Business
How a recession in Canada could affect you
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The average Canadian household could see a $3,000 reduction in their overall buying power in 2023, according to a recent RBC report. This will likely be caused by higher prices and interest rates across the board.
The same report also predicts that Canada is heading toward an economic recession as early as the first quarter of 2023.
Today, I’ll show you how an economic recession could affect your finances and give you a few tips to ensure that you’re prepared for what’s to come.
Ways an economic recession could hurt your finances:
A recession can have several negative effects on your household finances. Some of the key pressure points that Canadians could feel include:
- Higher interest rates
- Higher cost of goods and services
- It can be harder to find employment (especially for recent graduates)
- There may be pay cuts, or you may not receive bonuses at work
- Investment losses from the stock market potentially declining
- Small businesses may have trouble keeping or getting clients
Below, I’ll cover each of these in a bit more detail so you have a better idea of what to expect.
1. Job loss or reduced hours
When an economic recession occurs, the whole economy suffers. Many businesses may find it hard to retain clients or attract new business. In turn, business owners may have to lay off some of their employees or cut hours in an effort to save money. This could even affect high-performing employees.
If you have a unionized job or a government job, your position may be a bit more secure. However, nothing is promised, so make sure that you do what you can to prove your value to your employer.
2. No bonuses or pay raises
If you’re used to receiving quarterly or annual bonuses, then you may be in for disappointment this coming year. Just as many businesses will have to cut employee hours, they’ll also have to cut additional spending on bonuses and other rewards.
Employees who are scheduled to receive a wage increase could also be affected and may see their raises postponed for the time being. You can ask your employer if this is what to expect and budget your finances accordingly to what they tell you.
3. Harder to find good-paying jobs after university or college
I have some bad news for recent grads – it could be difficult to find employment in your desired career path. Some of the companies you may want to work with will already be laying off employees, which means that hiring new employees is likely the last thing the company is thinking about.
In this case, recent grads may find it easier to join the gig economy, move back in with their parents to save money, or develop new skills and wait for the economy to improve.
4. Lower demand for service-based businesses
If you operate a service-based business such as landscaping, snow shovelling, house washing, or doing custom audio installations, you may see a dramatic drop in your clientele.
As Canadians’ finances are squeezed, many will drop some of the “luxury” services that they were subscribed to. They’ll start taking care of their own maintenance or postponing certain purchases until after the recession.
5. Higher interest rates on credit cards and loans
If you have a credit card with a variable interest rate, then you may see increased interest rates going into 2023. The Bank of Canada recently increased its policy interest rate by 75 basis points to 3.25%, and many Canadians have already seen an increase in credit card interest rates.
6. It will be more difficult to obtain a loan or financing
If you’re applying for a small business loan, trying to mortgage a home, or need to finance a new car, then you’ll likely undergo higher levels of scrutiny. In addition to higher interest rates for all loans, applicants may be subject to more rigorous screening or required to make a higher down payment on the amount they’re financing.
7. Investments could be more volatile
If you’re invested in the stock market, then you may be in for a bumpy ride. Stock prices generally sink during a recession. Investors often lose faith in their investments as companies show reduced earnings, and many people take their money out of the market for fear of heavy losses.
8. Harder to build a business
If you’re thinking about starting a new business, you could run into some difficulties. For one, lenders are less likely to approve small business loans. Secondly, Canadians will be spending less, making it hard to obtain new customers. Lastly, your business expenses and cost of goods may increase as you lose some of your buying power.
During this unstable time, it’s important to save money where you can, spend wisely, and continue to provide value at your job.
Christopher Liew is a CFA Charterholder and former financial advisor. He writes personal finance tips for thousands of daily Canadian readers on his Wealth Awesome website.
Business
Tesla Promises Cheap EVs by 2025 | OilPrice.com – OilPrice.com
Tesla has promised to start selling cheaper models next year, days after a Reuters report revealed that the company had shelved its plans for an all-new Tesla that would cost only $25,000.
The news that Tesla was scrapping the Model 2 came amid a drop in sales and profits, and a decision to slash a tenth of the company’s global workforce. Reuters also noted increased competition from Chinese EV makers.
Tesla’s deliveries slumped in the first quarter for the first annual drop since the start of the pandemic in 2020, missing analyst forecasts by a mile in a sign that even price cuts haven’t been able to stave off an increasingly heated competition on the EV market.
Profits dropped by 50%, disappointing investors and leading to a slump in the company’s share prices, which made any good news urgently needed. Tesla delivered: it said it would bring forward the date for the release of new, lower-cost models. These would be produced on its existing platform and rolled out in the second half of 2025, per the BBC.
Reuters cited the company as warning that this change of plans could “result in achieving less cost reduction than previously expected,” however. This suggests the price tag of the new models is unlikely to be as small as the $25,000 promised for the Model 2.
