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Powell Sees Hope and Uncertainties for Economy in Vaccines – Yahoo Canada Finance

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The Canadian Press

Top secret: Biden gets access to President’s Daily Brief

WILMINGTON, Del. — Joe Biden has had his first look as president-elect at the President’s Daily Brief, a top secret summary of U.S. intelligence and world events — a document former first lady Michelle Obama has called “The Death, Destruction, and Horrible Things Book.”
Biden has already had eyes on different iterations of the so-called PDB, which is tailored to the way each president likes to absorb information.
More than a decade ago, Biden read President George W. Bush’s PDB during Biden’s transition into the vice presidency. After that, he read President Barack Obama’s PDB for eight years. Beginning Monday, after a four-year break, he’s reading President Donald Trump’s PDB.
“The briefers almost certainly will be asking Biden what he prefers in terms of format and style,” said David Priess, author of “The President’s Book of Secrets,” a history of the PDB. “At a minimum, they’re seeing what seems to resonate most with him so that when they make the book his book, they can tailor it to him.”
Obama’s PDB was a 10- to 15-page document tucked in a leather binder, which he found waiting for him on the breakfast table. Later in his presidency, he liked reading the ultra-secret intelligence brief on a secured iPad.
“Michelle called it “The Death, Destruction, and Horrible Things Book,” Obama wrote in his recently released book, ”A Promised Land.”
“On a given day, I might read about terrorist cells in Somalia or unrest in Iraq or the fact that the Chinese or Russians were developing new weapons systems,” Obama wrote. “Nearly always, there was mention of potential terrorist plots, no matter how vague, thinly sourced, or unactionable — a form of due diligence on the part of the intelligence community, meant to avoid the kind of second-guessing that had transpired after 9-11.”
From now until Inauguration Day, Biden and Vice-President-elect Kamala Harris will be reading the PDB crafted for Trump, who had delayed giving Biden and Harris access to it as he contests the outcome of the election.
Trump, who prefers absorbing information in visual ways, likes short texts and graphics.
“Trump himself said during his campaign and during the transition in 2016 that he did not like reading long documents — that he preferred bullet points,” said Priess, who has not seen any of Trump’s PDBs. “It probably has charts, tables, graphs — things like that. Not the parody that people make that it’s like a cartoon book … but something that is more visual. But we don’t know for sure.”
The written brief, which Trump doesn’t always read, often is followed by a verbal briefing with an intelligence official, although those oral briefings stopped at least for a time in October. Priess said he didn’t know why they stopped or if they had resumed, but that they stopped at a time when Trump was spending much of his time on the campaign trail.
Before Trump authorized Biden to get the PDB as president-elect, Biden was given some intelligence background briefings as a candidate. But they were more general and did not include the nation’s top secrets.
The other thing that a president-elect gets is a briefing “on CIA’s covert actions,” former acting CIA director Mike Morell said at an event hosted by the Center for Presidential Transition based in Washington. “It’s important for the president-elect to get this briefing … because on Inauguration Day, these covert actions will become the new president’s.”
In 1961, President John F. Kennedy read his first brief while sitting on the diving board of a swimming pool at his retreat in the Blue Ridge Mountains of Virginia. President Lyndon Johnson liked to read his brief in the afternoon. President Richard Nixon relied on his national security adviser Henry Kissinger to peruse the briefs and tell him what he thought the president should know.
As the laborious recount of ballots dragged on in 2000, President Bill Clinton decided that then-Gov. George W. Bush should get access to his PDB just in case he was the winner. Bush became was the first incoming president to read it before he was president-elect.
Biden is getting the PDB later than usual because of Trump’s ongoing protest of the election results. Trump approved the briefings for Biden last Tuesday, a day after his administration approved the formal transition process to his successor.
When Biden walks into the Oval Office, he’ll be inheriting nuclear threats from North Korea and Iran, changing political dynamics in the Middle East, the winding down of America’s presence in Afghanistan and rising competition from China.
Biden had access to the PDB in Wilmington, Delaware. Harris received it in a secure room at the Commerce Department, where the presidential transition offices are located.
Even Biden, who has decades of experience in foreign policy, could be the victim of an old political adage that no matter how informed he thinks he is, he could learn otherwise from the PDB.
Former CIA Director Michael Hayden wrote in his book that revelations and new insight found in the PDB are known as “aw s—” moments. As in: “Aw s—,” he wrote, “wish we hadn’t said that during that campaign stop in Buffalo.”
___
Riechmann reported from Washington.

