What the jet fuel crisis means for your summer travel plans   | Canada.Com

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Canadians booking summer travel may find the flight they want is more expensive, less convenient or no longer available at all. Higher fuel costs are reshaping airline schedules and fares after escalating conflict between Iran and the United States restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy corridors. 

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WestJet has reduced capacity by approximately three per cent in May and five and a half per cent in June. Air Transat has cut planned capacity by six per cent between May and October, while Air Canada recently announced it will end four seasonal routes earlier than planned, adding to several route suspensions announced last month. 

For travellers, the airline response raises questions about whether flights will continue to rise, which itineraries are most vulnerable to disruption and what happens if air schedules shift after hotels, cruises or tours have already been booked. We asked industry experts what Canadians need to know before travelling this summer. 

Should I book air travel at all right now? 

Ian Elliott, senior vice president of commercial and engagement at TravelOnly, a family-owned travel agency based in Brantford, Ont., says the current route and capacity changes are unlikely to derail most travellers’ plans entirely. “This is really only impacting a small portion of the globe,” he says. 

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Elliott adds that airlines are expected to protect their key long-haul routes, which means most major international flights are safe. “Airlines are going to try to preserve their transatlantic routes, because those are the most profitable ones,” he says. He notes that airlines are more likely to trim smaller regional routes that generate less revenue. 

“If something happens, it’s probably going to be a schedule change or a delay. It’s not going to be that your whole trip is cancelled,” he says.

Should I book now before prices rise? 

Travellers who already know where and when they want to go may want to consider booking sooner rather than later. While no one can predict exactly how pricing will evolve, several industry insiders say fares are already climbing and likely won’t get cheaper in the near term. 

“What we are telling people is book now versus later, because every day things may happen that might increase the price further,” says Elliott. 

John Gradek, a faculty lecturer in aviation management at McGill University, says travellers who wait too long to book could face noticeably steeper fares. “If you haven’t bought your ticket yet, be prepared for sticker shock,” he warns. 

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How do I know if my itinerary is risky?

Complex itineraries are generally harder to salvage when schedules change, especially when they involve multiple connections, tight layovers, separate tickets or several airlines. 

Route choice matters, too. Newer routes could be among the first airlines reconsider this summer, since a season or two is often required to determine whether a new service is profitable. In a higher-cost environment, Gradek says carriers may have less patience for routes that have not yet proven their value. Flights on heavily served routes could also be reduced. “Flights that are at risk are routes that have quite a few frequencies in a day,” Gradek says. “Carriers will be looking at consolidating. Instead of going five times a day, they’ll go four times.” 

Gradek notes that fuel supply pressures are heavily impacting Southeast Asia, including Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines, with Australia also feeling the strain. “And that’s starting to move into western Europe,” he adds. 

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That does not mean travellers need to avoid those regions altogether, but they should pay closer attention to connection times and airline options, especially on trips with multiple legs.

What insurance loopholes should I watch for? 

One insurance mistake travellers should avoid is assuming cancellation and interruption coverage will automatically apply. Martin Firestone, president of Toronto-based insurance broker Travel Secure Inc., says that in recent weeks, most insurers have begun treating the jet fuel shortage as a “known cause.” That means new policies generally won’t cover cancellations tied directly to the fuel shortage. 

“It would be like if they knew a hurricane was coming to an area, they would make it a known cause,” Firestone says. 

The airfare itself may not even be the greatest financial risk. If an airline cancels a flight, travellers may be refunded, rebooked or rescheduled. The real exposure is everything attached to the trip: the cruise they miss, the non-refundable hotel room, the private tours and prepaid experiences they can no longer reach, according to Firestone. 

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Still, Firestone says insurance remains worth considering. “Insurance is off the table for jet fuel, but it’s not for the million and one other reasons your trip could go wrong,” he says. 

What happens if my flight is cancelled?

If your airline drops a route after you’ve booked, you likely won’t be left stranded, but your options may become less convenient. Depending on the airline and fare type, that could mean longer layovers, revised departure times or a different route. 

“When an airline changes or cancels a route, passengers are often presented with alternative flight options,” says Jane Clementino, senior vice president and general manager, Canada, TravelSavers. “In some cases, travellers may be automatically rebooked, offered travel credits or be eligible for a refund.” 

How do I reduce my risk of travel headaches? 

The more straightforward the itinerary, the less likely it is to unravel if airline schedules change. Direct flights, longer connection windows and simpler routing all reduce the number of places where a trip can go sideways. 

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“Book a direct flight if you can,” says Elliott. 

For Europe in particular, Elliott says travellers should also think through their backup options before booking, especially if their trip includes regional flights. Larger airlines with major European networks may cost more, he adds, but they can also provide more opportunities for travellers to be rebooked quickly if their flight is cancelled. 

“I wouldn’t pick some of these smaller airlines that are flying to Europe on an infrequent basis,” he says. 

Geography matters, too. Gradek says Portugal, Central America and the Caribbean are in better shape from a fuel-availability standpoint than some other parts of the world. Canada does not have a supply problem, he says, though higher costs could still affect fares and demand. 

Karen Hardie, general manager of Canada for Virtuoso, says travellers are most vulnerable when their itineraries are too rigid. “The riskiest itinerary is ultimately the one that leaves no room for flexibility,” she says. 

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That means not cutting things too close. “If you’re booking a flight to Rome and you’re catching a cruise the next day, I think it’s a mistake at this point,” says Firestone. “You don’t know if you’re going to get an email that says your flight has been cancelled and rescheduled to the next day.” 

For travellers who want a stronger backup plan, Clementino says it may be worth widening the options. “A Plan C could even involve reconsidering the destination itself, such as opting for a domestic getaway this year,” she says. 

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