The decision is based on a substantially reduced risk appetite in Tesla’s management, likely affected by the recent financial results and the intensifying competition with Chinese EV makers. Shelving the Model 2 and opting instead for cars to be produced on existing manufacturing lines is the safer move in these “uncertain times”, per the company.
Tesla is also cutting prices, as many other EV makers are doing amid a palpable decline in sales in key markets such as Europe, where the phaseout of subsidies has hit demand for EVs seriously. The cut is of about $2,000 on all models that Tesla currently sells.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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Business
Why the Bank of Canada decided to hold interest rates in April – Financial Post
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Divisions within the Bank of Canada over the timing of a much-anticipated cut to its key overnight interest rate stem from concerns of some members of the central bank’s governing council that progress on taming inflation could stall in the face of stronger domestic demand — or even pick up again in the event of “new surprises.”
“Some members emphasized that, with the economy performing well, the risk had diminished that restrictive monetary policy would slow the economy more than necessary to return inflation to target,” according to a summary of deliberations for the April 10 rate decision that were published Wednesday. “They felt more reassurance was needed to reduce the risk that the downward progress on core inflation would stall, and to avoid jeopardizing the progress made thus far.”
Article content
Others argued that there were additional risks from keeping monetary policy too tight in light of progress already made to tame inflation, which had come down “significantly” across most goods and services.
Some pointed out that the distribution of inflation rates across components of the consumer price index had approached normal, despite outsized price increases and decreases in certain components.
“Coupled with indicators that the economy was in excess supply and with a base case projection showing the output gap starting to close only next year, they felt there was a risk of keeping monetary policy more restrictive than needed.”
In the end, though, the central bankers agreed to hold the rate at five per cent because inflation remained too high and there were still upside risks to the outlook, albeit “less acute” than in the past couple of years.
Despite the “diversity of views” about when conditions will warrant cutting the interest rate, central bank officials agreed that monetary policy easing would probably be gradual, given risks to the outlook and the slow path for returning inflation to target, according to the summary of deliberations.
Article content
They considered a number of potential risks to the outlook for economic growth and inflation, including housing and immigration, according to summary of deliberations.
The central bankers discussed the risk that housing market activity could accelerate and further boost shelter prices and acknowledged that easing monetary policy could increase the likelihood of this risk materializing. They concluded that their focus on measures such as CPI-trim, which strips out extreme movements in price changes, allowed them to effectively look through mortgage interest costs while capturing other shelter prices such as rent that are more reflective of supply and demand in housing.
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They also agreed to keep a close eye on immigration in the coming quarters due to uncertainty around recent announcements by the federal government.
“The projection incorporated continued strong population growth in the first half of 2024 followed by much softer growth, in line with the federal government’s target for reducing the share of non-permanent residents,” the summary said. “But details of how these plans will be implemented had not been announced. Governing council recognized that there was some uncertainty about future population growth and agreed it would be important to update the population forecast each quarter.”
• Email: bshecter@nationalpost.com
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Business
Meta shares sink after it reveals spending plans – BBC.com
Shares in US tech giant Meta have sunk in US after-hours trading despite better-than-expected earnings.
The Facebook and Instagram owner said expenses would be higher this year as it spends heavily on artificial intelligence (AI).
Its shares fell more than 15% after it said it expected to spend billions of dollars more than it had previously predicted in 2024.
Meta has been updating its ad-buying products with AI tools to boost earnings growth.
It has also been introducing more AI features on its social media platforms such as chat assistants.
The firm said it now expected to spend between $35bn and $40bn, (£28bn-32bn) in 2024, up from an earlier prediction of $30-$37bn.
Its shares fell despite it beating expectations on its earnings.
First quarter revenue rose 27% to $36.46bn, while analysts had expected earnings of $36.16bn.
Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said its spending plans were “aggressive”.
She said Meta’s “substantial investment” in AI has helped it get people to spend time on its platforms, so advertisers are willing to spend more money “in a time when digital advertising uncertainty remains rife”.
More than 50 countries are due to have elections this year, she said, “which hugely increases uncertainty” and can spook advertisers.
She added that Meta’s “fortunes are probably also being bolstered by TikTok’s uncertain future in the US”.
Meta’s rival has said it will fight an “unconstitutional” law that could result in TikTok being sold or banned in the US.
President Biden has signed into law a bill which gives the social media platform’s Chinese owner, ByteDance, nine months to sell off the app or it will be blocked in the US.
Ms Lund-Yates said that “looking further ahead, the biggest risk [for Meta] remains regulatory”.
Last year, Meta was fined €1.2bn (£1bn) by Ireland’s data authorities for mishandling people’s data when transferring it between Europe and the US.
And in February of this year, Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg faced blistering criticism from US lawmakers and was pushed to apologise to families of victims of child sexual exploitation.
Ms Lund-Yates added that the firm has “more than enough resources to throw at legal challenges, but that doesn’t rule out the risks of ups and downs in market sentiment”.
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