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Whatever happened in 2019 and 2021, China has succeeded in starting a political frenzy

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“These are serious allegations that need to be treated seriously,” NDP House leader Peter Julian said during an appearance on CBC’s Power & Politics on Monday.

Given that Julian said so while relaying his party’s call for a public inquiry into allegations of Chinese foreign interference in Canadian elections, it seems fair to assume he doesn’t see Parliament as a place where serious allegations can be handled seriously.

And maybe he’s right about that — even if it’s a particularly disappointing admission in the midst of what is supposed to be a discussion about maintaining public trust in Canada’s democratic institutions.

There is certainly a need for seriousness at this moment. Because whatever China tried to do, it has succeeded in triggering a political and media feeding frenzy that threatens to do some real damage to Canadian democracy, regardless of what the truth might be.

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It’s important to note that an independent panel of five senior public servants, working with Canada’s national security agencies, did not find interference that affected Canada’s ability to hold free and fair elections in 2019 and 2021.

No serious voice is saying that those elections were decisively affected by foreign malfeasance. Asked by reporters on Wednesday whether he accepted the results of the last federal election, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said he did.

The current furor is instead based on two separate, but related, questions. To what extent was China able to covertly interfere in the Canadian democratic process before and during the 2019 and 2021 elections? And did the Trudeau government fail to respond appropriately to any attempts to interfere?

The Conservatives cry ‘cover-up’

It’s the second question, of course, that generates the most excitement. The Conservatives have gone so far as to allege a “cover-up.” But it remains unclear — sometimes maddeningly so — whether such a scandal is actually present here.

A report authored by a former senior public servant — commissioned by the Trudeau government late last year and released yesterday — states plainly that “CSIS is concerned about foreign interference, including by the Communist Party of China” and “CSIS expressed concerns that China notably tried to target elected officials to promote their national interests and encouraged individuals to act as proxies on their behalf.” (The Conservatives preemptively decided that the author, who was CEO of the Pierre Elliott Trudeau Foundation after leaving the public service, lacks credibility.)

That report adds to the findings released by a committee of parliamentarians in early 2020.

But government officials simply have not accounted fully for the claims outlined in a recent series of media reports. The allegations and accounts that have been leaked to reporters are certainly part of some kind of story, but the rest of story is still unknown.

The prime minister and his government have explicitly denied two reported claims: that the prime minister was briefed about allegations that China provided funding to candidates, and that CSIS urged the Prime Minister’s Office to rescind a Liberal candidate’s nomination. They also have alluded broadly to other unspecified “inaccuracies” in the reports.

 

Trudeau’s national security adviser attends hearing on election interference

Jody Thomas says China poses the greatest threat of interference in Canadian elections.

Jody Thomas, a public servant who acts as national security adviser to the prime minister, was similarly cryptic. In her opening statement Wednesday to a committee of MPs studying foreign election inference, she said that “individual reports, when taken out of context, may be incomplete and misrepresentative of the full story.” When discussing interference, she seemed to stress the word “attempts,” as if to imply that what is tried is not always successful.

When asked about one specific allegation, Thomas said that “the intelligence that backs it up is more complex than is probably evident in the single clip or piece of that report that’s been revealed in the media.”

She also noted that information about criminal actions can be referred to the RCMP. Another government official then confirmed that the RCMP is not actively investigating any allegations related to the last election.

But such comments, however interesting, are not going to be nearly enough to assuage concerns about China’s actions or the federal government’s response.

 

‘Multiple processes’ are looking into foreign election interference: Trudeau

 

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says security agencies are using various tools to investigate alleged foreign election interference.

This government is not particularly fond of (or good at) explaining itself in a straightforward manner, even when it doesn’t seem to have anything to hide. And both government and security officials are also quick to say that they are severely limited in what they can say when it comes to classified intelligence.

But what’s needed in this situation — and in all cases where the credibility of Canadian democracy is being questioned — is something like radical transparency. For the sake of either accountability or reassurance — or both — there needs to be a serious attempt to account for the claims that have been made and repeated. And that need will only increase if there are more leaks and anonymous allegations.

