Meng Wanzhou was afforded a fair process before the courts in accordance with Canadian law. This speaks to the independence of Canada’s judicial system.”
U.S. prosecutors also credited the Canadian justice system for its commitment to the legal process.
“We are enormously grateful to Canada’s Department of Justice for its dedicated work on this extradition and for its steadfast adherence to the rule of law,” said Acting Assistant Attorney General Mark J. Lesko.
Renzo to Head KCL's Centre for Politics, Philosophy and Law – Daily Nous
Massimo Renzo has been appointed as the new Yeoh Tiong Lay Chair and Director of the Yeoh Tiong Lay Centre for Politics, Philosophy and Law at King’s College London (KCL).
Professor Renzo, previously a professor of Politics, Law, and Philosophy at KCL and the acting director of the Yeoh Centre, was selected for the endowed chair and directorship following an open search to fill the position. He works in legal, moral and political philosophy, and has written on topics such as political authority, just war, humanitarian intervention, human rights, philosophy of criminal law, consent, and manipulation, among others. You can browse his writings here.
The Yeoh Centre was founded in 2014 with the aim of exploring “major issues in law and politics through the lens of philosophy.” Its previous director was John Tasioulas (Oxford). You can learn more about it here.
Politics Briefing: Quebec introduces legislation to ban pandemic-related protests near hospitals, other facilities – The Globe and Mail
Quebec’s Premier says he is taking a cautious approach to proceeding with legislation to outlaw COVID-19-related protests within 50 metres of hospitals, vaccination sites and testing centres, among other facilities.
“It’s never easy to say you cannot go on the street,” Premier François Legault told a news conference on Thursday, responding to a media question about why he had decided to proceed now with Bill 105.
The legislation, with details on prospective fines, was tabled Thursday by the province’s Public Security Minister Geneviève Guilbault in response to recent anti-vaccine protests outside such facilities.
“It’s not something that you can do every day. You have to be careful. We want to make sure that people will not win, trying to say that the law is unacceptable, and we cannot enforce it,” said Mr. Legault.
“We wanted to do it correctly and I think that also we need to have the support of all the other parties, and I think that it’s the right time.”
Provisions of the bill will cease to have effect when the public health emergency declared in March, 2020, ends.
More details on the legislation here.
This is the daily Politics Briefing newsletter, written by Ian Bailey. It is available exclusively to our digital subscribers. If you’re reading this on the web, subscribers can sign up for the Politics newsletter and more than 20 others on our newsletter signup page. Have any feedback? Let us know what you think.
TRUDEAU FACES CABINET CHALLENGES – Justin Trudeau will have to contend with the defeat of three female cabinet ministers as he crafts his senior leadership team in what’s expected to be a quick return to governing. Two senior government officials told The Globe and Mail Mr. Trudeau will outline his government’s next steps once Elections Canada has finalized the seat counts, which could be as early as Thursday. Story here.
QUESTIONS RAISED ABOUT O’TOOLE LEADERSHIP – In the first public challenge to Erin O’Toole from within his own ranks, a member of the Conservative Party’s national council says the Tory Leader should face an accelerated leadership review for “betraying” members during the election campaign.
LIMITED DIVERSITY IN TORY CAUCUS – CBC has crunched the the numbers, and concluded that the vast majority of the MPs making up the new Conservative caucus — nearly 95 per cent — are white, even as the country’s racial makeup is diversifying. Before this election, 9 per cent of Tory MPs were BIPOC. Story here,
LPC CANDIDATE ACCUSED OF TAKING RIVAL PAMPHLET – A Calgary resident says he has doorbell security camera footage showing Liberal candidate George Chahal, the night before the election, approach his house in the Calgary Skyview riding and remove an opponent’s campaign flyer before replacing it with one of his own. He posted the footage to Facebook, which has now received thousands of views. Story here.
FORMER LPC CANDIDATE TO SERVE AS INDEPENDENT – Kevin Vuong, who won the Toronto riding of Spadina-Fort York as a Liberal candidate, said he will serve as an Independent MP, days after his party said he will not sit as a member of the caucus. Story here.
