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Fixed mortgage rates are on the decline. Is now the time to lock in? – Global News

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Rates on some fixed mortgages have dropped by a full percentage point in the past few months, opening up an opportunity for Canadians eyeing the spring housing market or with a mortgage of their own up for renewal.

While experts say there’s little downside to securing a cheaper rate today, committing to a long-term mortgage with rate cuts in the forecast might end up costing some households more.

Before the end of 2023, the lowest rate available on insurable five-year fixed rate mortgages dropped below five per cent, the first time it fell below that benchmark since last spring.

As of Thursday, rates as low as 4.84 per cent were available for that same product at multiple Canadian lenders, according to James Laird, co-CEO of Ratehub.ca.

That’s down more than a percentage point from highs seen last fall, Laird tells Global News.


Click to play video: 'Navigating the Mortgage Minefield: Insights on Canada’s looming interest shock'

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Navigating the Mortgage Minefield: Insights on Canada’s looming interest shock


Since late October, there’s been a shift in sentiment within the bond market that informs what rates banks offer on mortgages and other loans, he says.

As the Canadian economy has weakened and inflation has shown signs of cooling, forecasters are shifting their expectations for the Bank of Canada’s policy rate from “higher for longer” to now thinking “rate cuts are coming sooner rather than later,” Laird says.

That’s driven down yields on products like the government of Canada’s five-year bond in recent months — the key benchmark for fixed-rate mortgages of the same length.

The popular five-year fixed product is not the only mortgage seeing cheaper rates to start the new year. Mortgage Outlet COO and broker Leah Zlatkin notes that three-year fixed mortgages are also down from recent highs, floating just above the five-per cent market.

“It is a really good time to get a lower (fixed) interest rate than you would’ve been getting for the last year,” she tells Global News.

Falling rates spurs ‘deja vu’ from 2023

But Zlatkin also warns that there are risks out there that could “quell” the easing in the bond market.


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Because yields — and by extension, fixed mortgage rates — are tied to expectations for the Bank of Canada’s policy rate, anything that pushes back forecasts for eventual rate cuts could send fixed rates in the market back up.

Inflation could stay elevated, for example, keeping the central bank from easing rates. Such a move would limit activity in the housing market as fewer people qualify for rates they can afford, Zlatkin says.

Laird says the easing in the bond market today is “almost deja vu” from last year, when the Bank of Canada announced a “conditional pause” in its rate hike cycle.


Click to play video: 'Business Matters: Canada’s housing market will return to near ‘normal’ in 2024, Royal LePage suggests'

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Business Matters: Canada’s housing market will return to near ‘normal’ in 2024, Royal LePage suggests


At that time, market watchers began to speculate that rate cuts were on the horizon, bringing down yields and fuelling a spring thaw in the cooling housing market. But those hopes were cut short in June and July when the Bank of Canada returned with back-to-back rate hikes, and the bond market saw yields surge soon after on the “higher for longer” mentality.

Laird warns that any number of global events or inflation snags not yet in the forecasts could affect the Bank of Canada’s timeline for rate cuts.

For that reason, there’s “never a downside” for Canadians who are thinking about getting a mortgage for the first time, or who have one coming up for renewal in the months ahead, to get a rate hold now when the market is easing.

By inquiring with a mortgage professional, you can secure a rate at today’s prices, typically for 120 days in advance of when you need it. If bond yields continue to ease and rates drop further, you can take advantage of the new rates right up until you sign for the new mortgage; if the trend reverses and rates rise, you’re similarly protected, Laird notes.

“It’s a free insurance policy,” he says.

How to secure the most competitive rate

The 4.84 per cent rate available on most comparator sites is open largely to homeowners or buyers with an insurable mortgage, Laird says, where lenders can afford to offer the most competitive rates.

Zlatkin says that for those with mortgages up for renewal in the first half of 2024, now is the time to get documents in order and reach out to a broker or other professional to kick off the renewal process.

An existing lender is likely to offer a competitive five-year fixed rate at renewal, but will be more inclined to negotiate a lower rate if you’re working with a broker to put another offer on the table, she says.

There’s another option for mortgage consumers to consider, Zlatkin notes. Variable-rate mortgages are currently more expensive than most fixed-rate options, as they’re tied to lenders’ prime rate, which itself is informed by movements in the Bank of Canada’s policy rate.

