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How much further do real estate prices have to fall?

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Home prices in Canada’s biggest markets ended 2022 well below the soaring peaks posted earlier in the year. Now the question is: How much further do they have to fall?

According to local real estate boards, the composite benchmark price for a home in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) peaked at $1,370,000 in March of 2022, while homes in Vancouver topped out at $1,374,500 in April and Calgary homes hit a high of $546,000 in May.

When comparing each region’s peak against December’s benchmark price results, Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary have dropped by 21 per cent, 19 per cent and nearly five per cent, respectively.

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In all cases, the declines commenced after the Bank of Canada began to raise interest rates in March — whether prices continue to fall in 2023 may depend as much on the path of interest rates as anything else.

BMO chief economist Douglas Porter, for one, projects that high interest rates will continue to pummel the housing market in 2023, predicting home prices slip another 12 per cent and sales fall another 15 per cent.

“We don’t look for rate relief until 2024,” he said in a Dec. 23 note to clients.

For other industry experts, the consensus seems to be that home prices will slide in 2023, but that a bottom might be in sight.

We don’t look for rate relief until 2024

Douglas Porter

They reason that the anticipated demand for housing from the record number of immigrants expected to settle in the nation’s major housing markets — in addition to interest from buyers who have been waiting for lower prices — will offer support.

“If we don’t see a meaningful shift upwards in terms of supply then that would start to exert upward pressure on prices once again,” Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) chief market analyst Jason Mercer said in an interview.

In June, The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) concluded that the country would need to build 3.5 million new homes by 2030 to reduce its shortfall and improve affordability — but follow-up research found that there will only be enough labour to increase the number of starts in four major provinces — Ontario, Québec, B.C. and Alberta — by 30 to 50 per cent.

Porter said he believes it will be “impossible” for governments to deliver the number of housing starts they’ve promised in the coming years.

Right at Home Realty CEO John Lusink, meanwhile, said that although sales and supply were down in 2022, he sees things picking up in the GTA in the spring.

“It’s been quiet but I will tell you, these agents are all talking about listing clients who are getting ready to put properties on the market in the spring,” Lusink said.

We will continue to feel the impact of higher borrowing costs

John DiMichele

Full year data on Toronto’s housing market was released by TRREB early Thursday.

It showed there were 152,873 new listings reported through TRREB’s MLS system in 2022 — an 8.2 per cent decline compared to 166,600 new listings in 2021. Home sales, at 75,140 units, did not fair any better, down 38.2 per cent from 2021’s record of 121,639 units.

The average price of a home sold over the course of the year checked in at $1,189,850 — about 8.6 per cent above the average selling price in 2021 — but those gains were largely attributable to strength early in the year.

On a month-over-month basis, December’s composite benchmark price was down just 0.77 per cent to $1,081,400 from $1,089,800 in November, though the average selling price was down 9.28 per cent.

Sales also showed a glimmer of hope, increasing by 1.1 per cent despite being down 48 per cent from December 2021.

TRREB CEO John DiMichele said that there are two opposing forces buffeting the housing market.

“On the one hand, we will continue to feel the impact of higher borrowing costs. On the other hand, record levels of immigration will support demand for ownership and rental housing, while we struggle to come to terms with a housing and infrastructure deficit in the Greater Golden Horseshoe,” DiMichele said in the report.

Figures for Montreal were also released Thursday. The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers said home sales in Montreal in December fell 39 per cent from a year earlier to a level not seen in December since 2014.

The real estate organization said sales for the month amounted to 2,232 and contributed to a 2022 sales total of 21,371, 20 per cent below 2021.

The board said it’s typical for December to bring fewer sales and new listings, but the 2,359 properties that hit the Montreal market last month was a level not seen since 2002.

New listings in the month represented a seven per cent decline from the year before, but 2022 still saw two per cent more new properties on the market than in 2021.

Median prices for single-family homes fell three per cent from the year before to $510,000, while condos edged down one per cent to $375,000 and plexes sank six per cent to $690,000.

