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Posthaste: Interest rates aren’t affecting Canada’s love affair with real estate like they used to – Financial Post

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Good Morning!

Today’s data on Canada’s biggest housing market saw benchmark prices shoot up 8.7% from the January before, the biggest jump in more than two years. Toronto sales also rose 15.4% from last year, the 10th straight advance. Active listings fell 35%, pointing to a tightening market, said BMO senior economist Sarah Howcroft in a morning note.

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“It bears repeating that ongoing housing market strength will be front of mind for the Bank of Canada in any policy easing considerations,” she said.

But should it? The Bank of Canada has raised concerns about “housing froth”, suggesting a rate cut would further fuel the escalation.

Yet TD Economics argues in a recent report that a Bank of Canada cut would benefit the economy’s growth, while its influence on the housing risk is limited.

“The Bank of Canada doesn’t want to further stoke this fire via rate cuts that could encourage home buying behaviour. But the unfortunate truth if that it probably can’t do much to manage this market,” TD economists Beata Caranci and James Orlando said in the report.

The rebound in the housing market has happened despite the Bank holding rates at a higher level than in the United States, and supply and demand is driving the market now. Canada’s population growth is two to three times higher than peer economies, and most of the newcomers settle in or around a handful of cities, TD said. In Canada, 60% of the population lives within 200 kilometres of just five cities.

Record supply of housing is underway, but still playing catchup. TD says interest rates are not likely the catalyst anymore, especially because of tighter mortgage rules.

Canadians have a love affair with homes, TD said. Because they were spared the carnage of the U.S. housing crash in 2008, Canadians also love investing in real estate. Over the past 10 years, the average sale price of a Canadian home has averaged a compound annual return of 4.6%, compared with 4.3% in the U.S., says TD. Toronto and Vancouver are even higher, with returns of 7.5% and 5.2% respectively. Compare those to the returns of the 10-year Canadian government bond at 3.7% annually and the S&P TSX Composite at 6.9%. The numbers “drive home the point that the last 10 years have offered good returns for financial assets.”

TD warns that it might not always be that way. There are real risks that if Canada entered recession, the levered gains would become levered losses. Financial stress is already becoming apparent in rise of insolvencies, which were related to Bank of Canada hikes starting in 2017.

“An interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada would influence an easing in financial conditions in the consumer loan market,” said the report.

TD says the Bank should continue to raise awareness of financial risks, but government and regulators need to address the housing market.

“The interest rate lever should be pulled to protect broader economic growth and domestic sentiment at earliest signs of a wobbling,” TD said.

Here’s what you need to know this morning:

Canada’s trade deficit shrank to one of the smallest in recent years, data showed yesterday. The December gap fell to $370 million, down from the revised deficit of $1.2 billion in November and smaller than economists’ estimates. But in this case, slimmer is not much better, according to CIBC economist Andrew Grantham. The rebound in exports from the disruption in November of a pipeline rupture and a rail strike was not as robust as CIBC economists expected, he said. Exports gains were mostly driven by oil. Excluding energy, exports were only up 0.3%. and exports of manufactured products were down. “Even with the slightly slimmer than expected headline print, today’s trade data will do little to inspire confidence in the underlying trend within the Canadian economy,” Grantham wrote. “The lack of progress in non-energy exports, even with expected boost from the rail strike ending is a somewhat disappointing first signal for December GDP.”

— Please send your news, comments and stories to pheaven@postmedia.com. — Pamela Heaven @pamheaven

With files from The Canadian Press, Thomson Reuters and Bloomberg

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Former HGTV star from Los Gatos sentenced in $10M real estate fraud case – CBS San Francisco

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LOS GATOS – A Los Gatos man who starred in a real estate reality show was sentenced to jail and ordered to pay back nearly $10 million to his victims after being convicted of real estate fraud, prosecutors said Tuesday.

According to Santa Clara County District Attorney Jeff Rosen’s office, 58-year-old Charles “Todd” Hill received a four-year sentence. Hill starred in the HGTV show “Flip It to Win It“, which featured teams buying dilapidated homes and fixing them, before selling them for a profit.

The show aired in 2014.

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Prosecutors said Hill was convicted in Sep. 2023 after admitting to grand theft with aggravated white-collar enhancements for committing real estate and financial fraud against 11 victims. Hill was indicted in 2019 following an investigation by the DA’s office.

“Some see the huge amount of money in Silicon Valley real estate as a business opportunity,” Rosen said in a statement. “Others, unfortunately, see it as a criminal opportunity – and we will hold those people strictly accountable.”

According to the DA’s office, Hill engaged in “multiple fraud schemes”, with some scams dating back before the HGTV show.

Prosecutors said in one instance, he diverted construction money for his personal use. In another, Hill created a Ponzi scheme by taking money intended to buy homes from an investor and spending it on a lavish lifestyle instead. He hid the theft by creating false balance sheets and used fraudulent information to obtain loans, according to prosecutors.

In a third case, prosecutors said an investor who provided $250,000 to remodel a home toured the property, only finding it to be a “burnt down shell” with no work performed.

Hill had used the money on a rented apartment in San Francisco along with spending on hotels, vacations and luxury cars, prosecutors said.

In addition to jail time, Hill was ordered to pay back $9,402,678.43 in restitution and serve 10 years probation. Hill has been remanded into custody, the DA’s office announced.

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Unlocking success in real estate with Glenn Zdrill – paNOW

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Since Zdrill is well versed in all aspects of the real estate industry, you’ll have answers to questions before you even think to ask them – like, “How does mortgage loan insurance work?” or “How much will I need for closing costs?”

