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Stocks, gold and oil whipsawed as Iran strikes pushes Mideast to brink

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Financial markets were roiled on Wednesday after Iran fired missiles at U.S. forces in Iraq, sending Asian stocks and U.S. Treasury yields sliding and jolting oil prices higher as investors feared a wider conflict in the Middle East.

Iran’s missile attacks on the Ain Al-Asad air base and another in Erbil, Iraq, early in the day came hours after the funeral of an Iranian commander whose killing in a U.S. drone strike has intensified tensions in the region.

Early reports of the attacks sparked a sudden rise in risk aversion on worries over how the United States would respond. But by early afternoon, Asian equities had trimmed losses, the yen had stabilized somewhat and U.S. bonds tempered their rally as investors paused for breath.

“We are getting exaggerated moves but that’s of course volatility playing. Markets simply hate uncertainty. It’s an old adage but it definitely holds true in the current situation – markets can price risks but they can’t price uncertainty,” said James McGlew, executive director of corporate stockbroking at Argonaut in Perth.

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U.S. President Donald Trump said in a tweet late on Tuesday that an assessment of casualties and damage from the strikes was under way and that he would make a statement on Wednesday morning. Trump said that “All is well!” and “So far, so good!.”

A U.S. official said the United States was not aware of any casualties from the strikes.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.5% around 0445 GMT, having dropped more than 1% earlier in the day. China’s blue-chip CSI300 index was 0.48% lower.

Japan’s Nikkei was down 1.29%, also paring earlier losses of over 2%, while Australian shares clawed back from a more-than-1% drop to shed 0.18%. U.S. S&P500 e-mini stock futures, which had earlier tumbled nearly 1.7%, were down 0.28%.

Rob Carnell, Asia-Pacific chief economist at ING in Singapore, said possible further escalation of tensions between Iran and the United States could still provoke a prolonged negative market reaction.

“If you see U.S. treasuries rallying a bit this morning, expect them to rally quite a bit further should there be a forceful response from the United States, which I’d imagine there would be…from a market perspective I think this one could run and run,” he said.

The yield on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes last stood at 1.7864%, down from a U.S. close of 1.825% on Tuesday, but up from session lows. U.S. 10-year Treasury futures had earlier peaked at their highest level since November, and were last up 0.24%.

The two-year yield fell to 1.5183% compared with a U.S. close of 1.546%.

The yen, which had hit its strongest point against the greenback since October in morning trade, gave up most of its gains later in the day. The U.S. currency was last down just 0.08% against the yen at 108.33.

The euro was 0.04% weaker, buying US$1.1147 and the dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major peers, was 0.07% lower at 96.940.

In commodity markets, global benchmark Brent crude futures shot back above US$70 per dollar to their highest level since mid-September in the initial hours after Iran’s strikes.

They were last up 1.36% at US$69.20 per barrel, while U.S. crude added 1.26% to US$63.49 a barrel.

Gold also fell below a key psychological level as initial fears eased. The precious metal was 1.16% higher on the spot market at US$1,592.18 per ounce, having earlier blasted through US$1,600.

On Tuesday, shares on Wall Street had amid worries over U.S.-Iran tensions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.42%, the S&P 500 lost 0.28% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.03%.

Analysts say the escalating Middle East tensions are likely to keep markets on edge.

“If it does look like we’ve got U.S. casualties, then I don’t think Trump is going to just stand back and take that,” said Matt Simpson, a senior market analyst at Gain Capital in Singapore. “World War III has been thrown around. I don’t think we’re there yet. But it does look like Iraq II.”

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Rob Carrick: What the Bank of Canada rate hike means for investors and savers who want to park money safely – The Globe and Mail

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The benefit of parking cash in a high-interest savings account ETF was demonstrated this week after the latest increase in the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate.

The central bank raised its trendsetting rate by a quarter of a percentage point Wednesday. Almost immediately, the yield on HISA exchange-traded funds increased by a similar amount. For example, the gross yield on the Horizons High Interest Savings ETF CASH-T was 5.18 per cent late this week, up from 4.93 per cent late last month. CASH has a management expense ratio of 0.11 per cent, so its net yield is now 5.07 per cent.

Changes in the overnight rate do not directly influence returns from guaranteed investment certificates, but there’s an indirect effect that right now is working in favour of GIC investors. The Bank of Canada is worried about inflation – that’s why it increased the overnight rate. Inflation fears are also weighing on the bond market, where rates have been moving higher as well lately. Yields on Government of Canada bonds influence rates on GICs, which have been creeping higher lately for terms of one and two years.

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As of late this week, the number of alternative banks, trust companies and credit unions offering 5 per cent for one year had grown to seven, and the number offering 5 per cent for two years was four. The best three-year rate was 4.95 per cent. GIC issuers have been reluctant to raise rates on longer terms, but this could change if bond yields keep rising.

HISA ETFs accounted for two of the top 10 sellers last month in ETF land, even though they are under review by the federal Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions. These funds hold their assets in accounts at big banks that pay rates of return that are superior to what’s offered to retail depositors. Regulators at OSFI are looking into what would happen to banks if investors were to pull all their money from HISA ETFs at once. OSFI may order changes that will lower returns on HISA ETFs.

As a hedge against this outcome, some ETF providers recently introduced funds holding government treasury bills. T-bill yields have been rising lately as a result of the same inflation concerns that drove the Bank of Canada rate increase this week. T-bill ETF yields would benefit if this continues.

HISAs for investors are also available in a mutual fund format. Rates on these products have been stuck in the 4.05 to 4.35 per cent range in recent months.

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Indigo shakeup: Heather Reisman retiring, 4 other board members stepping down

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Indigo Books and Music Inc. says founder Heather Reisman will retire as executive chair and as a director this summer, while four other members of its board have also stepped down.

The company says director Chika Stacy Oriuwa indicated she resigned “because of her loss of confidence in board leadership and because of mistreatment.”

In addition to Oriuwa, Indigo says Frank Clegg, Howard Grosfield and Anne Marie O’Donovan have also stepped down as directors. No explanation for their departures was given.

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Click to play video: 'Indigo CEO Heather Reisman talks about creating a happier planet in her new book ‘Imagine It!’'
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Indigo CEO Heather Reisman talks about creating a happier planet in her new book ‘Imagine It!’

 


Indigo wished the departing directors well and thanked them for their contributions.

The retailer says Reisman will retire as executive chair and from the board effective Aug. 22.

Reisman stepped down as chief executive of Indigo last year as part a transition that saw Peter Ruis, who had been the retailer’s president, promoted to chief executive.

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Canadian banks raise prime rate to 6.95% after Bank of Canada hike

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Big banks follow suit after surprise quarter-point hike

Canadian banks announced they were raising their prime lending rates after the Bank of Canada surprised markets by hiking it benchmark interest rate on June 7.

Royal Bank of Canada, TD Canada Trust, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC), Bank of Montreal, National Bank of Canada and Bank of Nova Scotia all said they were increasing the prime rate by 25 basis points to 6.95 per cent from 6.70 per cent, effective June 8, 2023.

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Desjardins Group and Equitable Bank also announced it would raise its Canadian prime rate by the same amount.

The Bank of Canada surprised markets and observers when it raised its benchmark policy rate by a quarter percentage point to 4.75 per cent earlier in the day.

The central bank has raised its rate nine times, and 4.5 percentage points, since March 2022, and the commercial banks’ prime rate has moved in lockstep from 2.7 per cent to 6.95 per cent.

Listen to Down to Business for in-depth discussions and insights into the latest in Canadian business, available wherever you get your podcasts. Check out the latest episode below:

 

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