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Pent-up demand exhausted, Canadian real-estate market to lose momentum, but not prices: RBC Economics

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People who pay attention to Canadian real estate probably heard too much of this term already.

It’s ‘pent-up demand’.

Depending on who says or hears it, the phrase rouses a variety of reactions.

For many, pent-up demand is music to their ears.

They consider it as a major factor that propelled the housing market to new heights this summer following the spring ravages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

For others who consider real estate in Canada as a Ponzi scheme, pent-up demand represents a good example of fake news.

Some even offered an alternative phrase to argue that the market does not look good. It’s ‘pent-up supply’.

Pent-up demand is simply this: buyers and sellers largely stayed away from the market last spring because of uncertainties brought about by the pandemic. Then they returned in force in the summer.

RBC Economics has issued a new housing report, and well, it has a lot to say about pent-up demand.

“With pent-up demand now largely exhausted, we see activity cooling later this fall,” economist Robert Hogue wrote.

This leads to one inevitable conclusion.

According to Hogue, the rally posted by the real-estate market this summer will “lose momentum this fall”.

“The pent-up demand created this spring proved a powerful driver of activity. Question is: how much longer can it be such a dominant factor?” Hogue asked.

Answering the same question, the RBC economist wrote: “We think there’s probably little pent-up demand left to satisfy in most markets.”

How much?

“Perhaps just enough to keep the heat on in September but not much beyond that,” Hogue stated.

The economist recalled that home resales hit a record high in August, rising 6.2 percent from July.

The benchmark price of homes in Canada increased 9.4 percent year over year last month.

The price growth surpassed the eight percent record in July, and 5.7 percent before the COVID-19 pandemic pandemic in February.

With the market cooling in the fall, the economist noted that this will likely “let some of the steam out of prices though not to the point of causing outright declines on a large scale”.

“All signs point to still-higher prices in the near-term,” according to Hogue.

Hogue explained that “tight demand-supply conditions in the majority of markets” will “keep the balance tilted toward faster price increases (or slower price declines in Calgary’s case) in the coming months”.

 

Source: – The Georgia Straight

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What is Happening in the Thunder Bay Real Estate Market? – RE/MAX News

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Many people are aware of how destructive the coronavirus public health crisis was for smaller towns across the province of Ontario. It has been well documented that major urban centres such as Toronto and Vancouver endured substantial pain that altered their appeal. But the smaller communities also saw a downturn in their economies. Based on the most recent housing market trends, there could be good news on the horizon for small towns as they rebound from the lows experienced earlier this year.

When you consider Canada’s booming real estate industry, few people consider Thunder Bay to be an in-demand housing hot-spot. However, maybe it’s time to re-think these preconceived notions of Ontario’s northwestern markets. Despite the economy taking a hit from the COVID-19 pandemic that resulted in province-wide restrictions, the municipality’s economy is forecasted to rebound next year significantly, and this could bode well for an already recovering Thunder Bay real estate market.

For those who are considering fleeing the big city in favour of planting roots in a new town, Thunder Bay could be a top destination for its housing affordability, as well as a plethora of attractive fundamentals. Rural cities like Thunder Bay are now, more than ever, attracting urban dwellers in search of more space, less crowding, and a budget-friendly price tag on a family home. Below we dive into the trends unfolding in the Thunder Bay real estate market as we work our way through the final quarter of 2020.

What is Happening in the Thunder Bay Real Estate Market?

Thunder Bay may not be experiencing record-breaking sales activity and prices compared to other Ontario municipalities, but the city’s real estate market is certainly rebounding amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to the Thunder Bay Real Estate Board, single-detached home sales climbed 25.5% from the same time a year ago, totalling 118 units in the month of September. The median sale price advanced 8.4% to $265,000 in September year-over-year, while the year-to-date median price increased 3.8% to $249,950.

Moreover, single-detached properties spent fewer days on the open market. The real estate association reported that the median number of days on the market for single-detached homes was 18 in September 2020, down from 20 days last year. This is one of the shortest times on record, suggesting that demand continues to rise across the city.

With interest expected to climb even more, will there be enough supply to meet the booming demand? Not quite. According to a new report from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), housing starts in Thunder Bay fell 21% in September compared to the same time a year ago. While nationwide housing starts are up, CMHC expects new residential construction to start trending lower heading into 2021.

