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The big problem with housing affordability

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Kean Birch is an associate professor in the department of geography at York University

I live in Toronto, and I rent. It was a deliberate choice when I first moved here in 2011, but now it’s not. I recently worked out that our family could buy a house valued at about $720,000 on our current rent: nothing close to the cost of a house on our street, currently selling for around double that. If we want to stay where we are – close to the subway, good schools and more – we can continue paying rent, or we can double our housing costs by buying in the neighbourhood. Buying would mean we’d be paying about 40 per cent to 50 per cent of our disposable income on housing, which is common in Toronto.

Now, we don’t want to spend that much on housing as it limits what else we can do. But my point is not to complain about our personal circumstances. Instead, it’s to highlight a gap in the housing affordability debate going on in Toronto right now – as well as the rest of the country. We saw an example of this debate during part one of The Globe and Mail’s National Housing Innovation Event Series, on Dec. 6. It showcased a series of speakers, including Evan Siddall, president of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., who started off arguing that the dream of housing ownership is unsustainable and that there’s a need for densification to reduce housing costs. Other speakers made similar points, including that increasing supply hasn’t solved anything. Contradictorily, most speakers also argued that increasing supply of the “missing middle” – of low-rise rental apartments – is a key solution to the problem.

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This won’t solve housing affordability, however, for a relatively fundamental reason: Housing is an asset. What does this mean for housing affordability?

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A couple of recent research notes coming out of the Bank of England highlight this issue. The authors – John Lewis and Fergus Cumming – say that housing has a dual quality: It provides “housing services” to its inhabitants and it’s an asset. You can buy those housing services using a mortgage (and not pay rent to someone), or you can rent them. Unlike other goods and services, you can’t store housing services – buying when cheap and saving to use later – so rent reflects current supply and demand in the market, but house prices entail another dynamic.

Since housing is also an asset, its “price is determined by the (net present discounted) future value of its annual yield” – to quote Mr. Lewis and Mr. Cumming. They note that because asset prices are determined by future yields, they rise and fall in response to the future returns on other assets, and are therefore especially responsive to real interest rates. Consequently, as interest rates fall, then asset prices will rise as investors move out of safer assets such as government bonds for more valuable future returns. The yield from the sale of housing services (i.e., rent) can stay the same over time (so no one is paying more rent) and house prices will still rise as interest rates fall since houses become a more attractive investment asset.

So, to simplify somewhat, a house on our street with an expected future return of $36,000 a year – our current rent – would mean that buyers should be willing to pay $360,000 for it when real interest rates are at 10 per cent, assuming a 10-year time period. But, when interest rates fall to 5 per cent, then buyers would value those same future returns more highly, paying double the price at $720,000; and at 2.5 per cent they’d pay $1.44-million. Rent doesn’t change, yet the price of a house does, and significantly. And, it’s important to remember, these numbers don’t include mortgage interest. Counterintuitively, this means as interest rates fall and remain low, it becomes more expensive and takes longer to buy a house. Research by the Bank of International Settlement supports this argument.

Putting this dynamic together with the massive injection of surplus capital that various central banks released into the global economic system through quantitative easing after the 2008 global financial crisis highlights the fundamental problem we’re facing when it comes to housing affordability. Until interest rates rise, house prices will stay high because housing represents an in-demand and relatively safe asset class. At the Housing Innovation Event, Cherise Burda from Ryerson University made this very point, saying that 90 per cent of downtown condos in Toronto are investment vehicles.

But – and here’s the problem – if interest rates are raised, then this will erode the value of housing assets: It’s an intractable policy choice in the current political climate. No one dares to threaten the status quo, which is why we end up with political parties pursuing policies to expand mortgage access even further and simply exacerbating the problem of housing affordability.

