A local real estate broker has thrown some cold water on the panic some may be feeling in the housing market.
A local real estate broker has thrown some cold water on the panic some may be feeling in the housing market.
Winnipeg’s real estate market has been like sitting in a hot tub for the last two years and now it is like jumping into a warmer pool, which will feel cold, but the water temperature is, in fact, warm. That’s the analogy used by Michael Froese, a managing partner with Royal LePage during an online webinar on Friday.
“Just because the pool feels colder than the hot tub doesn’t mean it’s bad, it doesn’t mean it’s actually cold,” Froese said. “Some of the market cooling, it’s cooling to go to a beautiful 85 degrees (Fahrenheit), this is a healthy real estate market.”
Froese pointed to the trends in real estate prices as one with peaks and valleys, but generally always heads in the right direction. High home price growth of 15% or more is commonly followed by short periods of modest price drops.
“This is what is also a really key thing to remember, is in real estate, and in housing, the highs of the high are usually more intense than the lows of the lows,” he said.
For instance, the average price of a single-detached home in Winnipeg in 1994 was $89,352, and the following year the average price dropped to $87,387. Then in 1996, the average price jumped up to $90,047.
“There’s going to be seasonal blips,” Froese said. “And we have an interest rate hike anticipated again in July, coinciding with our natural, plateauing and decrease of sales and price activity, means it’s going to it’s going to come down temporarily, but then it bounces back.”
Froese referred to Winnipeg’s housing sector as a “Goldilocks” market because it doesn’t get too hot or too cold, it’s “just right.”
“We’re very resilient to these volatile swings,” he said.
In 2021, 63% of houses sold over their listing price, with 28% going below the listing price and 7% going for the price listed. Froese said bidding wars for houses are slowly de-intensifying as well as the prices homes go for over their listing price.
Sellers are likely to price their homes at a listing they’re more willing to accept in the future, which can lead to more room for negotiation, Froese said. What that means with the sales to listing ratio points to prices holding on, he added.
“We’re going to see some prices depreciation because we have to, and it happens every single year pandemic are not interest rate or not prices always fluctuate, but it will be temporary,” Froese said.
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Blackstone Inc. BX-N said Monday it has no interest in investing in single-family homes in Canada, laying to rest speculation the giant global asset manager would scoop up hundreds of Canadian houses and turn them into rental properties.
After Blackstone announced plans in May to establish a Canadian office in Toronto, rumours abounded that the private equity firm would unleash its firepower, gobble up homes and increase competition for individuals and families looking to buy homes. The typical home price across the country has climbed 50 per cent over the past two years and real estate investors have come under scrutiny for their role in ramping up competition and driving up prices.
But Blackstone’s head of real estate Americas, Nadeem Meghji, said that is not in the cards for the company’s Canadian expansion.
“It’s just not an area that we are focused on in Canada,” he said in a joint interview with Janice Lin, the new head of Blackstone Canada.
The New York-based company, which has US$915.5-billion in assets under management, has been accused of profiting off the 2007 U.S. housing meltdown after it bought swaths of distressed properties and then rented them out to U.S. residents.
Blackstone has said it did not own any single-family homes before the crisis and didn’t foreclose on any of the properties. It has also said many of its purchases were homes that had been sitting vacant and dragging down local property values.
Blackstone has since sold that business and owns a rent-to-own business called Home Partners of America – one of the many players in a growing single-family home rental market in the U.S.
“We don’t have a similar platform in Canada and we don’t have the intention of launching one because, from our perspective, we think there are just more interesting places to deploy capital in the Canadian market,” Mr. Meghji said.
Ms. Lin, a former Canada Pension Plan Investment Board executive, is in charge of Blackstone’s expansion in Canada. She cited the country’s favourable immigration policies and its strong population growth as two key factors that make Canada a winner for Blackstone’s capital.
Blackstone mostly owns warehouses and other industrial space in Canada, as well as a couple of office towers. It also has some investments in apartment building developments. All together, they are worth about US$14-billion, according to Blackstone, representing just a tiny fraction of the company’s global real estate portfolio.
Ms. Lin and Mr. Meghji both said the company will continue to invest in industrial and top office buildings, as well as hotels.
Blackstone has previously said it expects its growth here will be significant. Mr. Meghji would not quantify “significant” except to say he expects growth will be material and Canada could eventually command a larger share of Blackstone’s global real estate portfolio.
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MONTREAL — When Soufia Khmarou moved from Morocco to Montreal in 2009, she thought finding an affordable house for her and her three children was going to be easy.
“I was not expecting this,” Khmarou said in an interview Monday. “What we see, what we hear about Quebec … the reality doesn’t reflect the ad.”
Khmarou appeared next to Manon Massé, a spokesperson with Quebec’s second opposition party, Québec solidaire, who told reporters Montreal’s affordable housing shortage is going to get worse if more money isn’t made available.
Standing next to a construction site of high-end condominiums near downtown Montreal, Massé said, “There are housing units being built in Montreal. But for the families that want to find a place to stay and afford to pay rent each month, there’s a crisis.”
The need for affordable housing will be especially acute after June 30, she said, when most of the leases across the province end. Many families will be forced to remain in or move into homes that are unsanitary or unfit for their needs. Massé said low-income families in Montreal and in the rest of the province are spending up to 85 per cent of their monthly incomes on housing.
Khmarou said she’s been on waiting lists to access subsidized housing for the past three years, hoping to move her family out of a Montreal apartment she said is unsanitary.
“But I don’t have any answers; all I see is more and more people on the same lists,” Khmarou said. “There’s no hope; there’s no low-rental housing that’s being added on the market.”
Montreal Mayor Valérie Plante held a separate news conference on Monday, also to lament the lack of affordable housing in the city. Plante said Montreal has been waiting for the past four years for millions of dollars promised by the federal government to build around 1,200 affordable housing units and renovate an additional 4,700 units.
“We know that there’s a housing crisis — it’s hard on July 1,” Plante told reporters. “To know that there are almost 6,000 units that are taken hostage, that aren’t made available for citizens, it’s unacceptable. It’s been four years, at one point, patience has a limit.
“When we talk about the safety and healthiness of housing units, that’s what’s at stake,” she said.
A coalition of housing committees and tenant associations in Quebec released a report over the weekend indicating a widespread rent increase across the province. The coalition analyzed 51,000 rental listings from February to May and said rents across the province increased by nine per cent between 2021 and 2022, reaching an average of $1,300 per month.
The coalition said that less-populated parts of the province were used to an accessible market but are now seeing strong increases.
Rentals.ca, a Canadian website for apartment rental searches, said the average rent for all Canadian properties listed on its site was $1,888 per month in May — a year-over-year rise of 10.5 per cent. With an average of about $2,000 a month for a two-bedroom unit, Montreal ranked 22nd out of 35 cities. Vancouver, the front-runner, had the same size units listed for an average of $3,495 per month.
The association of homebuilders, called the Association des professionnels de la construction et de l’habitation du Québec, said in a report last week that Quebec is missing 100,000 homes, with more than 37,000 families on waiting lists to access subsidized housing.
Paul Cardinal, director of economic services with the association, wrote that “the only way to sustainably reduce real estate overheating is to increase supply.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published on June 27, 2022.
This story was produced with the financial assistance of the Meta and Canadian Press News Fellowship.
Virginie Ann, The Canadian Press
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