Do we need a public inquiry?

The swift demands for a public inquiry likely owe something to the recent experience of Justice Paul Rouleau’s investigation into the federal government’s use of the Emergencies Act. Those hearings broke through the bog standard opacity of government and offered real transparency — so much so that it became tempting to wish everything could be subject to such sober and serious examination.

A public inquiry could explore the full gamut of threats of foreign election manipulation by looking at China as well as a half-dozen other bad actors. But existing institutions — like the commissioner of elections (who pursues violations of the Elections Act), the RCMP, the National Security and Intelligence Review Agency and the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians (NSICOP) — should be up to the task of getting at the specific questions feeding the current frenzy.

NSICOP, a special committee that includes both MPs and senators, was created by the Trudeau government six years ago to allow parliamentarians to review classified information and report publicly on their findings. It was the committee that produced that 2020 report on foreign interference — a report that had the misfortune of being released on March 12 of that year, just days before the world crashed to a halt.

NSICOP could be the right venue for a deep investigation of what China did or didn’t do in the last two elections.

It’s fair to say that normal House of Commons committees have shown themselves lately to be incapable of seriousness. But there is also hope for this week’s hearings. On Thursday, the procedure and House affairs committee is set to hear from another eight witnesses, including CSIS director David Vigneault.

Substantive answers would go a long way toward demonstrating that Canada’s political system is capable of dealing seriously with a threat that ultimately aims to undermine democracy itself.

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Budget 2024 failed to spark ‘political reboot’ for Liberals, polling suggests – Global News

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The 2024 federal budget failed to spark a much-needed rebound in the polls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s trailing Liberal party, according to new Ipsos polling released Tuesday.

Canadian reaction to the Liberal government’s latest spending plans shows an historic challenge ahead of the governing party as it tries to keep the reins of government out of the Conservative party’s hands in the next election, according to one pollster.

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“If the purpose of the budget was to get a political reboot going, it didn’t seem to happen,” says Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Global Public Affairs.

A symbolic ‘shrug’ for Budget 2024

The 2024 federal budget tabled last week included billions of dollars in new spending aimed at improving “generational fairness” and rapidly filling in Canada’s housing supply gap.

Ipsos polling conducted exclusively for Global News shows voters’ reactions to the 2024 federal budget mostly ranged from lacklustre to largely negative.

After stripping out those who said they “don’t know” how they feel about the federal budget (28 per cent), only 17 per cent of Canadians surveyed about the spending plan in the two days after its release said they’d give it “two thumbs up.” Some 40 per cent, meanwhile, said they’d give it “two thumbs down” and the remainder (43 per cent) gave a symbolic “shrug” to Budget 2024.


Ipsos polling shows few Canadians give Budget 2024 “two thumbs up.”


Ipsos / Global News

“Thumbs down” reactions rose to 63 per cent among Alberta respondents and 55 per cent among those in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Some 10 per cent of respondents said the budget would personally help them, while 37 per cent said it would hurt, after again stripping out those who said they didn’t know what the impact would be.

Asked about how they’d vote if a federal election were held today, 43 per cent of respondents said they’d pick the Conservatives, while 24 per cent said they’d vote Liberal, followed by 19 per cent who’d lean NDP.


Click to play video: '3 key takeaways from the 2024 federal budget'

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3 key takeaways from the 2024 federal budget


The Conservative lead is up one point from a month earlier, Bricker notes, suggesting that Budget 2024 failed to stem the bleeding for the incumbent Liberals.


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Only eight per cent of respondents to the Ipsos poll said the budget made them more likely to vote Liberal in the upcoming election, while roughly a third (34 per cent) said it made them less likely.

“The initial impressions of Canadians are that it hasn’t made much of a difference,” Bricker says.

Sentiment towards the Liberals remains slightly higher among generation Z and millennial voters — the demographics who appeared to be the focus of Budget 2024 — but Bricker says opinions remain “overwhelmingly negative” across generational lines.