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Final Offer Launches in Canada Bringing Transparency to the Canadian Real Estate Market – Canada NewsWire

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TORONTO, April 25, 2024 /CNW/ – Final Offer, a new online platform for real estate brokerages, agents, home sellers and buyers to leverage the negotiation and offer process, has officially launched in Canada. In partnership with Royal LePage Signature Realty, Royal LePage Your Community Realty and Royal LePage Connect Realty, Final Offer empowers licensed real estate agents to provide a more transparent offer and negotiation experience for the consumer.

For decades, Canadians looking to buy or sell a home have looked for greater transparency during the process.  With the implementation of the Trust in Real Estate Services Act, 2002 (TRESA), Final Offer aligns itself well to disclose to the public exactly what sellers want for their home, including the price and terms. Potential buyers and their real estate agents receive real-time notifications of any action on the property, including when offers are made. Every buyer gets a fair shot at purchasing the property for its true market valueSellers are confident they got the best outcome and achieved their goal.

“The way homes have been bought and sold hasn’t evolved in 100 years, until now,” says Nathan Dart, Senior Vice President of Final Offer. “We set out to enhance the way agents, sellers and buyers collaborate in the offer process by ensuring transparency and visibility. This is particularly important during a time of high housing costs in Canada. We’re thrilled to partner with such well respected market leaders in the GTA that are elevating the home buying and selling experience for all parties.”

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Final Offer has attracted the attention of top real estate leaders in Canada looking to maximize the value of their sellers’ homes, while also giving their buyers transparency into what it will take to make an offer that will be accepted. Agents submit offers for their buyers on finaloffer.com and an interested buyer can have their real estate agent submit their “final offer” at any time and immediately put the home under contract.

“As an owner and operator of a real estate brokerage, I’ve seen the disappointment of our agents’ clients who lost out on their dream home for only a few thousand dollars or sellers who question if they got as much for their home as they possibly could,” says Chris Slightham, Owner and President of Royal LePage Signature Realty. “The ability to see offers in real time and to set and make a ‘final offer’ creates greater transparency and puts all parties in control. After introducing this platform to our realtors, they are seeing the confidence it gives their clients when making purchasing decisions. I believe Final Offer is going to change how real estate is transacted in Canada and beyond.”

Licensed real estate agents, sellers and buyers can all sign up for an account on finaloffer.com. There is no cost for sellers, buyers, and real estate agents making offers for their clients. Agents representing sellers can subscribe for a monthly fee.

“Realtors play a monumental role when advising clients throughout the home sale and purchasing process,” says Vivian Risi, President and Broker of Record of Royal LePage Your Community Realty. “The expectations clients have of their agent have never been higher. Partnering with Final Offer empowers our agents with the latest technology and data to set a strategy with clients to achieve the outcome they desire.”

Final Offer is currently available in Ontario, with further regions to come. Final Offer’s mission is to bring transparency, fairness and efficiency to the Canadian real estate market by empowering all parties involved to make informed decisions during the complex real estate transaction process.

“Canadians are looking for transparency in their real estate negotiations and Final Offer delivers,” says Michelle Risi, Broker of Record of Royal LePage Connect Realty. “There is no better tool available that our agents can use to deliver clear information and real time offer alerts that buyers and sellers demand.”

About Final Offer:
Final Offer is the sole consumer-centric platform, driven by agents, dedicated to managing and negotiating offers for residential real estate. The platform champions transparency throughout the buying and selling process and includes real-time offer alerts, promoting fairness and equity for all parties involved. For more information, visit finaloffer.com.

SOURCE Final Offer

For further information: Media Contact: Samantha Jen, [email protected]

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Luxury Real Estate Prices Hit a Record High in the First Quarter

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Luxury home prices have been rising at a steady pace, and so far this year, values have hit a fresh record high. According to a new Q1 report by the real estate site Redfin, the cost of luxury residential properties—those estimated to be in the top 5 percent of their respective metro area—rose by 9 percent compared to last year and increased twice as fast as non-luxury homes. At the same time, high-end abodes sold for a median price of $1.22 million in the first quarter, a new benchmark from the $1.17 million set in the fourth quarter of 2023.

