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How will pandemic end? Omicron clouds forecasts for endgame, experts say – CBC.ca

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Pandemics do eventually end, even if Omicron is complicating the question of when this one will. But it won’t be like flipping a light switch: the world will have to learn to coexist with a virus that’s not going away, experts say.

The ultra-contagious Omicron variant of the coronavirus is pushing cases to all-time highs and causing chaos as an exhausted world struggles, again, to stem the spread. But this time, we’re not starting from scratch.

Vaccines offer strong protection from serious illness, even if they don’t always prevent a mild infection. Omicron doesn’t appear to be as deadly as some earlier variants. And those who survive it will have some refreshed protection against other forms of the virus that still are circulating — and maybe the next variant to emerge, too.

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The newest variant is a warning about what will continue to happen “unless we really get serious about the endgame,” said Dr. Albert Ko, an infectious disease specialist at the Yale School of Public Health.

“Certainly COVID will be with us forever. We’re never going to be able to eradicate or eliminate COVID, so we have to identify our goals.”

At some point, the World Health Organization will determine when enough countries have tamped down their COVID-19 cases sufficiently — or at least, hospitalizations and deaths — to declare the pandemic officially over. Exactly what that threshold will be isn’t clear.

Some parts will struggle

Even when that happens, some parts of the world still will struggle — especially low-income countries that lack enough vaccines or treatments — while others more easily transition to what scientists call an “endemic” state.

In this photo released by Xinhua News Agency, residents line up for COVID-19 tests at a mobile testing site in Xincheng District of Xi’an, in northwestern China’s Shaanxi Province, on Sunday. (Tao Ming/Xinhua/The Associated Press)

They’re fuzzy distinctions, said infectious disease expert Stephen Kissler of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. He defines the endemic period as reaching “some sort of acceptable steady state” to deal with COVID-19.

The Omicron crisis shows we’re not there yet, but “I do think we will reach a point where SARS-CoV-2 is endemic much like flu is endemic,” he said.

For comparison, COVID-19 has killed more than 800,000 Americans in two years while flu typically kills between 12,000 and 52,000 a year.

Exactly how much continuing COVID-19 illness and death the world will put up with is largely a social question, not a scientific one.

“We’re not going to get to a point where it’s 2019 again,” said Dr. Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “We’ve got to get people to think about risk tolerance.”

British Columbia Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry said last week that she believes the province will eventually see the end of the pandemic.

“The way the virus is changing with Omicron — that is leading us to that place sooner,” she said in a year-end interview. “The type of illness it’s causing, with most of us being protected through vaccination, means that we are going to get to that place.”

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top U.S. infectious disease expert, is looking ahead to controlling the virus in a way “that does not disrupt society, that does not disrupt the economy.”

Already the U.S. is sending signals that it’s on the road to whatever will become the new normal. The Biden administration says there are enough tools — vaccine boosters, new treatments and masking — to handle even the Omicron threat without the shutdowns of the pandemic’s earlier days. And the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention just reduced to five days the time that people with COVID-19 must stay in isolation so they don’t sicken others, saying it’s become clear they’re most contagious early on.

Cases on the rise again

India offers a glimpse of what it’s like to get to a stable level of COVID-19. Until recently, daily reported cases had remained below 10,000 for six months but only after a cost in lives “too traumatic to calculate” caused by the earlier Delta variant, said Dr. T. Jacob John, former chief of virology at Christian Medical College in southern India.

Omicron now is fuelling a rise in cases again, and the country in January will roll out vaccine boosters for front-line workers. But John said other endemic diseases, such as flu and measles, periodically cause outbreaks and the coronavirus will continue to flare up every so often even after Omicron passes through.

Omicron is so hugely mutated that it is slipping past some of the protection of vaccinations or prior infection. But Dr. William Moss of Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health expects “this virus will kind of max out” in its ability to make such big evolutionary jumps. “I don’t see this as kind of an endless cycle of new variants.”