— With additional reporting from the Canadian Press

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A settlement in a U.S. lawsuit could upend the cornerstone of real estate industry: commissions – CBC.ca

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The cost of selling a home in the United States may be about to change dramatically.

A real estate trade group has agreed to a landmark deal to drop what was once a cornerstone of the industry: the six per cent sales commission paid to agents.

In Canada, two lawsuits filed against various real estate bodies want the courts to come to the same conclusion and force wholesale change in the way Realtors charge their fees when a home is sold.

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“We got here by a cartel of brokerages and real estate associations that control the rules, and they’ve done it for a very long time,” said Garth Myers, a litigator with Toronto law firm Kalloghlian Myers.

He filed the proposed class-action lawsuits in Federal Court on behalf of plaintiffs who allege that the Canadian Real Estate Association, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board and several local brokerages and franchisors conspired to set fees and illegally drive up the price of real estate commissions.

At the heart of both the U.S. and Canadian cases is the opaque way in which real estate agents charge their fees.

Lawsuits revolve around Competition Act

In Canada, there are different fee structures in different jurisdictions. In Ontario, for example, a commission of five per cent of a home’s sale price is split between the buyer’s and seller’s agents.

With the average price of a Toronto home at $1,225,000 last month, Realtor fees would amount to $61,250.

In Vancouver, Realtors charge seven per cent on the first $100,000 of the sale price, and between 2.5 and three per cent on the balance. So agents would split between $29,500 and $34,000 in fees on a $1-million home.

A real estate 'For Sale' sign outside a single-family home.
In Canada, there are different fee structures for real estate agents in different jurisdictions. In Vancouver, Realtors charge seven per cent on the first $100,000 of the sale price, and between 2.5 and three per cent on the balance. (Ben Nelms/CBC)

In the U.S., agents generally charge a commission of five or six per cent.

But what is common among those different jurisdictions is that the fee paid to the buyer’s agent is baked into the price of the home, while a seller can negotiate with their agent and get a better fee.

A potential buyer can look up the details of a home on something called the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). The listing includes everything they would want to know about a property — from size and taxes to upgrades and amenities — but it doesn’t disclose the amount a buyer will pay in Realtor fees.

Myers said the existing system enables agents to steer clients away from homes that aren’t paying the full commission.

“It’s clear to us that consumers are being ripped off, it’s clear to us that the rules elevate the cost of buyer brokerage commissions,” he said. “Now the open question that the court is going to have to resolve is whether this is criminal conduct under the Competition Act. And that’s what we’re fighting about in court.”

It will likely take years before the cases are resolved.

WATCH | How sweeping U.S. real estate changes could impact Canada:

How sweeping U.S real estate changes could impact Canada

8 hours ago

Duration 6:22

A landmark legal settlement is upending the U.S. real estate market. CBC’s Peter Armstrong breaks down the possible ripple effects for home buyers and sellers in Canada.

U.S. industry pushes back

In the U.S., there is already fierce disagreement over what the court settlement — which ends legal claims from home sellers over real estate commissions — actually means.

On March 15, the day the $418-million US settlement was announced, the National Association of Realtors said fees have always been set by the market, not by collusion among agents. Besides, the group said, those fees have always been negotiable.

“Offers of compensation help make professional representation more accessible, decrease costs for home buyers to secure these services, increase fair housing opportunities, and increase the potential buyer pool for sellers,” the association said in a statement outlining the broad points of the agreement.

Rows of houses are shown in a subdivision.
A housing subdivision is shown in Middlesex Township, Pa., in April 2023. In the U.S., there is disagreement over what the $418-million US court settlement — which ends legal claims from home sellers over real estate commissions — actually means. (Gene J. Puskar/The Associated Press)

Since then, high-profile brokerages have pushed back against the notion that the industry will be forced to change as a result.