“People with the means to buy high-end homes are jumping in now because they feel confident prices will continue to rise,” explained David Palmer, a Redfin Premier agent in the Seattle metro area, where the median sale price for luxury homes is a whopping $2.7 million. “They’re ready to buy with more optimism and less apprehension. It’s a similar sentiment on the selling side: prices continue to increase for high-end homes, so homeowners feel it’s a good time to cash in on their equity.”

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To that point, the number of sales of luxury homes saw a 2.1 percent uptick from the year prior. In January, luxury sales began seeing consistent, year-over-year increases for the first time since August 2021. Another notable trend is that buyers are shelling out all-cash offers. Per the report, 46.8 percent of high-end residences purchased between January and March 2024 were paid for in cash, a staggering 44.1 percent gain from last year and the highest percentage in a decade.

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Luxury home prices in Providence, Rhode Island increased 16.2 percent in the first quarter of 2024.

Redfin found that Providence, Rhode Island, had the biggest jump in luxury prices in Q1, with values rising to $1.4 million, a steep 16.2 percent gain. Next was New Brunswick, New Jersey, where the median sale price bounced up 15 percent to $1.9 million. On the flip side, there were eight metros where luxury home prices dipped. Leading that pack was New York City, where prices dropped 9.9 percent to $3.25 million, followed by Austin, Texas, with a 6.9 percent decline.

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Montreal tenant forced to pay his landlord’s taxes offers advice to other renters

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David Siscoe has some advice for fellow renters across the country: get proof that your landlord is paying their taxes, or at least make sure you’ve got a property manager who’s responsible.

Mr. Siscoe is the Montreal tenant who was audited and assessed by Canada Revenue Agency in 2018 and ordered to pay six years’ worth of his non-resident landlord’s withholding taxes, as reported recently by the Globe and Mail. Mr. Siscoe says he did not know his landlady was a non-resident.

He also didn’t know that tenants renting from a non-resident are required to withhold and remit 25 per cent of their rent to CRA each month, unless they have a property manager doing it for them, or if the non-resident has made alternate arrangements to pay their taxes.

“How is there no onus on the CRA to make sure that tenants are aware of this?” he asks. “I didn’t have a clue.”

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The CRA had been unable to collect from his overseas landlord. He was then assessed for the unpaid withholding taxes, as well as compounded interest and penalties that added up to about $80,000, he says. In March, 2023, he took the Minister of National Revenue to Tax Court and lost.

Foreign landlord fails to pay taxes, CRA goes after tenant

The only break he was given was a reduction in the number of years he owed for, from six to three. He says he now owes around $43,000, although he believes more interest and penalties have since accrued. And he’s already paid nearly double that amount in accounting and legal fees.

Mr. Siscoe and his wife were paying nearly $3,000 a month in rent at 501-4175 Rue Sainte Catherine ouest, in Westmount, Que., an enclave of Montreal. Mr. Siscoe is a 1988 Canadian Olympic athlete and two-time taekwondo world champion who owns a gym.

The 61-year-old said he still hasn’t settled his debt with CRA, and his lawyer told him that it’s unlikely they’ll be willing to negotiate.

“They were acting like a dog on a bone,” he says of his initial communications with the tax agency. “They proceeded to suggest that we were knowingly paying a non-Canadian resident money, and I was a little flabbergasted.”

“I said, ‘You are trying to suggest I knowingly paid her 100 per cent of the rent because I wanted to be burdened with her tax implications? Is that what you are trying to suggest?’ I felt like this is a joke somehow.” Mr. Siscoe explained that he had rented unit 501 for more than 20 years, going back to 1996. He says that in 2010, the landlord told him to start making the rent payments to his sister. The new lease agreement had a Montreal address on it, and he hadn’t paid attention to the fact that the new landlady had signed the document in Italy, he says. Mr. Siscoe said she visited the apartment a few times over the years, and it was only after he got audited that he discovered she was living in Italy. After he realized he was on the hook for her tax bill, he and his wife and their kids moved out of the unit a few months later.

