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Will rate hikes dampen Canada's already lacklustre business investment? – Financial Post

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Slow and clear transition to higher interest rates could avoid a negative shock

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With interest rates set to rise, perhaps as soon as March, it’s fair to ask what that could mean for Canada’s lacklustre commitment to business investment, now that loans are about to become more expensive.

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The Bank of Canada held the overnight interest rate at the lower bound of a quarter per cent in its decision on Wednesday, but telegraphed an end to its commitment to low policy rates until the middle quarters of 2022.

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Company spending on machinery, software and non-residential property, like factories, was less than 10 per cent of Canada’s $2-trillion gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter, down from 13 per cent in 2014, when oil prices collapsed, a shock from which the oilpatch still hasn’t recovered.

The pandemic hasn’t helped, as business investment has continued to shrink amid all the uncertainty created by the global recession that followed COVID lockdowns in 2020, and the worryingly fast inflation that has come with the recovery.

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So as central banks in Canada, the United States, and elsewhere move to tame price pressures by raising borrowing costs, there’s a risk that higher interest rates could dampen investment intentions. But economists said that Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem probably can avoid a negative shock to business sentiment by communicating clearly and ratcheting up borrowing costs slowly.

“Business investment is going to recover somewhat and that’s not really a brave call,” Pedro Antunes, chief economist at the Conference Board of Canada, said in an interview. “It’s just that we’re at such low levels, it’s bound to recover.”

Business investment is going to recover somewhat and that’s not really a brave call

Pedro Antunes

Until the first quarter of 2014, business investment in the U.S. and Canada was roughly the same in terms of its share of GDP. Since then, the story has been dramatically different. The capital expenditure of U.S. companies was nearly 15 per cent of economic output in the third quarter last year, suggesting the U.S. economy has become more competitive during the pandemic.

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A lack of investment, historically, has translated into slower labour productivity growth, with Canada posting annual gains of one per cent on average from 2000 to 2019, whereas the U.S. saw growth of 1.7 per cent.

Even if Macklem opts to tap the brakes, a series of interest-rate increases probably wouldn’t discourage businesses, given they are sitting on mountains of cash, said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.

Firms have accumulated more than $130 billion in excess cash since the start of the pandemic, and are likely holding off spending it until executives have a clearer vision of the road ahead. A straightforward message from the central bank about how it intends to confront inflation could boost confidence over the near term, Tal said.

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“It’s really the message from the Bank of Canada that they are not behind the curve (which) can help businesses down the road by improving confidence,” he said. “If you are a CEO, you’re taking a very conservative approach towards spending money in this environment because you don’t know where we will be six months from now.”

The central bank is confident firms will spend on operational upgrades once pandemic-related weaknesses subside, it indicated in its Monetary Policy report published on Jan. 26.

Tiff Macklem, governor of the Bank of Canada.
Tiff Macklem, governor of the Bank of Canada. Photo by David Kawai/Bloomberg

“Outside the oil and gas sector, firms are expected to increase their investment in the face of growing domestic and foreign demand, improved business confidence, limited production capacity and the gradual easing of supply constraints,” policy-makers said in the report.

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The past year has been more chaotic than clear for executives. Companies have had to grapple with a deadly virus, soaring inflation, and supply-chain bottlenecks. Macklem and other central bankers initially said the burst of inflation that came with the recovery would be temporary, and then relented as price pressures continued to build. Canada’s consumer price index surged 4.8 per cent in December from a year earlier, the biggest increase in more than 30 years.

On top of that, immigration stalled because of travel restrictions, exacerbating a labour shortage that produced nearly 900,000 vacancies in 2021 even as overall employment returned to pre-pandemic levels in the fall. There’s hope on the horizon with the Omicron wave seeming to have peaked in some parts of the country, but anxiety still abounds among employers, said Antunes.

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Broad-based investment intentions signalled in the latest Business Outlook Survey suggest the tides could change coming out of the pandemic, especially as firms look to rebuild inventories eaten up by hot demand and supply-chain clogs.

  1. Canada added 886,000 positions in 2021, a record and a faster return to normal than in the United States.

    Canada’s U.S.-beating jobs recovery might not be as great as it looks

  2. 'Without immigration, we would be going backwards,' says CIBC World Markets' Benjamin Tal.

    Immigration surge could slow Bank of Canada rate hikes

  3. Tiff Macklem, governor of the Bank of Canada, during a news conference in Ottawa on Dec. 15, 2021.

    Debt-strapped Canadians brace for risky rate-hike cycle

  4. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem.

    Bank of Canada holds interest rate at 0.25%

It’s also possible that investment isn’t as sluggish as headline numbers suggest.

COVID-19 has quickened the pace of technology adoption, especially among professional service industries, which tend to deploy less capital per worker. Some of those positives might not be fully captured in data, especially among technology companies, which focus their business investment on people and research and development, said Martin Toner, director of institutional research at ATB Capital Markets Inc.

