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Here’s How Old School Investing May Just Protect Your Retirement – Forbes

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It seems fewer people want to talk about managing investment portfolios today. In fact, for many, “investing” means determining which mutual funds you should pick.

But mutual funds aren’t monolithic entities. They consist of investment portfolios of individual securities. It therefore makes sense for you to understand how these portfolios work.

Perhaps the most effective way to achieve this is by going back to the basics. You might remember the phrase “old time hockey,” (you know, like Eddie Shore). Well, there’s such a thing as “old school investing,” (like Ben Graham).

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Ben Graham, called the Father of Value Investing, co-authored the seminal book Securities Analysis with David Dodd in 1934. This book is considered a “must read” if you dream of becoming a stock analyst and manage portfolios of all kinds (including mutual fund portfolios).

Of course, you’d probably find Graham’s The Intelligent Investor more approachable. This book was first published in 1949, but revised several times, the last being published in 1973, three years before Graham’s death. It’s here in Chapter 4 that Graham writes “We have suggested as a fundamental guiding rule that the investor should never have less than 25% or more than 75% of his funds in common stocks, with the consequent inverse range of between 75% and 25% in bonds.”

This simple asset allocation rule echoes the standard understanding of the benefits of diversification.

“Putting money in stocks, bonds, and other asset classes is called diversification,” says Stuart Robertson, CEO of ShareBuilder 401k in Seattle. “Diversifying across asset classes can offer assistance as one asset class may perform well while another suffers in differing economic environments. Stocks have had years when returns increased greater than 20%, and periods where they have declined 20% or more. Those are big swings. Think about 2020. The stock market tumbled over 33% by March, only to quickly rebound and have strong returns by December. That was a wild roller coaster. In March of 2020, you might have felt like you lost a lot of money, and then a year later, you might be pretty happy. Just know that stocks are likely to go up and down at a much greater percentage than bonds and cash.”

That Graham suggests you have a significant portion of your portfolio in bonds or similar instruments therefore means one thing and one thing only.

“‘Stable value investments’ provide just that: Stability,” says Ian Grove of RG Advisors Inc in Napa, California. “Keeping a balanced portfolio would most of the time include debt or fixed income securities to shield the investor’s portfolio from unexpected market events.” 

This dampening of volatility is especially important as you approach and extend into your retirement years. You don’t have the luxury of time to make up from a sudden downturn.

“For those with short time horizons, such as individuals reaching retirement age, having some more conservative options, such as stable funds, can offer protection from volatility while still providing some benefits over money market funds,” says Syed Nishat, Partner at Wall Street Alliance Group in New York City. “These funds can serve as a stabilizer within a portfolio, hedging against market volatility with minimal risk. While the yield isn’t as great as a higher risk fund, they do have higher rates of interest with little price fluctuation.”

There’s a bit more of a nuance to this than simply minimizing downside risk.

Washington, D.C based Steve Pilloff, professor of finance at George Mason University’s School of Business, explains, “Fixed income and stable value investments are an important component for a diversified portfolio. People often believe that the benefit of diversification is that it reduces risk, but this is only part of the picture. The true benefit of diversification is that it enables investors to maximize the risk-return trade-off. A portfolio with only stocks and a certain level of risk will have a lower expected return than a diversified portfolio with that same amount of risk.”

Still, there’s another advantage to splitting your portfolio into asset classes with complimentary risk profiles.

“Graham was trying to make the point that an investor’s biggest problem, or enemy, was psychology and themselves,” says Paul Swanson, Vice President, Retirement at Cuna Mutual Group in Madison, Wisconsin. “By keeping a portion out of the stock market, they may protect themselves, and their portfolios, from themselves.”

In this way, Graham anticipated what would eventually become known as “behavioral finance,” which is sort of a cross between finance and psychology. He was attempting to help non-professional (and maybe even professional) investors conquer their inner demons by forcing portfolios to keep a strict minimum of 25% in bonds. (He actually made it simpler by saying it’s easier to just have 50% in stocks and 50% in bonds.)

“Fixed income and stable value investments have typically played a key part in a diversified portfolio,” says Gaurav Sharma, CEO of Capitalize in New York City. “There’s a common sense reason for this. While the returns from these assets aren’t as high as equities over time, they are less ‘volatile’ and less likely to decline in bear markets. Investing legends like Graham appreciated that investing successfully is more about human psychology than anything else. Having a part of our portfolio that’s lower volatility helps cushion our losses and keep us psychologically fortified when markets fall, as they inevitably do from time to time. That means we’re more likely to stay the course than capitulate and sell our riskier investments when they decline. This is often the exact wrong time to sell.”

