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Trudeau, trailing in polls, defends early election call

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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, facing potential defeat in a snap Sept. 20 election, defended on Friday his decision to go to the polls early and said his main rival would undermine the country’s fight against COVID-19.

Trudeau, who heads a minority Liberal government that depends on the opposition to pass legislation, called the election in the hope that Canadians would reward his handling of the coronavirus pandemic with a clear majority of the seats in the House of Commons.

But polls show voters are unhappy that Trudeau, 49, who has held power for six years, called the vote during a fourth wave of the pandemic. Conservative leader Erin O’Toole, 48, holds a slight lead over the Liberal leader, surveys show.

Asked whether he regretted the election call, Trudeau told reporters in Hamilton, Ontario: “Absolutely not … What we see is a very clear contrast between all the different parties on how we need to move forward as a country.”

Attacked daily by rivals for taking Canadians to the polls this month, Trudeau has struggled to turn the campaign toward policy issues, and he is running out of time.

On Friday, a day after an inconclusive leaders’ debate, Trudeau blasted O’Toole for arguing that COVID-19 vaccinations are a personal choice and should not be mandated.

Unlike the Conservative leader, Trudeau requires his fellow Liberal candidates be inoculated against the virus and last month his center-left government introduced vaccine https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-pandemic-election-unvaccinated-candidates-are-knocking-doors-2021-08-23 mandates for domestic travel.

“He’s better and quicker to stand up for the rights of those who choose not to get vaccinated than he is for your wife and your kids’ rights to be safe from COVID-19,” Trudeau said as children played behind him on an indoor soccer field.

O’Toole also was campaigning in Ontario, which has the most parliamentary seats of all Canada‘s 10 provinces.

“Last night in the debate, I reminded Canadians that nobody asked for this election,” O’Toole said in Mississauga. “Justin Trudeau forced an election in the middle of a pandemic. Once again he put himself ahead of others.”

The final stretch of the campaign kicked off after Statistics Canada reported that the national unemployment rate fell to 7.1% in August, its lowest point since the onset of the pandemic.

“We have now recovered 95% of the jobs lost during the COVID recession,” Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said, speaking alongside Trudeau.

“Prices are rising. Our debt is rising, and our economy is shrinking,” O’Toole said, referring to an unexpected economic contraction https://www.reuters.com/business/canadian-economy-shrank-11-q2-july-gdp-seen-down-04-2021-08-31 in the second quarter. (See brief profiles of all candidates:)

A rolling Nanos Research poll of 1,200 voters on Thursday showed the Conservatives with 33.3% support and the Liberals at 31.3%. The left-leaning New Democrats had 19.2%.

(Additional reporting by David Ljunggren in OttawaEditing by Paul Simao)

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Politics Briefing: Post-debate Nanos poll shows the Liberals ahead in Ontario – The Globe and Mail

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The travel patterns of the party leaders make one thing clear: Federal elections are won and lost in the Greater Toronto Area, Quebec and British Columbia’s Lower Mainland.

To provide a more in-depth look at those key battlegrounds, Nanos Research combined its daily polling data over the past five days to produce larger sample sizes for regional battles. The five days cover Sept. 10 to 14, meaning all surveys were conducted after the Sept. 9 English-language leaders’ debate.

The results show the Liberals are well ahead in the GTA, but are essentially tied with the Conservatives in the rest of the province. For Ontario as a whole, the Liberals hold a 10-point lead with 40 per cent support, followed by the Conservatives at 30 per cent, the NDP at 20 per cent, the People’s Party at 7 per cent and the Greens at 3 per cent. The province-wide numbers are based on a sample size of 588 and have a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

In Quebec, the Liberals are slightly in front at 32 per cent, followed by the Bloc Québécois at 28 per cent, the Conservatives at 18 per cent, the NDP at 15 per cent, the People’s Party at 4 per cent and the Greens at 3 per cent. That is based on a sample size of 447 respondents, with a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives lead with 30 per cent support, followed by the Liberals at 28 per cent, the NDP at 26 per cent and the Greens and People’s Party tied at 8 per cent. That is based on a sample size of 300 respondents and has a margin of error of 5.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The polling data was collected as part of a daily tracking survey commissioned by The Globe and Mail and CTV News.