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“That’s where the vast majority of capital being raised by startups goes. It mostly goes into people and research because this is all intellectual property,” Toner said.

The state of the labour market could be giving businesses another reason to invest. All those unfilled positions could put upward pressure on wages, lowering the trade-off between buying productivity-enhancing equipment and hiring more workers.

“Corporations will not sit and do nothing,” said Tal. “Now labour is expensive, unavailable. People will switch to investing in capital.”

• Email: bbharti@postmedia.com | Twitter:

Listen to Down to Business for in-depth discussions and insights into the latest in Canadian business, available wherever you get your podcasts . Check out the latest episode below:

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BWXT announces $80M investment for plant in Cambridge – CityNews Kitchener

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BWX Technologies (BWXT) in Cambridge is investing $80-million to expand their nuclear manufacturing plant in Cambridge.

Minister of Energy, Todd Smith, was in the city on Friday to join the company in the announcement.

The investment will create over 200 new skilled and unionized jobs. This is part of the province’s plan to expand affordable and clean nuclear energy to power the economy.

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“With shovels in the ground today on new nuclear generation, including the first small modular reactor in the G7, I’m so pleased to see global nuclear manufacturers like BWXT expanding their operations in Cambridge and hiring more Ontario workers,” Smith said. “The benefits of Ontario’s nuclear industry reaches far beyond the stations at Darlington, Pickering and Bruce, and this $80 million investment shows how all communities can help meet Ontario’s growing demand for clean energy, while also securing local investments and creating even more good-paying jobs.”

The added jobs will support BWXT’s existing operations across the province as well as help the sector’s ongoing operations of existing nuclear stations at Darlington, Bruce and Pickering.

“Our expansion comes at a time when we’re supporting our customers in the successful execution of some of the largest clean nuclear energy projects in the world,” John MacQuarrie, President of Commercial Operations at BWXT, said.

“At the same time, the global nuclear industry is increasingly being called upon to mitigate the impacts of climate change and increase energy security and independence. By investing significantly in our Cambridge manufacturing facility, BWXT is further positioning our business to serve our customers to produce more safe, clean and reliable electricity in Canada and abroad.”

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AI investments will help chip sector to recover: Analyst – Yahoo Finance

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The semiconductor sector is undergoing a correction as interest rate cut expectations dwindle, prompting concerns about the impact on these high-growth, technology-driven stocks. Wedbush Enterprise Hardware Analyst Matt Bryson joins Yahoo Finance to discuss the dynamics shaping the chip industry.

Bryson acknowledges that the rise of generative AI has been a significant driving force behind the recent success of chip stocks. While he believes that AI is shifting “the way technology works,” he notes it will take time. Due to this, Bryson highlights that “significant investment” will continue to occur in the chip market, fueled by the growth of generative AI applications.

However, Bryson cautions that as interest rates remain elevated, it could “weigh on consumer spending.” Nevertheless, he expresses confidence that the AI revolution “changing the landscape for tech” will likely insulate the sector from the effect of high interest rates, as investors are unwilling to miss out on the “next technology” breakthrough.

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For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance.

This post was written by Angel Smith

Video Transcript

BRAD SMITH: As rate cut bets shift, so have moves in one sector, in particular. Shares of AMD and Intel, both down over 15% in the last 30 days. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, also known as Sox, dropping over 10% from recent highs, despite a higher rate environment.

Our next guest is still bullish on the sector. Matt Bryson, Wedbush Enterprise Hardware analyst, joins us now. Matt, thanks so much for taking the time here. Walk us through your thesis here, especially, given some of the pullback that we’ve seen recently.

MATT BRYSON: So I think what we’ve seen over the last year or so is that the growth of generative AI has fueled the chip stocks. And the expectation that AI is going to shift everything in the way that technology works.

And I think that at the end of the day, that that thesis will prove out. I think the question is really timing. But the investments that we’ve seen that have lifted NVIDIA, that have lifted AMD, that have lifted the chip stock and sector, in general, the large cloud service providers, building out data centers. I don’t think anything has changed there in the near term.

So when I speak to OEMs, who are making AI servers, when I speak to cloud service providers, there is still significant investment going on in that space. That investment is slated to continue certainly into 2025. And I think, as long as there is this substantial investment, that we will see chip names report strong numbers and guide for strong growth.

SEANA SMITH: Matt, when it comes to the fact that we are in this macroeconomic environment right now, likelihood that rates will be higher for longer here, at least, when you take a look at the expectations, especially following some of the commentary that we got from Fed officials this week, what does that signal more broadly for the AI trade, meaning, is there a reason to be a bit more cautious in this higher for longer rate environment, at least, in the near term?

MATT BRYSON: Yeah. I think certainly from a market perspective, high interest rates weight on the market. Eventually, they weigh on consumer spending. Certainly, for a lot of the chip names, they’re high multiple stocks.