If you’ve heard of the concept of rebalancing, then you already know the real advantage of Graham’s advice. Brian Haney, Founder & Vice President of The Haney Company in Silver Spring, Maryland, says Graham’s flexible allocation guideline allows you “to have capital available to be opportunistic should the market present such an opportunity.”

In The Intelligent Investor, Graham explains it thusly: “According to tradition and sound reasoning for increasing the percentage of common stocks would be the appearance of the ‘bargain price’ levels created in a protracted bear market. Conversely, sound procedure would call for reducing the common-stock component below 50% when in the judgment of the investor the market level has become dangerously high.”

Now, it’s important to understand the following: Graham originally wrote this book nearly 75 years ago. He understood things change. Even his revisions update his advice. The basic sense of what he said was well grounded, but he was careful to suggest you need to pay attention and not follow anyone’s advice blindly. (You might wonder what his reaction might be to “robo-advice.”)

Old school investing continues to build on a strong foundation.

“Graham was likely referencing a hedge against equities in the event of a market downturn,” says Todd Scorzafava, Principal/Partner and Managing Director of Wealth Management at Eagle Rock Wealth Management in East Hanover, New Jersey, “but again, depending on goals, timeframes, comfortability and ongoing plans this will vary from person to person. The risk in a portfolio needs to be right in order for the investor to stay the course.”

It is therefore important that you take any “old” advice as a starting point, not as a definitive axiom.

 “While the logic underlying diversification remains sound, there’s one thing to keep in mind about fixed income investments today versus decades past: interest rates across the board have compressed significantly, so the returns offered by fixed income have come down in nominal terms,” says Sharma. “We may be on the verge of a collective rethink on what level of returns we can count on from fixed income, but the broader point about not being exclusively in stocks or risky assets is still a very important one to keep in mind.”

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What is Islamic halal investment and why is it on the rise?

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The global Islamic halal economy is set to reach a market value of $7.7 trillion by 2025, more than double the $3.2 trillion it reached in 2015 and significantly higher than the $5.7 trillion it was valued at less than three years ago in 2021, according to industry experts.

A report by the General Council for Islamic Banks and Financial Institutions revealed last year that the global Islamic funds market has grown by more than 300 percent over the past decade, with nearly $200bn now under management globally.

The statistics depict a rise in both demand for halal – or “sharia compliant” – investments and opportunities.

Investing is permitted under Islam, but certain aspects of investment practice – such as charging or paying interest – are not. This has traditionally meant a lack of opportunities for Muslim savers and investors in the past.

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What is halal investment?

Halal is an Arabic term meaning “permitted” and stipulating that:

  • Transactions cannot involve “riba” (interest).
  • Investments must not be made in “haram” (unlawful) assets or commodities such as pork products, alcohol or military equipment, among others.
  • Investments cannot be made based on “gharar”, which has been described as “highly uncertain transactions or transactions that run contrary to the idea of certainty and transparency in business”.

“Halal investment is basically managing your money and finances in line with your faith,” Omar Shaikh, director of Islamic Finance Council UK (UKIFC), told Al Jazeera. “Muslims believe that earning money in a way which is halal is better than earning money (even if that is more) in a way that is harmful to society and against the morals of the religion.”

Umar Munshi, co-founder and managing director of Islamic finance group Ethis, said sharia compliance is key, but institutions and investors looking for ethical investments need to go even further to ensure a business is completely ethical.

“The actions of a business must not have a negative impact on society or the environment,” Munshi told Al Jazeera. “So it’s not only compliant, but refraining from having a negative impact. Investing in a tobacco company, for example, may be sharia compliant, but it’s not good for society.”

How does halal investment work?

One example of halal investment is Islamic business financing, which works using new models of profit-sharing, sharia-compliant insurance and sukuk, an Islamic financial certificate that represents a share of ownership.

Unlike with conventional bonds – a form of IOU that investors can buy in order to receive interest payments – sukuk investors receive partial ownership of a business and then receive profit payments, which are generated over time. These payments are made instead of interest in order to ensure sharia compliancy.

“Islamic finance as a sector is barely 30 years old, with the past 15 years seeing the most development,” Shaikh from UKIFC said. “It takes time to educate and create awareness and as this has happened, more banks have focused on servicing the demand for halal investing. This in turn helps to create more products, which then creates more demand.”

Stock markets used to be the traditional modes of investment for many [Marcin Nowak/Anadolu via Getty Images]

A Goldman Sachs report published in December 2022 estimated that by 2075, five of the world’s 10 largest economies – India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and Egypt – will have Muslim populations amounting to more than 850 million people.

As the population rises, so does its demand for financial products. According to the State of the Global Islamic Economy Report 2023, published by research group DinarStandard, some $25.9bn was invested into sharia-compliant investments in the financial year 2022-23, marking a 128 percent year-on-year growth.