The Globe and Mail’s Marieke Walsh reports on the poll results here, including methodology and how pollster Nik Nanos is interpreting the data with just a few days left before election day on Monday.

Hello,

This is the daily Politics Briefing newsletter, written by Ian Bailey. Today’s newsletter is co-written with Bill Curry. It is available exclusively to our digital subscribers. If you’re reading this on the web, subscribers can sign up for the Politics newsletter and more than 20 others on our newsletter signup page. Have any feedback? Let us know what you think.

TODAY’S HEADLINES

TRUDEAU, O’TOOLE, SINGH CALL FOR APOLOGY OVER BILL 21 ENGLISH DEBATE QUESTION: All three major party leaders are calling for an apology from the consortium of media broadcasters that oversees the federal election debates over a question about Quebec laws during the recent English-language debate.

The question, posed by moderator Shachi Kurl to Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet during the Sept. 9 debate, has set off a firestorm of criticism in Quebec, including a unanimous call from the provincial National Assembly for a formal apology for the “hostile” views expressed “against the Quebec nation.” A report by the Globe and Mail’s election team is here.

CHRÉTIEN APPEARS ON CAMPAIGN TRAIL: Former prime minister Jean Chrétien made an appearance in support of Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau on the campaign trail, touting the Liberal government’s record as the party looks to gain ground in a competitive electoral race with less than a week to go until election day.

In a speech Tuesday evening to a packed room of about 400 supporters in Brampton, Ont., which is considered a key battleground, Mr. Chrétien spoke of the world being in turmoil and cited such issues as the impacts of climate change. The story by The Globe and Mail’s Kristy Kirkup is here.

TRUDEAU DEFENDS ONTARIO EVENT WITH 400 PEOPLE, SAYS ALL HEALTH GUIDELINES FOLLOWED: Mr. Trudeau is defending holding a packed campaign event in Brampton with 400 people on Tuesday evening, saying the event was in keeping with provincial guidelines despite criticism, including from Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole. Kristy Kirkup’s follow-up story is here.

SINGH SAYS CANDIDATES RESIGNING WAS THE ‘RIGHT DECISION’ AFTER ANTISEMITIC TWEETS SURACE: NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said that the resignations of two NDP candidates was the “right decision” after old Twitter posts recently came to light that were deemed to be antisemitic.

At a campaign stop in Windsor, Ont., on Wednesday morning, Mr. Singh was asked about Sidney Coles and Dan Osborne, two NDP candidates that were running in the ridings of Toronto-St. Paul’s and Nova Scotia’s Cumberland-Colchester, respectively. Both stepped down less than a week before election day, after old Twitter posts from each candidate resurfaced. The story by the Globe and Mail’s Menaka Raman-Wilms is here.

TRUDEAU WARNS PROGRESSIVES TO VOTE LIBERAL TO WARD OFF CONSERVATIVES, AS O’TOOLE COURTS QUEBEC: Mr. Trudeau appeared alongside the former leader of British Columbia’s Green Party on Tuesday to make a final attempt at appealing to progressive voters, arguing that the Liberals are the only party that can stop the Conservatives as election day draws near.

Meanwhile, Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole sent a letter to Quebec Premier François Legault in an effort to ease concerns about the Conservative Party’s child-care plan, as the Tory Leader looks to court Quebec voters. Story by the Globe and Mail’s election team is here.

CONSERVATIVE CANDIDATE APOLOGIZES FOR SPREADING COVID VACCINE MISINFORMATION: Manitoba Conservative candidate and incumbent Ted Falk has apologized after he was quoted in a local newspaper making the false claim that people are 13 times more likely to die from the Delta variant if they were double-vaccinated, compared to unvaccinated. The Canadian Press report can be found here.

