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Iran jitters could drive oil back to $70

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Energy expert Tom Kloza expects oil prices to resume rallying on renewed hostilities with Iran.

But Kloza, who runs global energy analysis for the Oil Price Information Service, believes the bullish activity is temporary.

“We’re in the seventh or eighth inning of a rally that’s sustainable,” he told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Tuesday. “I’m pretty confident that we’re going to exit the year at a much lower number.”

WTI crude and Brent fell about 1% on Tuesday. The commodities returned to levels seen before last Thursday’s U.S. airstrike that killed a top Iranian commander.

But that doesn’t mean there’s no gas left in the canister. He believes oil prices could rise another $5 a barrel this week.

“We need to be on guard for attacks like [what] occurred in mid-September at Abqaiq which was the Saudi facility,” he said. “A $70 handle is always possible for a short period of time.”

However, his biggest concern in connection to rising Mideast tensions would have the opposite effect on oil prices.

“I’m a little bit more worried about if there are soft targets or targets that have to do with transportation,” added Kloza. “It doesn’t take much to spook Americans into not driving. It doesn’t take much to spook the Western world or even emerging markets to lay off of the transportation.”

In 2014 when oil was trading in the mid-$70s a barrel, Kloza predicted the it would collapse to $35 in 2015. Thirteen months later, his forecast was a reality.

Now, he’s predicting a front-loaded year with the highest oil prices happening now. Kloza cites seasonal trends as the biggest driver and President Donald Trump’s objective to keep fuel prices low ahead of the election.

“I don’t think this president will tolerate $70-plus crude or $3-plus [a gallon unleaded] gasoline in red states,” he said.

By the end of the year, he estimates WTI crude and Brent will be in the mid-$50s a barrel range — a 10% to 20% drop from current levels. And, that should translate into cheaper fuel at the pumps.

“This should be another year of cheap gas,” Kloza said. “The last year of very expensive fuel was really 2014, and we’re not going to see a repeat of those numbers we saw after the Arab Spring.”

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Netflix’s subscriber growth slows as gains from password-sharing crackdown subside

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Netflix on Thursday reported that its subscriber growth slowed dramatically during the summer, a sign the huge gains from the video-streaming service’s crackdown on freeloading viewers is tapering off.

The 5.1 million subscribers that Netflix added during the July-September period represented a 42% decline from the total gained during the same time last year. Even so, the company’s revenue and profit rose at a faster pace than analysts had projected, according to FactSet Research.

Netflix ended September with 282.7 million worldwide subscribers — far more than any other streaming service.

The Los Gatos, California, company earned $2.36 billion, or $5.40 per share, a 41% increase from the same time last year. Revenue climbed 15% from a year ago to $9.82 billion. Netflix management predicted the company’s revenue will rise at the same 15% year-over-year pace during the October-December period, slightly than better than analysts have been expecting.

The strong financial performance in the past quarter coupled with the upbeat forecast eclipsed any worries about slowing subscriber growth. Netflix’s stock price surged nearly 4% in extended trading after the numbers came out, building upon a more than 40% increase in the company’s shares so far this year.

The past quarter’s subscriber gains were the lowest posted in any three-month period since the beginning of last year. That drop-off indicates Netflix is shifting to a new phase after reaping the benefits from a ban on the once-rampant practice of sharing account passwords that enabled an estimated 100 million people watch its popular service without paying for it.

The crackdown, triggered by a rare loss of subscribers coming out of the pandemic in 2022, helped Netflix add 57 million subscribers from June 2022 through this June — an average of more than 7 million per quarter, while many of its industry rivals have been struggling as households curbed their discretionary spending.

Netflix’s gains also were propelled by a low-priced version of its service that included commercials for the first time in its history. The company still is only getting a small fraction of its revenue from the 2-year-old advertising push, but Netflix is intensifying its focus on that segment of its business to help boost its profits.

In a letter to shareholder, Netflix reiterated previous cautionary notes about its expansion into advertising, though the low-priced option including commercials has become its fastest growing segment.

“We have much more work to do improving our offering for advertisers, which will be a priority over the next few years,” Netflix management wrote in the letter.

As part of its evolution, Netflix has been increasingly supplementing its lineup of scripted TV series and movies with live programming, such as a Labor Day spectacle featuring renowned glutton Joey Chestnut setting a world record for gorging on hot dogs in a showdown with his longtime nemesis Takeru Kobayashi.

Netflix will be trying to attract more viewer during the current quarter with a Nov. 15 fight pitting former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson against Jake Paul, a YouTube sensation turned boxer, and two National Football League games on Christmas Day.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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