“In general, it [halal investment] is on the rise. People are a lot more educated and more aware of how their dollar impacts the socioeconomic landscape globally,” said Siddiq Farid, co-founder of SmartCrowd, a real estate investment platform based in Dubai.

“They are a lot more cautious, too, hence leading to more ethical investing, which halal investing is a big component of. It’s on the rise, particularly around the younger generation. The millennials, they are a lot more aware socially. People realise exactly where their money is going and how it’s being used.”

An increase in opportunities for halal investing and their ease of access are also cited as reasons driving the rise in demand.

Israel’s war on Gaza and its impact

More recently, the rise in demand for halal investments has received an additional boost as consumers boycott brands seen as supporting Israel and its war on Gaza.

The war, which has seen more than 32,000 Palestinians killed by Israeli attacks in Gaza, has “adjusted” the mindset of these investors, Farid said.

“Halal investment has been increasing steadily and it has accelerated further in the past six months, mostly among millennials and people under 40,” he said.

“But in the past, it’s more of these people just looking for something halal. As long as it’s not haram, it’s fine. Now, there’s more awareness of not only halal, but halal aligned with values and faith. All these boycott movements have got people much more aware that something may be halal, but you might not necessarily want to use it, be associated with it or invest in it.”

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The Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement has made many people consider where their money goes before they spend or invest it, say experts [Martin Pope/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images]

How has technology contributed to the rise of halal investing?

FinTech Magazine reported in December last year that while Muslims make up nearly a quarter of the world’s population, barely one percent of financial assets qualify as sharia compliant. This is set to change, say experts, with the arrival of “fintech” – financial technology that can make investing much more accessible for ordinary consumers and individual investors.

“Muslims are generally not as well educated when it comes to investing, and this is partly due to a lack of available options for them as Muslims. Even basic information pertaining to sharia-compliant investments is often not available to most of the Muslim population,” said Ibrahim Khan, co-founder of the online financial platform Islamic Finance Guru, in an interview with FinTech Magazine.

However, the rise of social media has contributed to an increased awareness and significant growth in sharia-compliant finance. In addition, fintech has made halal investment options, which are often much more convenient and easy to use with a smartphone or laptop, more accessible.

Consultancy group McKinsey & Company published research in January this year showing that “revenues in the fintech industry are expected to grow almost three times faster than those in the traditional banking sector between 2023 and 2028”.

“Your phone is often physically the closest thing to you. Fintechs are able to start from this paradigm and build solutions that are efficient and enhance transparency and choice for retail customers. This is where a lot of the action is at. Many banks are now creating fintech-based solutions or acquiring fintech players,” said UKIFC’s Shaikh.

Munshi added the selling point for fintechs is the age of the target audience.

“The younger generation is more open to investing online,” said Munshi, whose company operates an online platform and community for alternative finance and investment opportunities.

The same research by McKinsey & Company showed that the fintech industry raised record capital in the second half of the 2010s. Venture capital funding grew from $19.4bn in 2015 to $33.3bn in 2020, a 17 percent year-over-year increase.

As of July 2023, publicly traded fintech companies had a combined market capitalisation of $550bn, double that of 2019, the research said.

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Amazon completes $4B Anthropic investment to advance generative AI – About Amazon

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Amazon concludes $4 billion investment in Anthropic.

Customers of all sizes and industries are using Claude on Amazon Bedrock to reimagine user experiences, reinvent their businesses, and accelerate their generative AI journeys.

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The work Amazon and Anthropic are doing together to bring the most advanced generative artificial intelligence (generative AI) technologies to customers worldwide is only beginning. As part of a strategic collaborative agreement, we and Anthropic announced that Anthropic is using Amazon Web Services (AWS) as its primary cloud provider for mission critical workloads, including safety research and future foundation model development. Anthropic will use AWS Trainium and Inferentia chips to build, train, and deploy its future models and has made a long-term commitment to provide AWS customers around the world with access to future generations of its foundation models on Amazon Bedrock, AWS’s fully managed service that provides secure, easy access to the industry’s widest choice of high-performing, fully managed foundation models (FMs), along with the most compelling set of features (including best-in-class retrieval augmented generation, guardrails, model evaluation, and AI-powered agents) that help customers build highly-capable, cost-effective, low latency generative AI applications.

Earlier this month, we announced access to the most powerful Anthropic AI models on Amazon Bedrock. The Claude 3 family of models demonstrate advanced intelligence, near-human levels of responsiveness, improved steerability and accuracy, and new vision capabilities. Industry benchmarks show that Claude 3 Opus, the most intelligent of the model family, has set a new standard, outperforming other models available today—including OpenAI’s GPT-4—in the areas of reasoning, math, and coding.