Heading into the 2024 budget, the Liberals were under pressure to improve affordability in Canada amid a rising cost of living and an inaccessible housing market, Ipsos polling conducted last month showed.

The spending plan included items to remove junk fees from banking services and concert tickets, as well as some items aimed at making it easier for first-time homebuyers to break into the housing market. It also included a proposed change to how some capital gains are taxed, which the Liberals have claimed would target the wealthiest Canadians.

Paul Kershaw, founder of Generation Squeeze, told Global News after the federal budget’s release that while he was encouraged by acknowledgements about the economic unfairness facing younger demographics, there is no quick fix for the affordability crisis in the housing market.


Click to play video: 'Canada’s doctors say capital gains tax changes could impact care'

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Canada’s doctors say capital gains tax changes could impact care


A steep hill for Liberals to climb

Trudeau, his cabinet ministers and Liberal MPs have hit the road both before and after the budget’s release to promote line items in the spending plan.

Bricker says this is the typical post-budget playbook, but so far it looks like there’s nothing that “really caught on with Canadians” in the early days after the release of the spending plans. The Liberals have a chance to make something happen on the road, he says, but it’s “not looking great.”

“Maybe over the course of the next year, they’ll be able to demonstrate that they’ve actually changed something,” he says.

Bricker notes, however, that public opinion has changed little in federal politics over the past year.

The next federal election is set for October 2025 at the latest, but could be called earlier if the Liberals fail a confidence vote or bring down the government themselves.

But a vote today would see the Liberals likely lose to a “very, very large majority from the Conservative party,” Bricker says.


Click to play video: '‘$50B orgy of spending’: Poilievre mocks Trudeau for latest federal budget'

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‘$50B orgy of spending’: Poilievre mocks Trudeau for latest federal budget


“What we’re seeing is, if things continue on as they’ve been continuing for the space of the last year, that they will end up in a situation where, almost an historic low in terms of the number of seats,” he says.

The Conservatives are leading in every region in the country, except for Quebec, where the Bloc Quebecois holds the pole position, according to the Ipsos polling.

The Liberals are meanwhile facing “a solid wall of public disapproval,” Bricker says. Some 32 per cent of voters said they would never consider voting Liberal in the next election, higher than the 27 per cent who said the same about the Conservatives, according to Ipsos.

Typically, Bricker says an incumbent party can hold onto a lead in some demographic, age group or region and build out a strategy for re-election from there.

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But this Liberal party lacks any foothold in the electorate, making prospects look grim in the next federal election; it’s so bleak that he even invokes the Progressive Conservative party’s historic rout in the 1993 vote.

“The hill they have to climb is incredibly hard,” Bricker says.

“I haven’t seen a hill this high to climb in federal politics since Brian Mulroney was faced with a very similar situation back in 1991 and ’92. And we all know what happened with that.”

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between 17 and 18, April 2024, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,000 Canadians aged 18-plus was interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians aged 18-plus been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.


Click to play video: '‘It’s absolutely right’: Freeland addresses capital gains tax adjustment concerns'

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‘It’s absolutely right’: Freeland addresses capital gains tax adjustment concerns


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Vaughn Palmer: Brad West dips his toes into B.C. politics, but not ready to dive in – Vancouver Sun

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Opinion: Brad West been one of the sharpest critics of decriminalization

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VICTORIA — Port Coquitlam Mayor Brad West fired off a letter to Premier David Eby last week about Allan Schoenborn, the child killer who changed his name in a bid for anonymity.

“It is completely beyond the pale that individuals like Schoenborn have the ability to legally change their name in an attempt to disassociate themselves from their horrific crimes and to evade the public,” wrote West.

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The Alberta government has legislated against dangerous, long-term and high risk offenders who seek to change their names to escape public scrutiny.

“I urge your government to pass similar legislation as a high priority to ensure the safety of British Columbians,” West wrote the premier.