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Do you need a spring COVID-19 vaccine? Research backs extra round for high-risk groups | RCI – Radio-Canada.ca

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Recent studies suggest staying up-to-date on COVID shots helps protect high-risk groups from severe illness

New guidelines suggest certain high-risk groups could benefit from having another dose of a COVID-19 vaccine this spring — and more frequent shots in general — while the broader population could be entering once-a-year territory, much like an annual flu shot.

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Medical experts told CBC News that falling behind on the latest shots can come with health risks, particularly for individuals who are older or immunocompromised.

Even when the risk of infection starts to increase, the vaccines still do a really good job at decreasing risk of severe disease, said McMaster University researcher and immunologist Matthew Miller.

Who needs another COVID shot?

Back in January, Canada’s national vaccine advisory body set the stage for another round of spring vaccinations. In a statement (new window), the National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI) stated that starting in spring 2024, individuals at an increased risk of severe COVID may get an extra dose of the latest XBB.1.5-based vaccines, which better protect against circulating virus variants.

That means:

  • Adults aged 65 and up.
  • Adult residents of long-term care homes and other congregate living settings for seniors.
  • Anyone six months of age or older who is moderately to severely immunocompromised.

The various spring recommendations don’t focus on pregnancy, despite research (new window) showing clear links between a COVID infection while pregnant, and increased health risks. However, federal guidance does note that getting vaccinated during pregnancy can protect against serious outcomes.

Vaccinated people can also pass antibodies to their baby through the placenta and through breastmilk, that guidance states (new window).

What do the provinces now recommend?

Multiple provinces have started rolling out their own regional guidance based on those early recommendations — with a focus on allowing similar high-risk groups to get another round of vaccinations.

B.C. is set to announce guidance on spring COVID vaccines in early April, officials told CBC News, and those recommendations are expected to align with NACI’s guidance. 

In Manitoba (new window), high-risk individuals are already eligible for another dose, provided it’s been at least three months since their latest COVID vaccine.

Meanwhile Ontario’s latest guidance (new window), released on March 21, stresses that high-risk individuals may get an extra dose during a vaccine campaign set to run between April and June. Eligibility will involve waiting six months after someone’s last dose or COVID infection.

Having a spring dose is particularly important for individuals at increased risk of severe illness from COVID-19 who did not receive a dose during the Fall 2023 program, the guidance notes. 

And in Nova Scotia (new window), the spring campaign will run from March 25 to May 31, also allowing high-risk individuals to get another dose.

Specific eligibility criteria vary slightly from province-to-province, so Canadians should check with their primary care provider, pharmacist or local public health team for exact guidelines in each area.

WATCH: Age still best determines when to get next COVID vaccine dose, research suggests: 

Age still best determines when to get COVID vaccines, new research suggests

It’s been four years since COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, and new research suggests your age may determine how often you should get a booster shot.

Why do the guidelines focus so much on age?

The rationale behind the latest spring guidelines, Miller said, is that someone’s age remains one of the greatest risk factors associated with severe COVID outcomes, including hospitalization, intensive care admission and death. 

So that risk starts to shoot up at about 50, but really takes off in individuals over the age of 75, he noted.

Canadian data (new window) suggests the overwhelming majority of COVID deaths have been among older adults, with nearly 60 per cent of deaths among those aged 80 or older, and roughly 20 per cent among those aged 70 to 79.

People with compromised immune systems or serious medical conditions are also more vulnerable, Miller added.

Will people always need regular COVID shots?

While the general population may not require shots as frequently as higher-risk groups, Miller said it’s unlikely there will be recommendations any time soon to have a COVID shot less than once a year, given ongoing uncertainty about COVID’s trajectory.

Going forward, I suspect for pragmatic reasons, [COVID vaccinations] will dovetail with seasonal flu vaccine campaigns, just because it makes the implementation much more straightforward, Miller said.

And although we haven’t seen really strong seasonal trends with SARS-CoV-2 now, I suspect we’ll get to a place where it’s more seasonal than it has been.

In the meantime, the guidance around COVID shots remains simple at its core: Whenever you’re eligible to get another dose — whether that’s once or twice a year — you might as well do it.

What does research say?