TRUDEAU SAYS HE PLAYED NO ROLE IN DEAL WITH CHINESE GOVERNMENT PRESS THAT REPUBLISHED HIS MEMOIR: The Conservative Party is asking Canada’s federal ethics watchdog to reveal whether it scrutinized a 2016 deal where a Chinese state-owned publishing house republished Justin Trudeau’s private memoirs under the title The Legend Continues. Meanwhile, Mr. Trudeau distanced himself from the book deal and declined to explicitly say whether the ethics commissioner okayed the China book deal. Story by the Globe and Mail’s Steven Chase and Robert Fife is here.

NEW INFLATION NUMBERS SPILL INTO ELECTION CAMPAIGN: Canadian inflation surged in August at the quickest pace since 2003, jumping 4.1 per cent in August from a year earlier. The Globe and Mail’s Matt Lundy reports on the details here. Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole, who has been raising inflation concerns throughout the campaign, said in a statement that Canada “is experiencing an affordability crisis” and Liberal and NDP policies will make it worse. Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau suggested the situation is temporary and said his party is offering policies on housing and child care that will help lower costs for Canadians.

LEADERS

Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-François Blanchet campaigns in Montreal. Longueuil, Châteauguay, Saint-Bruno-de-Montarville, Varennes and Mont-Saint-Hilaire.

Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole made an announcement and held a media availability in Jonquiere, Que., and is scheduled to hold an evening event with supporters in Orford.

Green Party Leader Annamie Paul holds a press conference in Kitchener, Ont., with Mike Schreiner, the leader of the Ontario Green Party, and mainstreets in Kitchener and Toronto.

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau made an announcement and held a media availability in Halifax.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh spoke to the media in Essex, Ont., and visited supporters in London. He was scheduled to visit supporters in Niagara Centre, Hamilton and Brampton and join a Twitch stream event with YouTuber Ryan Letourneau.

OPINION

Gary Mason (The Globe and Mail) on Maxime Bernier’s disgraceful election campaign:Election campaigns are bruising, generally thankless affairs, in which the mood of the candidates is inextricably linked to the proximity of the finish line. That is, unless you have nothing to lose, then you can often enjoy the experience and get more exposure than you ever imagined – or frankly, deserved. Welcome to Mad Max Bernier’s world.”

John Ibbitson (The Globe and Mail) on why the Peoples’ Party of Canada should be represented in Parliament: “If PPC members fail to break through in Parliament, just as Mr. Bernier was unfairly denied representation in the leaders’ debates last week – they will find another way to be heard.”

Eric Reguly (The Globe and Mail) on how Norway’s election thrust climate to the political forefront and may be a taste of elections to come: The Norwegian election might be a foretaste of elections to come as the planet heats up. The election result – the swing to the left partly propelled by heightened environmental awareness – signaled climate issues are entering the political mainstream, at least in western Europe, and are less divisive than they used to be. Canada is not quite there yet, but give it time. Wealthy Norway has the luxury of knowing that throwing fortunes at reducing emissions won’t hurt the economy, as it might in some other countries. Cries of hypocrisy as the oil revenue continues to fill Norwegian state bank accounts will not disappear any time soon. But give that time, too.”

Erna Paris (Contributor to The Globe and Mail) on why federal leaders’ sycophantic acceptance of Quebec’s Bill 21 is dangerous for all of Canada: “To back such legislation is not only hypocrisy on the part of Canadian leaders, but an affront to the fundamental commitments we espouse in this country. During the debate, it was striking to note that in the same breath as the main party leaders refused to challenge Quebec’s right to discriminate, they simultaneously mouthed their support for the Canadian shibboleths of human rights and equality.”

Send along your political questions and we will look at getting answers to run in this newsletter. Please note that it is not possible to answer each one personally. Questions and answers will be edited for length and clarity.

Got a news tip that you’d like us to look into? E-mail us at tips@globeandmail.com. Need to share documents securely? Reach out via SecureDrop

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Trump's Big Lie is changing the face of American politics – CNN

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(CNN)The Big Lie is already tainting the 2022 and 2024 elections.