TWITTER BERNIER BAN – Twitter restricted People’s Party of Canada Leader Maxime Bernier’s account, preventing him from posting any new messages for 12 hours after he used the platform to encourage his supporters to “play dirty” with journalists covering his campaign. From CBC. Story here.
KENNEY FENDS OFF LEADERSHIP CHALLENGE – Jason Kenney appears to have quelled another challenge from within his own caucus. A non-confidence vote against the Alberta Premier was withdrawn on Wednesday, but he committed to an earlier-than-planned leadership review, to be held well in advance of Alberta’s 2023 general election. Don Braid of The Calgary Herald writes here on how Mr. Kenney survived this fight against his leadership.
NEW CHARGES AGAINST FORMER SNC-LAVALIN EXECS – SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. and two of its former executives are facing new criminal charges related to a bridge contract in Montreal nearly 20 years ago, plunging the Canadian engineering giant into another legal maelstrom as it tries to rebuild its business after years of crisis. Story here.
FORD LOOKING FOR CHILDCARE DEAL – Ontario Premier Doug Ford says he wants to make a child-care deal with the federal government. The province has acknowledged it was in discussions with Ottawa about a potential agreement into the last hours before the federal election was called in August.
PRIME MINISTER’S DAY
“Private meetings,” according to an advisory from the Prime Minister’s Office.
No schedules released for party leaders.
Andrew Coyne (The Globe and Mail) on whether this is the end of majority governments in Canada: “But in Canada, for one reason or another, the grip of two-party politics has been broken – irrevocably, it seems. As a result, something else that is not supposed to happen under first past the post has been happening, with remarkable frequency: minority governments. This is not just the second straight federal election to produce a Parliament without a majority party: it is the fifth in the past seven, 11th in the past 22.”
Lawrence Martin (The Globe and Mail) on why, if any federal leader should be stepping down, it’s the likeable Jagmeet Singh: ‘Strange business, politics. While a bit short of a majority, Justin Trudeau wins a third successive election by a large margin in the seat count. Yet some critics say he should be put out to pasture. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh suffered a drubbing in the 2019 election, losing almost half his party’s seats. With much higher expectations, he did badly again in Monday’s vote, electing (pending mail-in vote counts) only one more member. Yet hardly anyone says a word.”
Robyn Urback (The Globe and Mail) on why the knives are out for Erin O’Toole, but not Jagmeet Singh: “Theoretically, Mr. O’Toole and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh should be in the same boat. Both failed to channel national frustration over a pandemic election call and turn it into material support; both delivered underwhelming results. But Mr. Singh, who led a campaign that saw the party claim 25 seats as of this writing – just one more than it held before – doesn’t appear to be in immediate jeopardy of losing his job. The saga of former NDP leader Tom Mulcair, who was turfed by his party when the NDP won 44 seats in 2015 (that is, about 75 per cent better than it did on Monday), offers an explanation for why.”
Jen Gerson (Maclean’s) on why Tories should not “do that stupid thing” they’re thinking of doing: “If you dump your affable, moderate, centrist leader at the first opportunity because he didn’t crack the 905 on his first try, and you replace him with someone who will chase Maxime Bernier’s vanishing social movement like a labradoodle running after the wheels of a mail truck, you will wind up confirming every extant fear and stereotype this crowd already holds about you and your party.”
Steve Paikin (TVO) on advice for Justin Trudeau, inspired by the political experiences of former Ontario premier Bill Davis: “I think if Davis were still alive, he’d tell the current Prime Minister: “A lot of people are underestimating you right now. They think you’re damaged because you called this snap election, and it didn’t work out as you’d hoped. Well, I’ve been there. My advice, Prime Minister, is to reach out. Be more collegial and less ideological and adversarial. Establish a good working relationship with your opponents.”
Send along your political questions and we will look at getting answers to run in this newsletter. It’s not possible to answer each one personally. Questions and answers will be edited for length and clarity.
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