“Since the settlement announcement, there have been numerous articles and stories in the media on what this means for buyers and sellers,” Budge Huskey, president and CEO of Premier Sotheby’s International Realty in Naples, Fla., said in a statement released on Tuesday.

“Regrettably, most reflect a profound lack of understanding of the real estate business as well as mistaken claims.”

Huskey said the notion that sellers will no longer pay a fee to the buyer’s agent is simply false.

“There has never been any obligation for a seller to pay buyer agent compensation at any time, yet it has been a historical practice that’s worked exceedingly well since the advent of modern residential real estate,” he said.

Realtors in Canada, such as ReMax, aren’t saying much publicly while the cases work their way through the courts. A spokesperson for the organization would only say that “we do not comment on ongoing litigation.”

U.S. reaction watched closely here

“It’s important to note the litigations in Canada and the U.S. occur in different legal and factual contexts, and the litigations are at a much earlier stage here in Canada,” the Canadian Real Estate Association said in a statement to CBC News, adding that “we’ll continue to review U.S. developments.”

The statement goes on to say that buyers and sellers in Canada “have always been able to negotiate commissions with their agent…. On the buyer side, buyer representation agreements are required in at least seven provinces in Canada. These agreements set out terms like services and fees between an agent and their buyer. This represents more than 80 per cent of homes sold in Canada.”

Real estate experts on this side of the border have been watching the U.S. reaction very closely.

A man with grey hair and a grey beard, wearing a blue overcoat and tie, stands outside a building.
Murtaza Haider, a professor of real estate management at Toronto Metropolitan University, says he thinks the lawsuits in Canada will lead to the same outcome as those in the U.S. because the two real estate systems are so similar. (Pelin Sidiki/CBC)

Murtaza Haider, a professor of real estate management at Toronto Metropolitan University, said the two systems are so similar that he believes the court cases here will lead to the same outcome as those in the U.S.

But, he said, people should temper their expectations.

“We won’t have a system blow up. It’s basically giving the buyer the rights to negotiate with the agent, a commission for the services they may or may not use,” Haider said.

Down the road, he imagines a system where some buyers pay an agent a full commission to help them find a home, figure out a price and close the sale, while others will simply need someone to help them file the paperwork.

Haider warned that there may be some unintended consequences to changing the system. Currently, he said, the fee paid to both the buyer’s and seller’s agents is essentially included in the price of the home. Fees are not an extra closing cost outside the home price.

“Right now it’s baked into the mortgage amount, so you don’t have an out-of-pocket policy. But [if you] have the flexibility and freedom to negotiate, that amount [may be] coming out of your own pocket right away,” Haider said.

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Confidence growing among buyers as spring real estate market opens

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Open this photo in gallery:

Patrick Rocca, a broker with Bosley Real Estate, is listing a traditional four-bedroom house with a centre hall plan in south Leaside with an asking price of $2.399-million. He will allow offers any time at 111 Hanna Rd. because it is in the price bracket above $2-million.Bosley Real Estate Ltd.

The Toronto-area real estate market is heading into April with some renewed vigour now that March break has passed for Ontario schools.

Patrick Rocca, broker with Bosley Real Estate Ltd., holds off on listing homes that appeal to families during school breaks.

In Ontario, public schools take a one-week sojourn and private schools are off for two weeks.

With the Easter holiday falling in late March this year, many sellers have been holding off until April. Some activity has been dampened by the lack of supply.

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“There still is a lack of inventory – I think that’s going to change,” says Mr. Rocca, who is preparing to launch several listings in the coming weeks.

Some agents do list during school breaks because they figure not every family leaves town and the seller may benefit from competing with fewer rival listings.

But Mr. Rocca prefers to wait until more buyers are likely to be home and focused on house hunting.

“If you want to cover your bases and get 100 per cent of your market, wait until after March break,” says Mr. Rocca.

He viewed one house recently that was listed in March around the $2-million mark with an offer date scheduled for three weeks later instead of the usual one week.

The listing agent explained she wanted to give people a chance to return from vacation.