“The national trend in housing starts was largely unchanged in September,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC’s chief economist, in a statement. “Multi-family starts have been very volatile in recent months, partly reflecting the impact of COVID-19. High levels of multi-family starts in July and August were largely offset by lower levels in September, leaving the trend largely unchanged. This pattern was particularly evident in Ontario, including Toronto. We expect national starts to trend lower by the end of 2020 as a result of the negative impact of COVID-19 on economic and housing indicators.”

As a result, Thunder Bay could evolve into a sellers’ market. When you factor in historically low interest rates and the trend of homebuyers fleeing major urban centres in favour of smaller markets in Ontario, Thunder Bay could become a hot market over the next few years.

An Improving Economy in Thunder Bay?

Market observers are optimistic that Thunder Bay’s economy will modestly rebound next year. The Conference Board of Canada recently forecast that northwestern Ontario’s largest city will experience a sharp decline in the gross domestic product (GDP) this year, but 2021 looks promising, citing the strong housing market, improved tourism prospects, and expansion in manufacturing, construction, and utilities.

Overall, the Ottawa-based strategy think-tank predicts 3.6% growth in local GDP next year.

With parts of Ontario returning to stage two of COVID-19 restrictions, the province’s future over the next few months remains uncertain. Since Thunder Bay sits beyond the limits of Queen’s Park’s list of red zones (Toronto, Ottawa and Peel Region), the city’s rebound is expected to be unobstructed over the next 12 to 18 months, so long as local infection rates remain low.

With the promise of breathtaking scenery and a close-knit community perfect for raising a family, the lure of Thunder Bay is undeniable. If you’re looking to re-plant your roots within a diverse and growing city within a rural setting, take advantage of the affordability of housing within the Thunder Bay market before it joins the ranks of Ontario’s highly priced real estate hot-spots!

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Global Luxury Real Estate Market 2020 Key Regions – Brookfield Asset Management, Public Storage, Prologis, American Tower, AvalonBay Communities – re:Jerusalem

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Hot Property Newsletter: The luxury real estate market changes with the  calendar - Los Angeles Times

MarketsandResearch.biz has uploaded a smart research report titled Global Luxury Real Estate Market 2020 by Company, Type and Application, Forecast to 2025 that tracks the significant developments which are recently being adopted across the global market. The report covers a variety of market factors such as drivers, opportunities, and restraints. The report highlights a comprehensive summary of the market, highlighting the future trends in the global Luxury Real Estate market that will impact the demand during the forecast period from 2020 to 2025. It contains an analysis of market size, growth rate, regional market scope, product-market various applications, industrial chain, market effect factors analysis.

About The Report:

The report further pinpoints the various limitations and strengths of the leading companies operating in the global Luxury Real Estate market. The competitive developments such as research and development activities, partnerships, product innovations, and mergers and acquisitions have been analyzed. The research contains a comprehensive market breakdown on the basis of value, volume, CAGR, and year on year growth. The intelligent market research report enables clients to take strategic decisions and achieve estimated growth.

NOTE: Our report highlights the major issues and hazards that companies might come across due to the unprecedented outbreak of COVID-19.

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The Key Market Parameters Included:

  • Company overview and snapshot
  • Product/service portfolio
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  • Global Luxury Real Estate market outlook
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In the global Luxury Real Estate market, the following companies are covered: Brookfield Asset Management, Public Storage, Prologis, American Tower, AvalonBay Communities, Simon Property Group, Klepierre, Weyerhaeuser, Link REIT, Gecina, Covivio, Equity Residential, Welltower, Ventas, Equinix, Host Hotels & Resorts, Boston Properties, Digital Realty Trust, HCP, Annaly Capital Management, Segro, Starwood Property Trust, Dexus, Vornado Realty, Realty Income

Product segment analysis of the market is: Single-family homes, Condos, Townhouses

Application segment analysis of the market is: Residential, Commercial

The market report offers a comprehensive geographical analysis with major regions such as: North America (United States, Canada and Mexico), Europe (Germany, France, UK, Russia and Italy), Asia-Pacific (China, Japan, Korea, India and Southeast Asia), South America (Brazil, Argentina, etc.), Middle East & Africa (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa).

The manufacturers dominant within the global Luxury Real Estate market are highlighted inside the competitive landscape section of the report. The report documents factors such as drivers, restraints, and opportunities that impact the remuneration of this market.  The report includes data about several parameters related to the regional contribution such as market share, application share, type share, key companies in respective regions. Furthermore, information related to the growth rate, revenue, sales, production, consumption, during the forecast period is delivered in the report.