Currently, five-year variable rate options are priced around 6.2-6.7 per cent, Zlatkin says. But if forecasts are to be trusted that the central bank rate is going to decline, those with a variable mortgage could see their rate drop in concert with those cuts.


Click to play video: '2.2M mortgage holders will face ‘interest rate shock’ in next 2 years: CMHC'

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2.2M mortgage holders will face ‘interest rate shock’ in next 2 years: CMHC


Depending on the type of payments involved in their mortgage, a household could see their payments start higher but drop as the rate cycle eases if they were to take out a variable rate.

There are plenty of risks that come with this approach — as happened last year, rates could still rise rather than decline in the year to come — but Zlatkin notes that if rate cuts do materialize, a variable rate holder could pay less than someone with a fixed rate over the same timeframe.

“Consumers in the marketplace should start pricing that into their considerations,” she says.

Laird says that based on activity on Ratehub’s mortgage pricing and leads tools, there seems to be “early” interest among buyers ahead of the traditionally busy spring housing market.

Coming off of a very cool winter season, which saw few active buyers and some would-be sellers forced to shelve their plans for the new year, Laird predicts the housing market is due for a “strong start to the year.”

“There should be a lot of pent-up demand, just because there weren’t a lot of transactions last year,” he says.

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Justin Trudeau’s Announcing Cuts to Immigration Could Facilitate a Trump Win

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Outside of sports and a “Cold front coming down from Canada,” American news media only report on Canadian events that they believe are, or will be, influential to the US. Therefore, when Justin Trudeau’s announcement, having finally read the room, that Canada will be reducing the number of permanent residents admitted by more than 20 percent and temporary residents like skilled workers and college students will be cut by more than half made news south of the border, I knew the American media felt Trudeau’s about-face on immigration was newsworthy because many Americans would relate to Trudeau realizing Canada was accepting more immigrants than it could manage and are hoping their next POTUS will follow Trudeau’s playbook.

Canada, with lots of space and lacking convenient geographical ways for illegal immigrants to enter the country, though still many do, has a global reputation for being incredibly accepting of immigrants. On the surface, Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver appear to be multicultural havens. However, as the saying goes, “Too much of a good thing is never good,” resulting in a sharp rise in anti-immigrant sentiment, which you can almost taste in the air. A growing number of Canadians, regardless of their political affiliation, are blaming recent immigrants for causing the housing affordability crises, inflation, rise in crime and unemployment/stagnant wages.

Throughout history, populations have engulfed themselves in a tribal frenzy, a psychological state where people identify strongly with their own group, often leading to a ‘us versus them’ mentality. This has led to quick shifts from complacency to panic and finger-pointing at groups outside their tribe, a phenomenon that is not unique to any particular culture or time period.

My take on why the American news media found Trudeau’s blatantly obvious attempt to save his political career, balancing appeasement between the pitchfork crowd, who want a halt to immigration until Canada gets its house in order, and immigrant voters, who traditionally vote Liberal, newsworthy; the American news media, as do I, believe immigration fatigue is why Kamala Harris is going to lose on November 5th.

Because they frequently get the outcome wrong, I don’t take polls seriously. According to polls in 2014, Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives and Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals were in a dead heat in Ontario, yet Wynne won with more than twice as many seats. In the 2018 Quebec election, most polls had the Coalition Avenir Québec with a 1-to-5-point lead over the governing Liberals. The result: The Coalition Avenir Québec enjoyed a landslide victory, winning 74 of 125 seats. Then there’s how the 2016 US election polls showing Donald Trump didn’t have a chance of winning against Hillary Clinton were ridiculously way off, highlighting the importance of the election day poll and, applicable in this election as it was in 2016, not to discount ‘shy Trump supporters;’ voters who support Trump but are hesitant to express their views publicly due to social or political pressure.

My distrust in polls aside, polls indicate Harris is leading by a few points. One would think that Trump’s many over-the-top shenanigans, which would be entertaining were he not the POTUS or again seeking the Oval Office, would have him far down in the polls. Trump is toe-to-toe with Harris in the polls because his approach to the economy—middle-class Americans are nostalgic for the relatively strong economic performance during Trump’s first three years in office—and immigration, which Americans are hyper-focused on right now, appeals to many Americans. In his quest to win votes, Trump is doing what anyone seeking political office needs to do: telling the people what they want to hear, strategically using populism—populism that serves your best interests is good populism—to evoke emotional responses. Harris isn’t doing herself any favours, nor moving voters, by going the “But, but… the orange man is bad!” route, while Trump cultivates support from “weird” marginal voting groups.