One analysis, published in early March in the medical journal Lancet Infectious Diseases (new window), studied more than 27,000 U.S. patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind COVID, between September and December 2023. 

The team found individuals who had an updated vaccine reduced their risk of severe illness by close to a third — and the difference was more noticeable in older and immunocompromised individuals.

Another American research team from Stanford University recently shared the results from a modelling simulation looking at the ideal frequency for COVID vaccines. 

The study in Nature Communications (new window) suggests that for individuals aged 75 and up, having an annual COVID shot could reduce severe infections from an estimated 1,400 cases per 100,000 people to around 1,200 cases — while bumping to twice a year could cut those cases even further, down to 1,000.

For younger, healthier populations, however, the benefit of regular shots against severe illness was more modest.

The outcome wasn’t a surprise to Stanford researcher Dr. Nathan Lo, an infectious diseases specialist, since old age has consistently been a risk factor for severe COVID.

It’s almost the same pattern that’s been present the entire pandemic, he said. And I think that’s quite striking.

More frequent vaccination won’t prevent all serious infections, he added, or perhaps even a majority of those infections, which highlights the need for ongoing mitigation efforts.

Lauren Pelley (new window) · CBC News

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Students face up to 20-day suspension over vaccines – Waterloo Region Record

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Only one principal reported an altercation with a parent on the second day of suspensions over immunization records on Thursday. 

Under the Immunization of School Pupils Act, suspensions can last up to 20 days. 

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Measles case reported locally turns out to be negative: health unit

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NEWS RELEASE
SIMCOE MUSKOKA DISTRICT HEALTH UNIT
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On March 26, the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit (SMDHU) was notified by Public Health Ontario’s (PHO) laboratory that due to laboratory error, the case of measles that had been lab-confirmed positive on March 12, based on symptoms and a positive urine measles laboratory result by PHO’s laboratory, is in fact negative for the measles virus.

“With this new information of the negative lab result, we believe that that individual was not infected with measles and that there has not been any public exposure to measles resulting from this individual’s illness,” said Dr. Charles Gardner, medical officer of health. “We recognize that notifying the public of what we believed to be a positive measles case in our area created worry, anxiety and disruption for some, and we regret this.

“We do know that, despite best efforts, on rare occasions laboratory errors can occur. We are working closely with the PHO’s laboratory to do all that we can to ensure that such an incident does not occur again.”

Measles is a highly contagious viral infection that spreads very easily through airborne transmission. The measles virus can live in the air or on surfaces for up to two hours.

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Symptoms of measles begin seven to 21 days after exposure and include fever, runny nose, cough, drowsiness, and red eyes. Small white spots appear on the inside of the mouth and throat but are not always present. Three to seven days after symptoms begin, a red, blotchy rash appears on the face and then progresses down the body.

The risk of transmission to those vaccinated with two doses is low, and when it does occur tends to show a reduction in the severity of these symptoms.

“Although we are relieved for the individual involved, and for all Simcoe-Muskoka residents, that this case has now been confirmed as negative, we know that measles is still active in Ontario at this time and the potential remains for new cases to arise, especially given the increase in Ontarians travelling to areas in the world that have higher numbers of measles cases,” said Dr. Gardner. “This is why we continue to advise individuals to keep up to date with their routine immunizations, including measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccination.”

The risk of measles is low for people who have been fully immunized with two doses of measles vaccine or those born before 1970; however, many children have been delayed in receiving their routine childhood immunizations and people who have not had two doses of measles vaccine are at higher risk of contracting the disease.

People who do get sick usually recover without treatment, but measles can be more severe for infants, pregnant women, and those with compromised immune systems. Possible complications include middle-ear infections, pneumonia, diarrhea, or encephalitis (swelling of the brain) and occasionally death in the very young. Even individuals who are up to date with the measles vaccine should watch for symptoms of measles for 21 days after exposure.

For more information about measles, please visit smdhu.org or call Health Connection at 705-721-7520 or 1-877-721-7520, Monday to Friday between 8:30 a.m. and 4:30 p.m. to speak with a public health professional.

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