“Closing costs typically range from 1.5 to four per cent of the home’s purchase price and include things like legal and administrative fees, your home inspection, appraisal fees and more. So, you need to budget for this. Its my job to make sure you’re asking all of the right questions and I’m giving you the information you need to make informed decisions.”

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As a licensed realtor with RE/MAX P.A. Realty, Zdrill has the option to show any property on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) database. He prides himself on understanding the market and current trends including property prices and the community.

“Prince Albert continues to have a lot of things happening with the construction of the new hospital, swimming pool and rinks. When I got into real estate over a year ago, I believed Prince Albert was a community on the verge of a boom and we’re starting to see that come to fruition.”

Selling or buying a home involves a multitude of moving parts, from negotiations to closing procedures and Zdrill is committed to helping his clients navigate the complexities with confidence.

Contact Glenn Zdrill through the RE/MAX P.A. Realty office at 2370 – Second Ave. W or give him a call at 306-961-5767.

*Please note, this article is not intended to solicit any properties already listed for sale.

**This content was created by paNOW’s commercial content division.

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Ontario regulator freezes assets of unlicensed builder

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The extraordinary measures Ontario’s new homes regulator is taking to deal with a Toronto builder with a history of sanctions highlight the challenge posed by unlicensed builders.

On March 19, the Home Construction Regulatory Authority (HCRA) froze the assets of Albion Building Consultant Inc. Court documents said that an investigation found evidence that the company took money for as many as 53 separate homes in Toronto it did not have the proper licences to build or sell.

The number of homes allegedly illegally built by Albion is several times larger than previously believed, which the HCRA said prompted it to invoke rarely used powers.

The freezing of assets was not punitive, but “to hold any purchaser funds in trust … to prohibit [Albion] from transferring any assets [and] to preserve the deposits for the benefit of homebuyers,” said Wendy Moir, the HCRA’s chief executive officer and registrar.

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Ontario’s new home regulations are split between two delegated authorities, HCRA and Tarion. HCRA, which was launched in 2021, licenses builders and polices their conduct. Tarion approves the number of homes a builder can enroll in its home warranty program, an insurance pool that protects new home deposits and serves as a backstop for builder defect complaints.

If homes are built or sold without licences, they cannot be enrolled in the Tarion program, limiting the buyers’ recourse in the event of defaults by the builder.

“The HCRA is taking appropriate action to protect the public and send a clear message to the industry that those who act unlawfully or unethically will be held accountable,” said Ms. Moir.

The principals of Albion – Zamal Hossain and his wife Farida Haque – have already been convicted four times for regulatory offences related to 16 homes built without licences between 2016 and 2022. But in a search warrant application the HCRA filed on Feb. 20 with the Ontario Court of Justice, the agency outlines dozens of other new-build homes Albion is alleged to have sold or constructed. Those allegations have yet to be proven in court.

The warrant is only the second one the relatively new agency has served. It allowed investigators to comb through Albion’s office at 3028 Danforth Ave. in Toronto for any records of contracts and agreements with buyers about the homes, contracts with trades and subtrades, contact information for the new home purchasers and any correspondence between Albion and purchasers about the new homes.

“We got a lot of information from them – a van full of documents,” said Ms. Moir. “We have hundreds of documents to go through,” she said. “This is one of our largest investigations.”

Albion’s business has been to tear down a single detached home, split the lot and then construct two new homes on the old site. The HCRA warrant suggests the majority of the 53 suspected unlicensed homes are lot-splits located mainly in Scarborough. It’s unclear as yet how many homes the company actually completed.

In the past, Tarion extended a licence to build homes to Mr. Hossain and Albion, but limited the number of new homes he was allowed to enroll into its insurance program.

The evidence HCRA submitted for the search warrant suggests that the actual number of unlicensed homes built by Albion was several times higher than Mr. Hossain admitted.

Mr. Hossain didn’t respond to requests for comment for this story, but in 2023 he offered this comment to The Globe on his previous convictions: “Yes I broke the law. I did the house without the Tarion [new home warranty]. … I didn’t murder anybody.”

According to Ms. Moir, there’s no clear tally of how many unlicensed builders there are in the province. She notes that it is not illegal to build your own home without a licence. But if you hire a contractor to do it, they must be licensed.

“We’ve seen an 80-per-cent increase in illegal building complaints since last year,” she said. “I don’t think it’s more illegal building, we think it’s more awareness.”

Neil Rodgers, Interim CEO of the Ontario Home Builders Association, said the Albion case puts a spotlight on the need for regulatory fixes to tackle illegal vending where an unlicensed builder takes deposits to build homes they aren’t entitled to sell or build.

“There has to be a pro-active regulatory regime,” said Mr. Rodgers. “There needs to be a system put in place that allows for what I’m going to call early warning tracking, whereby purchasers or their agents or their solicitors could register their agreements of purchase and sale with HCRA or Tarion. If there’s a pattern that’s emerging it gives the regulator an opportunity to intervene much faster.”

Mr. Rodgers likens this requirement on buyers to share details of their agreement of purchase and sale’s with HCRA or another agency as similar to mailing a warranty card for an electronic appliance, and says he’s calling on the province for consultations on changes to the requirements.

Karen Somerville of the consumer lobby group Canadians for Properly Built Homes (CPBH) doesn’t agree the burden should be on consumers to identify unlicensed builders, and points to a different screening where there’s already been pilot programs in the past: construction permitting.

“CPBH proposes that the municipality has the responsibility to notify HCRA given the information available in the building permit application,” Ms. Somerville said. “This would result in government organizations working together using information they already have to identify unlicensed builders.”

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