“We have a notable history with Anthropic, together helping organizations of all sizes around the world to deploy advanced generative artificial intelligence applications across their organizations,” said Dr. Swami Sivasubramanian, vice president of Data and AI at AWS. “Anthropic’s visionary work with generative AI, most recently the introduction of its state-of-the art Claude 3 family of models, combined with Amazon’s best-in-class infrastructure like AWS Tranium and managed services like Amazon Bedrock further unlocks exciting opportunities for customers to quickly, securely, and responsibly innovate with generative AI. Generative AI is poised to be the most transformational technology of our time, and we believe our strategic collaboration with Anthropic will further improve our customers’ experiences, and look forward to what’s next.”

Global organizations of all sizes, across virtually every industry, are already using Amazon Bedrock to build their generative AI applications with Anthropic’s Claude AI. They include ADP, Amdocs, Bridgewater Associates, Broadridge, CelcomDigi, Clariant, Cloudera, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Degas Ltd., Delta Air Lines, Druva, Enverus, Genesys, Genomics England, GoDaddy, Happy Fox, Intuit, KT, LivTech, Lonely Planet, LexisNexis Legal & Professional, M1 Finance, Netsmart, Nexxiot, Parsyl, Perplexity AI, Pfizer, the PGA TOUR, Proto Hologram, Ricoh USA, Rocket Companies, and Siemens.

To further help speed the adoption of advanced generative AI technologies, AWS, Anthropic, and Accenture recently announced that they are coming together to help organizations—especially those in highly-regulated industries including healthcare, public sector, banking, and insurance—responsibly adopt and scale generative AI solutions. Through this collaboration, organizations will gain access to best-in-class models from Anthropic, a broad set of capabilities only available on Amazon Bedrock, and industry expertise from Accenture, Anthropic, and AWS to help them build and scale generative AI applications that are customized for their specific use cases.

Deepening our commitment to advancing generative AI, today we have an update on the announcement we made to invest up to $4 billion in Anthropic for a minority ownership position in the company. Last September, we made an initial investment of $1.25 billion. Today, we made our additional $2.75 billion investment, bringing our total investment in Anthropic to $4 billion. To learn more about the broader strategic collaboration between Amazon and Anthropic, of which this investment is one part, check out the stories below:

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Amazon doubles down on Anthropic, completing its planned $4B investment – TechCrunch

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Amazon invested a further $2.75 billion in growing AI power Anthropic on Wednesday, following through on the option it left open last September. The $1.25 billion it invested at the time must be producing results, or perhaps they’ve realized that there are no other horses available to back.

The September deal put $1.25 billion into the company in exchange for a minority stake, and certain tit-for-tat agreements like Anthropic continuing to use AWS for its extensive computation needs.

Amazon reportedly had until the end of the first quarter to decide whether to increase its investment to a maximum of $4 billion, and here we are just before the deadline, and the company has decided to throw in the maximum amount.

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Anthropic’s AI models are one of very few that compete at the highest levels of capability (however you define it) yet are available at scale for enterprises to deploy internally or in user-facing applications. OpenAI’s GPT series and Google’s Gemini are the others up there, but upstarts like Mistral may soon threaten that fragile triumvirate.

Lacking the capability to develop adequate models on their own for whatever reason, companies like Amazon and Microsoft have had to act vicariously through others, primarily OpenAI and Anthropic. The two have reaped immense benefits by allying with one or the other of these moneyed rivals, and as yet have not seen many downsides.

What we can take from Amazon’s decision to invest the maximum after (one must assume) getting a pretty close look at how they make the AI sausage over there is, really, pretty scant.

It makes too much strategic sense for these companies, which possess enormous war chests saved up for exactly this purpose (outspending rivals when they can’t out-innovate them), to pour cash into the AI sector. Right now the AI world is a bit like a roulette table, with OpenAI and Anthropic representing black and red. No one really knows where the ball will land, least of all the companies that couldn’t predict or create this technology themselves. But if your bitter enemy puts their chips down on red, it only makes sense for you to bet on black.

Especially if you can bet on black at a discount — which is what Amazon got here, since it could invest at Anthropic’s September valuation, which is most certainly lower than it is today.

That said, if things were looking sketchy over there — the way they must have looked at Inflection before Microsoft pounced on it — Amazon could have backed out or just invested less than the full supplemental $2.75 billion. But that might have sent a confusing signal no one wants getting out there, least of all existing multibillion-dollar investors.

We know Anthropic has a plan, and this year we’ll find out what Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and other multinational interests think they can do to monetize this supposedly revolutionary technology.

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