“Guess what – it’s still sitting on the market,” he says.

Mr. Rocca adds that prices are firming up again after sagging during the fall as buyers gain confidence that interest rates are not likely to rise.

One client was interested in a house that Mr. Rocca advised would be a good deal for about $2.5-million in the fall but the buyer wanted to hold out for a discount to the $2.3-million level.

The property was recently relisted and sold for $2.7-million, he says.

Houses are selling quickly in the segment below $2-million, he adds. Above that mark, deals are slower to come together.

“There’s still caution – it’s not 100-per-cent optimism – but it’s better than it was.”

Against that backdrop, the strategy of choosing an attention-getting asking price and setting a date to review offers is still risky, in his opinion. Agents typically set a deadline for reviewing offers when they expect multiple bidders.

Mr. Rocca is listing a traditional four-bedroom house with a centre-hall plan in south Leaside with an asking price of $2.399-million. He will allow offers any time at 111 Hanna Rd. because it is in the price bracket above $2-million.

Another property in north Leaside with an asking price of $1.9-million will also be listed without an offer date. But an older bungalow with an asking price of $1.6-million will have an offer date, he says, because it’s the type of property that appeals to a broad range of buyers, including families who plan to live in it and builders who may purchase it for redevelopment.

Ira Jelinek, real estate agent with Harvey Kalles Real Estate, recently worked with one couple who are selling their house in Toronto’s Yorkville neighbourhood in order to move to Durham Region, east of the city.

The couple has grown tired of the concentration of people and traffic around Avenue and Davenport roads, he says. In the smaller town of Whitby, Ont., they’ve found a house in an established suburb.

In addition to living with less congestion, they’re closer to family, he adds.

But overall Mr. Jelinek sees a shortage of listings in central Toronto this spring because many people who might downsize from their family homes are choosing to hold onto them.

Mr. Jelinek expects buyers to remain guarded until the Bank of Canada begins to cut interest rates.

“They’re very cautious before they make an offer.”

Farah Omran, senior economist at Bank of Nova Scotia, notes that housing sales in many markets across Canada dropped in February from January on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Peterborough, Ont. led the national decline with a fall of 15.2 per cent, while sales in St. Catharines, Ont. dropped 14.3 per cent and the Greater Toronto Area, 12 per cent.

Nationally, sales dipped 3.1 per cent in February from January.

Ms. Omran cautions against focusing too closely on monthly changes in the housing market – whether the swing is upwards or down. She notes that February’s sales were still higher than December’s tally and each of the three months before that.

Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics, points to the data showing national house prices were flat in February compared with January as confirmation that prices have stabilized.

In addition, the latest data show inflation pressures are easing, says Mr. Brown, who sees a growing likelihood the Bank of Canada will cut its benchmark interest rate in June.

The economist doesn’t rule out a rate cut in April, but house prices may rise in the next few months, he says, which leads him to believe the policy-setting committee will wait to see how the real estate market heats up during the busy spring season rather than risk pouring fuel on the fire.

Mr. Brown is also keeping an eye on the federal government’s plan to restrict the number of temporary residents in Canada.

Last week Ottawa announced they will cut the share of temporary residents to 5 per cent of the total population from 6.2 per cent over the next three years.

Mr. Brown says population growth is set to plunge as a result and the new immigration plan raises the risk that the central bank will cut in April, though he still believes June is more likely.

Looking ahead, Mr. Rocca expects a brisk market at the peak of spring, followed by a traditional summer slowdown.

“I think it’s going to be busy right through until June.”

The fall may bring another spurt of activity – especially if the central bank cuts interest rates, he says.

But Mr. Rocca is warning sellers that the peak prices of 2022 are not returning any time soon.

“If you want to wait for a $2-million semi, wait a couple of years.”

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Jon Stewart found to have overvalued his NYC home by 829% after labeling Trump’s civil case ‘not victimless’

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Jon Stewart is facing online backlash after the comedian opined on air this week that Donald Trump’s civil real estate case for overvaluing his properties was “not victimless” — when it turns out the price of a previous home sale finds Stewart doing the exact same thing, The Post has learned.