Relentless efforts by former President Donald Trump and his true believers in politics and the media have convinced millions of Americans that Joe Biden is a fraudulent President who seized power in a stolen election.
This deep-seated suspicion of last November’s vote, which threatens to corrode the foundation of US democracy, mirrors the message adopted by the ex-President months before he clearly lost a free and fair election to Biden.
It has immediate political implications — the lie that the last election was a fix is already shaping the terrain in which candidates, especially Republicans, are running in midterm elections in 2022. And the widespread belief that Trump was cheated out of power is building the former President a 2024 platform to mount a GOP presidential primary bid if he wishes.
Longer term, the fact that tens of millions of Americans were seduced by Trump’s lies about election fraud poses grave questions about the future of America’s democratic political architecture itself. Ultimately, if a large minority of the population no longer has faith in rule by the people for the people, how long can that system survive? And if the will of millions of people is no longer expressed through voting, what other outlets are there? Already, the January 6 insurrection has shown what happens when aggrieved groups — in this case incited by a massive lie — take matters into their own hands.
Trump’s great success in creating his own version of a new truth about the election and his still-magnetic talent for spinning myths into which his supporters can buy is revealed in a new CNN poll released Wednesday.
The survey finds that 36% of Americans don’t think Biden legitimately got sufficient votes to win last November. On the one hand, that means a handy majority does believe Biden won fair and square. On the other, however, a restive one-third minority in a nation of 330 million can be a powerful and destructive force. Among Republicans, 78% believe Biden did not win the election and 54% believe that there is solid evidence to support such a view, according to the poll, even though no evidence exists and multiple courts and states and the US Congress certified a victory that Trump’s Justice Department said was untainted by significant fraud. Among Republicans who say Trump should be the leader of the party, 88% believe Biden lost the election. And in a sign that many Americans think that the ex-President’s efforts are causing more permanent damage, 51% say it is likely that elected officials in the US will successfully overturn the results of a future election because their party did not win.
Paradoxically, Republicans are more likely to say that democracy is under attack than Democrats. That is despite the fact that any fair reading of the last few years shows that Trump has repeatedly battered the pillars of the democratic political system. The twice-impeached ex-President abused power repeatedly, politicized the Justice Department and sided with tyrants rather than democratic leaders. When it was the will of the people that he be ejected from office, he tried to stay, came close to staging a coup and trashed the election that ended his presidency.
Such is the power of Trump — and the conservative media propaganda machine that created an alternative reality for his followers — that the President is able to reinvent the truth in plain sight, and get away with it. The former President effectively writes the script.
“I am not the one trying to undermine American democracy, I’m the one trying to save it. Please remember that,” Trump said at a rally in Arizona in June that itself highlighted a sham audit orchestrated by Republicans of 2020 election votes in crucial Maricopa County that helped Biden win the state.

‘Democracy is not a football’

Most Americans don’t spend much time pondering democracy and constitutional guardrails — a subject that has become an obsession for Beltway media and lawmakers in the Trump era. The cost of health care, the pandemic, kids trying to get back to school, expiring unemployment benefits and eviction moratoriums, and a homelessness crisis highlighted by the California recall election are more likely to concern most people. But ultimately, such problems are harder to solve if the faith of the people in their political systems fails.
And the daily erosion of democratic standards — thanks to Trump’s lies and the actions of his Republican enablers on Capitol Hill — can reach critical mass over time. The experiences of other nations — in Eastern Europe, for instance — that have seen democracy tarnished is that incremental damage adds up, and it becomes obvious only at a point when it is impossible to reverse.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom, fresh off his defeat of the recall effort that critics saw as the epitome of an undemocratic exercise, reflected on how political freedoms need to be protected from the likes of Trump, who had said the California election was “rigged” before the returns had even come in. The Democratic governor reached for a message that might be the building blocks of a broader attempt by his party to push back against the extremism of some Republicans.
“Democracy is not a football. You don’t throw it around,” Newsom said Tuesday night. “It’s more like a, I don’t know, antique vase. You can drop it and smash it in a million different pieces.”
Trump is poised to reap the fruits of his own anti-democratic campaign. His lock on the party grassroots appears to give him a prohibitive advantage in the next presidential primary campaign if he decides to run. It’s easy to imagine a presidential debate when Trump forces rivals to buy into his own false conceit that the 2020 election was stolen from him. There is no political incentive for any GOP rising star to get on the wrong side of Trump. Some, like the third-ranking Republican in the House, Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, have already made the choice between the truth and their own skyrocketing careers, which can prosper in Trump’s shadow.
Republicans who have challenged the ex-President and pointed out the reality of his authoritarian impulses, however, like ex-Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona or Wyoming’s Rep. Liz Cheney, whom Stefanik ousted as conference chair, find that their political prospects darken.
The next presidential election is three years away and the political winds can change. And it’s possible that GOP voters will tire of Trump’s antics and seek a fresh face. Perhaps Trump’s increasingly extreme position on election fraud would be counterproductive in a national election — and create more momentum against him than it currently gives him in his own party.