To Harris’s credit, things could have fallen apart when Biden abruptly stepped aside. Instead, Harris quickly clinched the nomination and had a strong first few weeks, erasing the deficit Biden had given her. The Democratic convention was a success, as was her acceptance speech. Her performance at the September 10th debate with Donald Trump was first-rate.

Harris’ Achilles heel is she’s now making promises she could have made and implemented while VP, making immigration and the economy Harris’ liabilities, especially since she’s been sitting next to Biden, watching the US turn into the circus it has become. These liabilities, basically her only liabilities, negate her stance on abortion, democracy, healthcare, a long-winning issue for Democrats, and Trump’s character. All Harris has offered voters is “feel-good vibes” over substance. In contrast, Trump offers the tangible political tornado (read: steamroll the problems Americans are facing) many Americans seek. With Trump, there’s no doubt that change, admittedly in a messy fashion, will happen. If enough Americans believe the changes he’ll implement will benefit them and their country…

The case against Harris on immigration, at a time when there’s a huge global backlash to immigration, even as the American news media are pointing out, in famously immigrant-friendly Canada, is relatively straightforward: During the first three years of the Biden-Harris administration, illegal Southern border crossings increased significantly.

The words illegal immigration, to put it mildly, irks most Americans. On the legal immigration front, according to Forbes, most billion-dollar startups were founded by immigrants. Google, Microsoft, and Oracle, to name three, have immigrants as CEOs. Immigrants, with tech skills and an entrepreneurial thirst, have kept America leading the world. I like to think that Americans and Canadians understand the best immigration policy is to strategically let enough of these immigrants in who’ll increase GDP and tax base and not rely on social programs. In other words, Americans and Canadians, and arguably citizens of European countries, expect their governments to be more strategic about immigration.

The days of the words on a bronze plaque mounted inside the Statue of Liberty pedestal’s lower level, “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free…” are no longer tolerated. Americans only want immigrants who’ll benefit America.

Does Trump demagogue the immigration issue with xenophobic and racist tropes, many of which are outright lies, such as claiming Haitian immigrants in Ohio are abducting and eating pets? Absolutely. However, such unhinged talk signals to Americans who are worried about the steady influx of illegal immigrants into their country that Trump can handle immigration so that it’s beneficial to the country as opposed to being an issue of economic stress.

In many ways, if polls are to be believed, Harris is paying the price for Biden and her lax policies early in their term. Yes, stimulus spending quickly rebuilt the job market, but at the cost of higher inflation. Loosen border policies at a time when anti-immigrant sentiment was increasing was a gross miscalculation, much like Trudeau’s immigration quota increase, and Biden indulging himself in running for re-election should never have happened.

If Trump wins, Democrats will proclaim that everyone is sexist, racist and misogynous, not to mention a likely White Supremacist, and for good measure, they’ll beat the “voter suppression” button. If Harris wins, Trump supporters will repeat voter fraud—since July, Elon Musk has tweeted on Twitter at least 22 times about voters being “imported” from abroad—being widespread.

Regardless of who wins tomorrow, Americans need to cool down; and give the divisive rhetoric a long overdue break. The right to an opinion belongs to everyone. Someone whose opinion differs from yours is not by default sexist, racist, a fascist or anything else; they simply disagree with you. Americans adopting the respectful mindset to agree to disagree would be the best thing they could do for the United States of America.

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Nick Kossovan, a self-described connoisseur of human psychology, writes about what’s

on his mind from Toronto. You can follow Nick on Twitter and Instagram @NKossovan.

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Former athletes lean on each other to lead Canada’s luge, bobsled teams

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CALGARY – Sam Edney and Jesse Lumsden sat on a bench on Parliament Hill during an athlete celebration after the 2014 Winter Olympic Games.

Having just represented Canada in their sliding sports — Lumsden in bobsled and Edney in luge — the two men pondered their futures together.

“There was actually one moment about, are we going to keep going? Talking about, what are each of us going to do? What’s the next four years look like?” Edney recalled a decade later.

“I do remember talking about that now. That was a big moment,” Lumsden said.

As the two men were sounding boards for each other as athletes, they are again as high-performance directors of their respective sliding sports.