On Monday night, Stewart, 61, unpacked Trump’s $454 million appeal bond, calling out experts framing the former president’s New York civil case as not causing direct harm to any individual.

“The Daily Show” host rolled a clip of CNN’s Laura Coates interviewing “Shark Tank” star Kevin O’Leary, who commented that the ruling didn’t “go over well” with the real estate industry that was now fretting over the possibility of becoming the next target.

Stewart’s episode on Monday night. The Daily Show/YouTube

Coates responds to O’Leary by highlighting that Trump was found liable for falsifying business records in the second degree, issuing false financial statements, insurance fraud and conspiracy, all due to asset inflation.

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“Everything that you just listed off is done by every real estate developer everywhere on Earth in every city. This has never been prosecuted,” O’Leary replied.

In response, Stewart asked: “How is he not this mad about overvaluations in the real world?”

“Because they are not victimless crimes,” he said.

To further his point, Stewart argued that “money isn’t infinite. A loan that goes to the liar doesn’t go to someone who’s giving a more honest evaluation. So the system becomes incentivized for corruption.”

“Shark Tank” star Kevin O’Leary slammed a New York judge’s ruling in Donald Trump’s civil fraud case. ABC via Getty Images

Stewart also contended that failing to declare a higher market value on a property, while paying taxes based on a lower assessed value, constitutes fraudulent behavior.

“The attorney general of New York knew that Trump’s property values were inflated because when it came time to pay taxes, Trump undervalued the very same properties,” Stewart added. “It was all part of a very specific real estate practice known as lying.”

But it didn’t take long for internet sleuths to look into Stewart’s own property history, which shows an overvaluation of his New York City penthouse by a staggering 829%, records confirmed by The Post show.

Stewart sold his 6,280-square-foot Tribeca duplex for $17.5 million in 2014. New York Post
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In 2014, Stewart sold his 6,280-square-foot Tribeca duplex to financier Parag Pande for $17.5 million. The property’s asking price at that time is not available in listing records.

But according to 2013-2014 assessor records obtained by The Post, the property had the estimated market-value at only $1.882 million. The actual assessor valuation was even lower, at $847,174.

Records also show that Stewart paid significantly lower property taxes, which were calculated based on that assessor valuation price — precisely what he called Trump out for doing in his Monday monologue.

Pande, who purchased the penthouse from Stewart, then resold the property at a nearly 26% loss, according to the Real Deal — at just over $13 million — in 2021.

The 2013-2014 property assessment of Jon Stewart’s Tribeca penthouse. NY Gov

Timothy Pool, a political commentator known for more right-leaning views, alleged on X that Stewart was being a hypocrite.

“Did @jonstewart commit fraud when he sold his penthouse for $17.5M? NY listed its market value at $1.8M an AV at around 800k… Who did he defraud?? I am SHOCKED,” he wrote.

“This is right in [Letitia James’] jurisdiction! I look forward to the grand jury indictment,” a user quipped in response to the tweet.

Stewart’s reps did not respond to The Post’s request for comment.

Meanwhile, the New York assessor valuation on Stewart’s former penthouse is the exact same citation method and metric that New York Attorney General Letitia James used to value Trump’s private and personal properties, and then sued him for inflating those assets.

This includes Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, known as his main residence, which was assessed at only $18 million at the time. Real estate brokers had valued the property at 50 times more than that amount.

Same for hisprivate 200-acre New York family estatein Westchester, which was assessed between $30 million and $56 million.

Trump had valued the property, known as Seven Springs, at $261 million.

Last month, Manhattan Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron ordered Trump to pay $355 million — and temporarily banned him from doing business in the state — relying heavily on the assessed valuations of the properties to determine the ruling.

The $454 million bond to appeal the ruling marks the highest bond ever recorded in United States history against a single individual.

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