When you think about where there can be more of a reaction or a negative reaction to high interest rates, certainly, it has some impact on those names. But in terms of, again, AI changing the fundamental landscape for tech, I don’t think that high interest rates or low interest rates will change that.

So when you think about Microsoft, Amazon, all of those large data center operators looking at AI, potentially, changing the landscape forever and wanting to make a bet on AI to make sure that they don’t miss that change, I don’t think whether interest rates are low or high are going to really affect their investment.

I think they’re going to go ahead and invest because no one wants to be the guy that missed the next technology wave.

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If pension funds can't see the case for investing in Canada, why should you? – The Globe and Mail

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It’s time to ask a rude question: Is Canada still worth investing in?

Before you rush to deliver an appropriately patriotic response, think about the issue for a moment.

A good place to begin is with the federal government’s announcement this week that it is forming a task force under former Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz. The task force’s job will be to find ways to encourage Canadian pension funds to invest more of their assets in Canada.

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Wooing pension funds has become a high-priority matter for Ottawa because, at the moment, these big institutional investors don’t invest all that much in Canada. The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, for instance, had a mere 14 per cent of its massive $570-billion portfolio in Canadian assets at the end of its last fiscal year.

Other major Canadian pension plans have similar allocations, especially if you look beyond their holdings of government bonds and consider only their investments in stocks, infrastructure and real assets. When it comes to such risky assets, these big, sophisticated players often see more potential for good returns outside of Canada than at home.

This leads to a simple question: If the CPPIB and other sophisticated investors aren’t overwhelmed by Canada’s investment appeal, why should you and I be?

It’s not as if Canadian stocks have a record of outstanding success. Over the past decade, they have lagged far behind the juicy returns of the U.S.-based S&P 500.

To be fair, other countries have also fallen short of Wall Street’s glorious run. Still, Canadian stocks have only a middling record over the past 10 years even when measured against other non-U.S. peers. They have trailed French and Japanese stocks and achieved much the same results as their Australian counterparts. There is no obvious Canadian edge.

There are also no obvious reasons to think this middle-of-the-pack record will suddenly improve.

A generation of mismanagement by both major Canadian political parties has spawned a housing crisis and kneecapped productivity growth. It has driven household debt burdens to scary levels.

Policy makers appear unwilling to take bold action on many long-standing problems. Interprovincial trade barriers remain scandalously high, supply-managed agriculture continues to coddle inefficient small producers, and tax policy still pushes people to invest in homes rather than in productive enterprises.

From an investor’s perspective, the situation is not that appetizing. A handful of big banks, a cluster of energy producers and a pair of railways dominate Canada’s stock market. They are solid businesses, yes, but they are also mature industries, with less than thrilling growth prospects.

What is largely missing from the Canadian stock scene are big companies with the potential to expand and innovate around the globe. Shopify Inc. SHOP-T and Brookfield Corp. BN-T qualify. After that, the pickings get scarce, especially in areas such as health care, technology and retailing.

So why hold Canadian stocks at all? Four rationales come to mind:

  • Canadian stocks have lower political risk than U.S. stocks, especially in the run-up to this year’s U.S. presidential election. They also are far away from the front lines of any potential European or Asian conflict.
  • They are cheaper than U.S. stocks on many metrics, including price-to-earnings ratios, price-to-book ratios and dividend yields. Scored in terms of these standard market metrics, they are valued more or less in line with European and Japanese stocks, according to Citigroup calculations.
  • Canadian dividends carry some tax advantages and holding reliable Canadian dividend payers means you don’t have to worry about exchange-rate fluctuations.
  • Despite what you may think, Canada’s fiscal situation actually looks relatively benign. Many countries have seen an explosion of debt since the pandemic hit, but our projected deficits are nowhere near as worrisome as those in the United States, China, Italy or Britain, according to International Monetary Fund figures.

How compelling you find these rationales will depend upon your personal circumstances. Based strictly on the numbers, Canadian stocks look like ho-hum investments – they’re reasonable enough places to put your money, but they fail to stand out compared with what is available globally.

Canadians, though, have always displayed a striking fondness for homebrew. Canadian stocks make up only a smidgen of the global market – about 3 per cent, to be precise – but Canadians typically pour more than half of their total stock market investments into Canadian stocks, according to the International Monetary Fund. This home market bias is hard to justify on any rational basis.

What is more reasonable? Vanguard Canada crunched the historical data in a report last year and concluded that Canadian investors could achieve the best balance between risk and reward by devoting only about 30 per cent of their equity holdings to Canadian stocks.

This seems to be more or less in line with what many Canadian pension funds currently do. They have about half their portfolio in equities, so devoting 30 per cent of that half to domestic stocks works out to holding about 15 per cent of their total portfolio in Canadian equities.

That modest allocation to Canadian stocks is a useful model for Canadian investors of all sizes. And if Ottawa doesn’t like it? Perhaps it could do more to make Canada an attractive investment destination.

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