Democracy on trial in the midterms

But there can be little doubt that the former President’s assaults on democracy are helping to keep him politically relevant, and his capacity to create a false narrative in which he won is a tangible sign of his power.
Before the next presidential election, the impact of the Big Lie is already being felt in the run-up to the congressional and gubernatorial elections next year. Many of those races will be fought under conditions set by new voting laws passed by conservative legislatures that often discriminate against minority voters and are inspired by Trump’s Big Lie. If the California recall election is any guide, Trump acolytes will go into the midterms warning that any Democratic victories, especially where mail-in voting is heavily used, will be fraudulent even though Republicans are predicted to do well.
The former President has also worked hard, using the carrot of his valuable endorsement, to ensure that GOP candidates up and down the midterm ballot buy into his face-saving and untrue narrative that he won the last election.
He has, for instance, endorsed Alabama’s Rep. Mo Brooks, who is running for Senate and was a speaker at the infamous January 6 rally in Washington that incited the US Capitol insurrection. Last week, the former President endorsed Michigan state Rep. Steve Carra, who is mounting a primary challenge to Rep. Fred Upton, one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump over the mob attack on Congress earlier this year. In another of his many endorsements countrywide, Trump this week backed Kristina Karamo, a Republican running for secretary of state in the Wolverine State, praising her as “strong on Crime, including the massive Crime of Election Fraud.” It was a move that underscored how, alongside the ideological gulfs between Republicans and Democrats, there is a new divide — between political hopefuls who support democracy and those prepared to deny it.
It is a new dimension in American politics that has shocked many people who have been involved in it for years, and it is drawing grim historical analogies.
“I think about … those democracies that were lost in the middle part, the early part of the 20th century where democracy was not adequately defended and authoritarian regimes rose,” former Obama administration Attorney General Eric Holder told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on “The Situation Room” on Tuesday.
“And it wasn’t because democracy was unpopular. You know, democracy was strong. But the reality is the defense of democracy was weak, and we cannot allow that to happen in this country.”

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Parliamentary election unlikely to change Russia's politics – CTV News

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MOSCOW —
After a few weeks of desultory campaigning but months of relentless official moves to shut down significant opposition, Russia is holding three days of voting this weekend in a parliamentary election that is unlikely to change the country’s political complexion.

There’s no expectation that United Russia, the party devoted to President Vladimir Putin, will lose its dominance of the State Duma, the elected lower house of parliament. The main questions to be answered are whether the party will retain its current two-thirds majority that allows it to amend the constitution; whether anemic turnout will dull the party’s prestige; and whether imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s Smart Voting initiative proves to be a viable strategy against it.

“There is very little intrigue in these elections … and in fact they will not leave a special trace in political history,” Andrei Kolesnikov, an analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center, told The Associated Press.

Putin, however, on Thursday urged Russians to vote, saying in a video message that “election of (the Duma’s) new composition is undoubtedly the most important event in the life of our society and country.”