Mr. Siscoe did not want to share his landlady’s contact information for this story, on advice of counsel.

After the Siscoe family moved out, they learned that the former landlady had put the condo on the market, and Mr. Siscoe notified the CRA that they had an opportunity to collect the taxes she owed. He never found out if they tried.

In court documents, Mr. Siscoe argued that his landlord had given a Canadian address on the deed of sale when she purchased the unit; she had a Canadian social insurance number; and his rent cheques were going to a TD Canada account in Montreal.

Also in court documents, the CRA provided evidence that showed the landlord hadn’t filed income tax returns; she didn’t have any links to property in Canada other than the rental unit; her phone number on the lease was an Italian phone number; she had used an Italian e-mail address to correspond with Mr. Siscoe; and she had told the CRA auditor she lived in Italy.

The withholding tax has been around for decades. The problem for tenants arises when a non-resident landlord doesn’t pay it. And non-resident owned properties represent a substantial share of the secondary rental market in Canada.

Considering the risk to tenants – amid a housing crisis – Mr. Siscoe wonders why CRA didn’t put a lien against the rental property, or at least act to collect on the debt when the property sold.

Mr. Siscoe’s lawyer, Mr. Luu, says that all the CRA must do is establish liability to collect on the debt, and he said there doesn’t appear to be a guideline on how they do that.

“Whether the CRA could have collected the rent in some other way does not impact his liability under the law. The CRA and the Tax Court have to apply the law as it is written.

“That’s why if we want any meaningful change, we need to change the law and it’s for the Department of Finance to intervene.”

In an e-mail response, Caroline Theriault, deputy spokesperson and media relations manager for the Department of Finance, said that the requirement for renters helps to ensure that CRA obtains information on rental income non-residents might be earning in Canada. It also “helps facilitate collection of the resulting tax,” she said.

“This does not cost renters anything,” said Ms. Thériault, adding that it is standard practice.

A CRA spokesperson said in an e-mail that they encourage non-resident landlords to hire property managers. Otherwise, tenants are required to withhold the amount and fill out a Form NR4.

“If the non-resident fails to remit, the tenant is responsible for the full amount,” said the statement.

CRA’s practice is to “make every effort” to assess the non-resident owner rather than the individual tenant.

The agency pointed to a legal website that offered tips on ways renters can protect themselves, including a land title search on the landlord, asking the landlord for a certificate of residency, writing an indemnity clause into the lease agreement, and being on the lookout for any requests to redirect rent payment to someone else.

Adam Chambers, Conservative shadow Minister for National Revenue, which oversees the CRA, took issue with the policy and called the CRA’s reaction “cruel measures in the tax code that unfairly punish renters who have done no wrong.”

Real estate lawyer Ron Usher, who is general counsel for the Society of Notaries Public of B.C., where a non-resident owns one in 10 new condos, says that for every sale by a nontax resident, a clearance certificate from CRA must be obtained.

“Until CRA provides it, the notary will retain the amount in trust.”

To prevent Mr. Siscoe’s situation, he suggests a system whereby CRA is notified of any non-tax-resident real estate purchases. At that point, CRA would send the purchaser notice of tax obligations and issue an individual tax number if they don’t qualify for a social insurance number.

Mr. Siscoe said he is doing his best not to dwell on the situation. But he wants Canadian renters to beware.

“Don’t get me wrong. If me being angry could change the outcome, yes, I would be angry. But I’m not going to let them take more from me than they’ve taken,” he says.

“As an athlete, I spent my career travelling around the world, holding my country’s flag … but your own country can say, ‘Let’s screw him over.’”

He and his wife are renting another place, but it’s different this time.

“Right away I said [to the landlord], ‘I need to know you are paying your Canadian taxes, and I need it in writing.’”

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