Edney, an Olympic relay silver medallist in 2018 and the first Canadian man to win a World Cup gold medal, became Luge Canada’s HPD upon his retirement the following year.

Lumsden, a world and World Cup bobsled champion who raced his third Olympic Games in 2018, leaned on his sliding compatriot when he returned from five years of working in the financial sector to become HPD at Bobsleigh Canada Skeleton in July.

“The first person I called when BCS reached out to me about the role that I’m in now is Sam,” Lumsden said recently at Calgary’s WinSport, where they spent much of their competitive careers and now have offices.

“It’s been four months. I was squatting in the luge offices for the first two months beside him.

“We had all these ideas about we’re going to have weekly coffees and workouts Tuesday and Thursday and in the four months now, we’ve had two coffees and zero workouts.”

Canada has won at least one sliding-sport Olympic medal in each of the last five Winter Games, but Edney and Lumsden face a challenge as team leaders that they didn’t as athletes.

WinSport’s sliding track, built for the 1988 Winter Olympics in Calgary and where Edney and Lumsden did hundreds of runs as athletes, has been closed since 2019 needing a $25-million renovation.

There is no sign that will happen. WinSport took the $10 million the provincial government offered for the sliding track and put the money toward a renovation of the Frank King Lodge used by recreational skiers and snowboarders.

Canada’s only other sliding track in the resort town of Whistler, B.C., has a fraction of Calgary’s population from which to recruit and develop athletes.

“The comparison is if you took half the ice rinks away in the country, hockey and figure skating would be disarray,” Edney said.

“It just changes the dynamic of the sports completely, in terms of we’re now scrambling to find ways to bring people to a location that’s not as easy to get to, or to live out of, or to train out of full time.

“We’re realizing how good we had it when Calgary’s (track) was here. It’s not going to be the end of us, but it’s definitely made it more difficult.”

Lumsden, a former CFL running back as well as an Olympian, returned to a national sport organization still recovering from internal upheaval that included the athlete-led ouster of the former president and CEO after the 2022 Winter Olympics, and Olympic champion pilot Kaillie Humphries suing the organization for her release to compete for the U.S. in 2019.

“NSOs like Luge Canada and Bobsleigh Canada Skeleton, they’re startups,” Lumsden said. “You have to think like a startup, operate like a startup, job stack, do more with less, especially in the current environment.

“I felt it was the right time for me to take my sporting experience and the skill set that I learned at Neo Financial and working with some of the most talented people in Canada and try to inject that into an NSO that is in a state of distress right now, and try to work with the great staff we have and the athletes we have to start to turn this thing around.”

Edney, 40, and Lumsden, 42, take comfort in each other holding the same roles in their sports.

“It goes both ways. I couldn’t have been more excited about who they hired,” Edney said. “When Jesse was coming in, I knew that we were going to be able to collaborate and work together and get things happening for our sports.”

Added Lumsden: “We’ve been friends for a long time, so I knew how he was going to do in his role and before taking the role, having the conversation with him, I felt a lot of comfort.

“I asked ‘are you going to be around for a long time?’ He said ‘yeah, I’m not going anywhere.’ I said ‘OK, good.'”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 4, 2024.

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Billie Jean King Cup and Davis Cup encourage donations for Spanish flood recovery efforts

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MALAGA, Spain (AP) — With the finals of the Billie Jean King Cup and Davis Cup set to be played in Malaga, Spain, this month, the International Tennis Federation is making a donation to the Spanish Red Cross to support relief and recovery efforts for the recent catastrophic flooding in the country.

The ITF and its two team tournaments said in a news release Tuesday that they “express their deepest sympathy to the victims and support for the communities and families affected by the devastating floods in Spain and its regions.”

The Billie Jean King Cup and Davis Cup, along with the ITF, “are donating to the Cruz Roja, and we encourage all our fans and followers to contribute as well.”

The ITF did not say how much it is donating.

Authorities have recovered more than 200 bodies in the eastern Valencia region after heavy downpours caused flash flooding. Police, firefighters and soldiers continued to search Tuesday for an unknown number of missing people.

The Billie Jean King Cup matches are scheduled for Nov. 13-20, and the Davis Cup — the last event of 22-time Grand Slam champion Rafael Nadal’s career — is set for Nov. 19-24, all in Malaga.

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AP tennis:

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