Deb Riechmann And Zeke Miller, The Associated Press

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Economy

Stocks Could Have a Muted Year, Even if the Economy Booms – Barron's

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Welcome to the Roaring ’20s. When the world finally bids good riddance to Covid-19, courtesy of a bevy of novel vaccines, expect Americans to emerge from their lairs with a joie de vivre not seen since the 1920s. That’s marvelous news for the economy, which could use some cheer after a punishing year, and for the many companies that will help keep the good times rolling.

Just don’t expect the party on Main Street to spread to Wall Street, which had a rollicking celebration of its own this past year. As a consequence, stock…

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The economy is ailing again and layoffs are rising, but vaccines offer hope for cure – MarketWatch

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It’s not just the lives of Americans that rest on a quick rollout of coronavirus vaccines, it’s the livelihoods of millions of people who lost their jobs during the pandemic.

Almost every forecast for the U.S. economy predicts a big rebound in growth and employment in 2021, but it sure doesn’t feel that way right now with the coronavirus still spreading like wildfire.

The last few weeks alone have shown weaker hiring, rising layoffs, and declining consumer spending, all of which point to a faltering economy.

Many businesses have closed, cut their operating hours and laid off workers, leaving some 10 million Americans who had jobs before the pandemic still out of work.

Also: The U.S. lost 140,000 jobs in December. How bad was it?

The bad news hasn’t stopped investors from piling more money into the stock market, however. They are also betting on a big rebound in the economy this year and next.

What they are watching most is the speed at which the vaccines are administered, how rapidly the pandemic recedes and what steps new President Joe Biden will take to boost the economy until the crisis passes.

Read: Consumer inflation increases in December on higher gas prices

Does that render moot the next month or two of economic data, the stuff that usually moves markets. Not all all.

These reports will tell us how much ground the economy has lost in the past few months, how much ground it has to make up —- and whether the hoped-for snapback in the economy is actually underway.

“Do the data over the next few months matter? They certainly do,” said Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial.

The key measure to watch is weekly jobless benefit claims, one of the few weekly government reports that’s very sensitive to changes in the health of the economy.

See: MarketWatch Economic Calendar

Jobless claims, a rough measure of layoffs, began to rise again in November just as the latest and biggest wave of coronavirus cases spread across the country. Last week new claims surged to almost 1 million from a pandemic low of 711,000 two and a half months ago.

Read: Jobless claims surge to 5-month high of 965,000

The report is not without its problems. A government watchdog agency found that jobless claims have been inflated during the pandemic.

Read: Jobless claims inflated, GAO finds

Also: Why the inaccurate jobless claims report is still useful to investors

Yet the direction of jobless claims has largely followed the path of the coronavirus cases and the resulting ups and downs in employment.

The latest snapshot on claims will be the most important report next week after the Martin Luther King holiday which closes financial markets on Monday, but most attention next week will be directed toward the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden on Wednesday.

Read: U.S. budget deficit climbs to $144 billion in December – and more red ink on the way

On Thursday Biden outlined a sweeping new proposal for up to $2 trillion in federal spending that included $1,400 cash payments to households, supplemental unemployment payments, and money for distributing COVID-19 vaccines, among other items, but it’s unclear how much will eventually pass Congress and how long it will take to filter into the broader economy. Stay tuned.

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Stocks Could Have a Muted Year, Even if the Economy Booms – Barron's

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Welcome to the Roaring ’20s. When the world finally bids good riddance to Covid-19, courtesy of a bevy of novel vaccines, expect Americans to emerge from their lairs with a joie de vivre not seen since the 1920s. That’s marvelous news for the economy, which could use some cheer after a punishing year, and for the many companies that will help keep the good times rolling.

Just don’t expect the party on Main Street to spread to Wall Street, which had a rollicking celebration of its own this past year. As a consequence, stock…

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