The B.C. Review Board has granted Schoenborn overnight, unescorted leave for up to 28 days, and he spent some of that time in Port Coquitlam, according to West.

This despite the board being notified that “in the last two years there have been 15 reported incidents where Schoenborn demonstrated aggressive behaviour.”

“It is absolutely unacceptable that an individual who has committed such heinous crimes, and continues to demonstrate this type of behaviour, is able to roam the community unescorted.”

Understandably, those details alarmed PoCo residents.

But the letter is also an example of the outspoken mayor’s penchant for to-the-point pronouncements on provincewide concerns.

He’s been one of the sharpest critics of decriminalization.

His most recent blast followed the news that the New Democrats were appointing a task force to advise on ways to curb the use of illicit drugs and the spread of weapons in provincial hospitals.

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“Where the hell is the common sense here?” West told Mike Smyth on CKNW recently. “This has just gone way too far. And to have a task force to figure out what to do — it’s obvious what we need to do.

“In a hospital, there’s no weapons and you can’t smoke crack or fentanyl or any other drugs. There you go. Just saved God knows how much money and probably at least six months of dithering.”

He had a pithy comment on the government’s excessive reliance on outside consultants like MNP to process grants for clean energy and other programs.

“If ever there was a place to find savings that could be redirected to actually delivering core public services, it is government contracts to consultants like MNP,” wrote West.

He’s also broken with the Eby government on the carbon tax.

“The NDP once opposed the carbon tax because, by its very design, it is punishing to working people,” wrote West in a social media posting.

“The whole point of the tax is to make gas MORE expensive so people don’t use it. But instead of being honest about that, advocates rely on flimsy rebate BS. It is hard to find someone who thinks they are getting more dollars back in rebates than they are paying in carbon tax on gas, home heat, etc.”

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West has a history with the NDP. He was a political staffer and campaign worker with Mike Farnworth, the longtime NDP MLA for Port Coquitlam and now minister of public safety.

When West showed up at the legislature recently, Farnworth introduced him to the house as “the best mayor in Canada” and endorsed him as his successor: “I hope at some time he follows in my footsteps and takes over when I decide to retire — which is not just yet,” added Farnworth who is running this year for what would be his eighth term.

Other political players have their eye on West as a future prospect as well.

Several parties have invited him to run in the next federal election. He turned them all down.

Lately there has also been an effort to recruit him to lead a unified Opposition party against Premier David Eby in this year’s provincial election.

I gather the advocates have some opinion polling to back them up and a scenario that would see B.C. United and the Conservatives make way (!) for a party to be named later.

Such flights of fancy are commonplace in B.C. when the NDP is poised to win against a divided Opposition.

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By going after West, the advocates pay a compliment to his record as mayor (low property taxes and a fix-every-pothole work ethic) and his populist stands on public safety, carbon taxation and other provincial issues.

The outreach to a small city mayor who has never run provincially also says something about the perceived weaknesses of the alternatives to Eby.

“It is humbling,” West said Monday when I asked his reaction to the overtures.

But he is a young father with two boys, aged three and seven. The mayor was 10 when he lost his own dad and he believes that if he sought provincial political leadership now, “I would not be the type of dad I want to be.”

When West ran for re-election — unopposed — in 2022, he promised to serve out the full four years as mayor.

He is poised to keep his word, confident that if the overtures to run provincially are serious, they will still be there when his term is up.

vpalmer@postmedia.com

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LIVE Q&A WITH B.C. PREMIER DAVID EBY: Join us April 23 at 3:30 p.m. when we will sit down with B.C. Premier David Eby for a special edition of Conversations Live. The premier will answer our questions — and yours — about a range of topics, including housing, drug decriminalization, transportation, the economy, crime and carbon taxes. Click HERE to get a link to the livestream emailed to your inbox.

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Fareed’s take: There’s been an unprecedented wave of migration to the West – CNN

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Fareed’s take: There’s been an unprecedented wave of migration to the West

On GPS with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria, he shares his take on how the 2024 election will be defined by abortion and immigration.


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