With 14 parties fielding candidates for half of the Duma’s 450 seats that are chosen by party list, the election has a veneer of being genuinely competitive. But the three parties aside from United Russia that are expected to clear the 5% support necessary to get a seat rarely challenge the Kremlin.

The Kremlin wants control over the new parliament, which will still be in place in 2024, when Putin’s current term expires and he must decide on running for reelection or choosing some other strategy to stay in power.

The other half of the seats are chosen in individual constituencies, where independent candidates or those from small parties such as the liberal Yabloko may have stronger chances. These seats are also where the Navalny team’s Smart Voting strategy could make inroads.

The program sidesteps ideology in order to undermine United Russia, simply advising voters which candidate other than the ruling party’s is the strongest in a single-mandate race.

It’s essentially a defensive strategy.

“Voting to harm United Russia is not a meaningful goal, not a goal to choose another candidate whom you ideologically support,” Kolesnikov said. But it showed potency in its inaugural use in 2018 when opposition candidates won 20 of 45 seats in the Moscow city council, and a year later when United Russia lost its majorities in the councils of three large cities.

However, it’s unclear how widely it will be used this year after authorities blocked access to its website. The service remains available through apps, but Russia has threatened fines against Apple and Google to remove the apps from their online stores. The Foreign Ministry last week summoned U.S. Ambassador John Sullivan to protest election interference by American “digital giants.”

Blocking the website was the latest move to neutralize the Navalny operation, which was Russia’s most visible and determined opposition organization, capable of calling sizable protests throughout the country.

Navalny himself was jailed in January upon returning to Russia from Germany where he had been recuperating from nerve-agent poisoning; he was subsequently sentenced to 2 1/2 years in prison. A court later outlawed Navalny’s Foundation for Fighting Corruption and a network of his regional offices as extremist organizations, a verdict that barred people associated with the groups from seeking public office and exposed them to lengthy prison terms.

Russian authorities also blocked some 50 websites run by his team or supporters for allegedly disseminating extremist propaganda.

In August, Russia added the independent vote-monitoring group Golos to its list of foreign agents, a move that does not block its work but strongly suggests it should be regarded with suspicion.

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, whose election-monitoring missions are widely regarded as authoritative, will not send observers for the parliament vote, saying that Russia imposed excessive restrictions.

In addition to the Duma election, nine Russian regions will be choosing governors, 39 regions will be choosing legislatures and voters in 11 cities will be choosing city councils.

The Elections Commission ordered voting expanded to three days, concluding on Sunday, to reduce crowding at the polls amid the coronavirus pandemic. Critics say the decision raises the chance of ballot manipulation. Commission head Ella Pamfilova rejects the accusation, saying there will be “total video surveillance” of polling places and that ballots will be in secure containers.

Other ethical concerns also hover over the election. According to the state-funded pollster VTsIOM, more than one in 10 workers say they have been given directives by their bosses to vote. In St. Petersburg, a candidate from the Yabloko party named Boris Vishnevsky, who is running simultaneously for the Duma and a regional legislature, discovered that there are two other men using that name opposing him in each race — one of whom is a member of United Russia, according to the newspaper Novaya Gazeta.

Although polls indicate that general approval for United Russia is low, the party is expected to ride to an overwhelming first place in the new parliament. The independent Center for Current Politics predicts it will score 299-306 seats — down from the 343 it currently holds but within the range of the 303 seats needed to change the constitution.

The center’s prognosis suggests that most of the seats lost by United Russia would be picked up by the Communist Party, the second-largest parliamentary faction. But the party largely conforms to the Kremlin line, as do the two other parties likely to get double-digit seats.

“The Communists themselves are not very dangerous,” said commentator Sergei Parkhomenko on Ekho Moskvy radio. The party is “a tool for imitating an opposition movement.”

Allegations of widespread voting fraud sparked large protests in Moscow and St. Petersburg after the 2011 Duma elections. But with opposition groups neutered, the prospect of unrest this time appears remote.

“Protests will not take place where we expect them, not at the time when we expect them and not from those from whom we expect them,” Parkhomenko said.

——

Olga Tregubova in Moscow contributed.

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