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What's Happening in the World Economy: Virus Fears Return – Bloomberg

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Hello. Today we look at how coronavirus fears are rising again after the discovery of a new variant, the state of China’s economy and concerns about the outlook for trade.

B.1.1.529

Inflation, central bank tapering, supply chain snarls, a looming fiscal cliff — they all dropped a notch on the global economy’s list of concerns Friday as the Coronavirus shot back to the top.

A new variant called B.1.1.529 has been identified in South Africa and has already spread as far as Hong Kong, where it infected two travelers in hotel quarantine. See here for more details.

Stocks, Treasury yields and oil sank while the yen jumped — all hallmarks of investors bracing for uncertain economic times. 

“What was expected to be another quiet day for markets, as U.S. activity is muted, is now likely to be rife with anxiety over the new variant and its implications for economic activity going forward,” Siobhan Redford,  a Johannesburg-based analyst at FirstRand Bank, told clients in a report.

For South Africa’s economy, the news is a particular body blow especially for its already shaky tourism sector, which would have been eager to welcome foreigners chasing winter sun. The European Union, U.K. and Singapore have already curbed travel.

More broadly, there will be fears the new strain could fuel outbreaks in more countries, stretching health systems, potentially evading vaccines and complicating efforts to reopen economies and borders. The concern alone could dampen the confidence of consumers and companies, which had been showing signs of picking up.

Money markets are offloading bets on central bank interest-rate hikes in a hurry, as inflation fears give way to concerns that the variant may spread globally.

If contained, the new as-yet unnamed strain may prove to be just a scare for markets. The coming days and decisions from the World Health Organization will be closely watched for any broader spread.

At a minimum, however, it’s yet another reminder that Covid-19 is going to remain the wild card for the global economy and will continue to shape the recovery and what policy makers do next.

“Each new variant entails the risk of the vaccination progress being undone,” said Ulrich Leuchtmann,  head of currency strategy at Commerzbank. “The thoughts of a world post-Covid suddenly become all confused.”

Malcolm Scott and Simon Kennedy

The Economic Scene

Ticking Over

China’s economy slowly expanding for 6th straight month

Source: Bloomberg Economics

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China’s economy continued to slow in November with car and homes sales dropping again as the housing market crisis dragged on. 

That’s the outlook from Bloomberg’s aggregate index of eight early indicators for this month. While the overall number stayed unchanged, under the surface there was a further deterioration in some of the real-time economic data.

Today’s Must Reads

  • Thanksgiving binge | E-commerce spending by U.S. consumers on Thanksgiving Day will probably climb to a record, even though sales may not be as strong as initially expected.
  • Supply chain worries | There’s limited evidence from U.S. companies that any major shift in inflation expectations is yet underway despite what economists and President Joe Biden are saying. 
  • Spending surge | Australian retailers recorded their best month of sales in nearly a year as consumers splashed out on everything from dining out to clothing, taking advantage of the easing of lockdowns.
  • European stimulus | The future of European Central Bank stimulus is becoming clearer before December’s crunch meeting, with its pandemic bond-buying tool on track to be wound down but stay available
  • Japan stimulus | Prime Minister Fumio Kishida delivered his first extra budget, funding Japan’s biggest-ever fiscal package, as he tries to secure an economic recovery before next year’s elections. 
  • El Salvador crypto | Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said the country’s decision to adopt Bitcoin as its currency was concerning because consumers probably will be caught out by its volatility.

Need-to-Know Research

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“Faintly in the distance: the contours of a big export slump are becoming visible.”

That’s the ominous warning from HSBC’s co-head of Asian economic research Frederic Neumann in a research note. He notes that export volumes have contracted in recent months and new export orders are declining. And that’s set to continue as the shift away from goods demand towards services will knock down shipments from Asia.

“After powering through the pandemic, a trade hangover now looms,” he says.

On #EconTwitter

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    Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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    OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

    Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

    Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

    Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

    Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

    Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

    Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

    According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

    That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

    People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

    That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

    Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

    That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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    Economy

    Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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    The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

    The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

    CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

    This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

    While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

    Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

    The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

    Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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    Economy

    Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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    As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

    Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

    A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

    More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

    Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

    “It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

    “It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

    American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

    It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

    “A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

    “It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

    A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

    Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

    “Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

    Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

    With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

    “With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

    “By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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