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Manufacture Analysis: Manufacture of the Luxury Real Estate is analyzed with respect to different applications, types, and regions. The manufacturer segment has been described in the report with its market share, revenue, basic data, company profiles, product picture and specifications, sales revenue, price, gross margin, and contact info and the highest growing segment globally.

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Will Canada's Real Estate Market Stay Hot This Winter? RE/MAX Thinks So – Toronto Storeys

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After COVID-19 reared its ugly head on Canadian soil, life as we knew it changed forever… or at least for the foreseeable future.


Businesses closed and jobs were lost across every industry as the government tried to gain control of the deadly virus. However, despite a minor hiccup in the spring, the Canadian real estate market has managed to (so far) come out unscathed — for the most part, anyways.

In the months to follow the initial outbreak of the virus, Canada’s housing market experienced a record-setting recovery from coast to coast, thanks to high demand, Canadians taking advantage of low-interest rates, and real estate agents utilizing digital sales tools.

Since the start of the pandemic, Canadian homebuying behaviours have shifted immensely, with many urbanites relocating to the ‘burbs in search of more space as the work-from-home trend continues.

As such, both sales and prices are up, which raises the question: will the Canadian housing market maintain this upward trend as we head into winter?

READ:  Home Renovations in Canada Up Nearly 40% Since Start of Pandemic

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas recently published a report that analyzed the real estate markets in the Group of Seven countries during the second quarter. According to the report, Canadian residential real estate prices reported the biggest jump in the G7, rising 2.42% from Q1-2020. The next biggest jump by a G7 country was France, rising 1.71%. This occurred in Canada despite soaring vacancy rates and very little immigration during the April-to-June period.

To get a better understanding of the Canadian housing market, RE/MAX shared the average sales prices and the year-over-year growth from August.

  • Greater Toronto Area: $890,400 (+11.1%)
  • Greater Vancouver Area: $1,038,700 (+5.3%)
  • Ottawa: $517,800 (+19.9%)
  • Greater Montreal Area: $408,200 (+16.4%)
  • Halifax: $372,982 (+18.1%)

“The unforeseen developments of 2020 may have stumped market watchers, but the upward trends make sense since a key factor helping in the recovery of the national real estate market has been an inventory shortage that surfaced long before COVID-19 reared its head in Canada,” wrote RE/MAX in a recent report.

According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), inventory levels fell to an all-time low of 2.6 months in August.

Looking ahead, some economists said that the pent-up demand has been exhausted, which could mean the Canadian real estate market would lose some of its current momentum in the months to come. Despite the possibility of a slowdown, RE/MAX suggests that prices will continue to climb.

“With pent-up demand now largely exhausted, we see activity cooling later this fall,” said RBC economist Robert Hogue.“The pent-up demand created this spring proved a powerful driver of activity. Question is: how much longer can it be such a dominant factor? We think there’s probably little pent-up demand left to satisfy in most markets.”

RBC’s forecast for higher prices coincides with RE/MAX Fall Market Outlook Report, which predicted a “continuation of growth in valuations and activity in most housing markets.”

Regardless of where you’re looking to move, RE/MAX says the Canadian real estate market is “ripe with a wide range of opportunities for both new homebuyers and homeowners looking to upgrade.” Particularly since more people are working remotely and fewer workers need to be in close proximity to their workplace, which is leading to growth outside of downtown cores — namely within small suburban or rural municipalities.

The Bank of Canada (BoC), which is anticipated to maintain an accommodative monetary policy for a few more years, forecasts that it’ll still be some until Canada’s economy recovers. However, despite the remaining roadblocks within the economy — including business closures and widespread job loss — the real estate sector is booming.

RE/MAX suggests that “any significant price cooling activity is unlikely to correlate with Canada’s cooling temperatures” and when it comes to the national real estate market, “all signs point to a hot winter market ahead.”

Of course, it must be noted that RE/MAX has a vested interest in the market performing, and they have been one of the most critical voices of the CMHC’s dire forecasts since COVID-19 began. That said, RE/MAX’s predictions about the housing market have so far been more aligned with real life occurrences than those of the CMHC. But, as the saying goes, winter is coming — and if buyers start to get cold feet it’s going to be a long one.

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