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8 key investment themes for 2020 – Nasdaq

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In our industry, we can safely rely on the turn of the calendar year to bring with it an overflowing inbox of “bold calls” for year ahead. Through the barrage of 2020 predictions, sector bets, benchmark target revisions, and the like, we are struck by the sobering reality that it will be incredibly difficult for asset markets to repeat the heroic returns of 2019 this year. Notwithstanding a fundamental environment that appears to be stabilizing, more dovish global central banks, and a meaningful reduction in trade tensions, fulsome market valuations abound, leaving less room for upside and little margin of safety should any of these influences reverse, or should unforeseen new risks arise.

As such, we think a 4% to 5% returning portfolio would be a winner in fixed income in 2020. Our “Drive for 5(%)” centers around building a barbell portfolio, underpinned on one side by high quality fixed income, with carefully selected equity and alternative assets on the other. This portfolio mix will be instrumental in successfully navigating a macro environment that is likely to be dominated by eight major influences:

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1) Global Liquidity is vital in determining the investment opportunity set

Global liquidity is the most dominant, yet underappreciated, influence in contemporary global macro analysis. Central banks allowed liquidity to contract in 2018 and in early-2019, but they pivoted sharply over recent months. Liquidity injections in the fourth quarter of 2019 retraced more than half of the 2018-19 contraction. Further, we forecast that global liquidity will grow by an additional $1 trillion this year, providing important support for the economy and financial markets. Through 2020, there is a risk that liquidity is actually oversupplied and that central banks ultimately intervene verbally, to slow the momentum of liquidity-fueled risk rallies.

2) A yawning supply/demand imbalance in global assets will continue to be immensely powerful

We’re astounded by the massive capital flows seeking out the inherent stability of bonds and cash, as well as the record amounts of corporate stock buybacks. Both these actions are presumably being pursued by investors due to a perceived lack of attractive investment alternatives for cash. These phenomena are exacerbated by the crowding-out effect that surging global liquidity intentionally creates. Central bank asset purchases, combined with companies that are simply rolling existing debt without adding new borrowing, means that the net new supply of fixed income assets is likely to be some $400 to $500 billion lower than last year. Supply is not only contracting; it continues to be insufficient to match the demand from a global demographic transition of people that are heading into retirement in 2020 and the next decade – a cohort bringing with them into their golden years an intensifying bid for yield against a shrinking pool of available income (see graph).

 

3) 1.8% will be a guidepost for navigating financial and real economy ups-and-downs

Unlike some market commentators’ more dramatic predictions for 2020, we see a more moderate path for both U.S. growth and inflation this year, at about 1.8%. Today’s service-oriented economy, driven by technology, health care and consumer services, is largely insulated from the traditional cyclical influences that are more the hallmarks of an industrial economy. In fact, we wonder whether a traditional business cycle exists in precisely the same way anymore. Demographic headwinds are shifting global demand curves to the left and are driving equilibrium economic growth rates lower. With “muted” economic stability around 1.8%, global liquidity becomes the tail that wags the dog in the absence of big “macroeconomic imbalances.” We are prepared to fade extreme price moves when markets inevitably adopt more extreme views (in either direction) over the course of the year.

4) Inflation could have its best year of the post-crisis era, but still not average greater than 2.0%

While we foresee a cyclical rebound in inflation during the first half of 2020, we’re skeptical that it will either be sustained, or resemble traditional “econ 101-type inflation,” or “demand-driven inflation.” Temporarily elevated readings will simply be the result of a weaker USD, favorable base-effects, and a cyclical upswing in commodity prices. So, while Treasury yields may rise on the back of this inflation increase, any rise in yields will be met by unprecedented demand for yielding assets, limiting the impact.

5) Fiscal policy is a right-tail risk (not left-tail) in 2020

Developed market (DM) economies (ex-U.S.) have not enjoyed the tailwind of fiscal stimulus for many quarters, but that may change this year. In Europe, for instance, new leadership at the European Central Bank (ECB) and questions around the efficacy of the negative interest rate policy/zero interest rate policy (NIRP/ZIRP) could result in evolving policies that focus more on targeted growth, rather than fruitless efforts to generate inflation. Indeed, the Riksbank recently provided an example of how Euro-area policy might shift in 2020, when it de-emphasized NIRP in favor of fiscal expansion. In the U.S., both sides of the presidential debate will put forth stimulus plans for households, while China looks to have increased its reliance on fiscal policy within its overall policy mix.

6) Negative yields in the EU and Japan may turn to negative returns this year

In 2019, we saw a marked resurgence of negative yielding debt, to the tune of $17 trillion in August (which has since fallen by a third), mostly in Europe and Japan. These assets face a huge task in generating positive returns in 2020. Core front-end European rates still trade below the ECB policy rate, which is unlikely to be lowered further, yield curves are as flat as they have been in a decade, mitigating roll-down benefits, and European 10-Year yields sit well below all other “crisis” moments of the last decade. The combination of stabilizing growth and inflation, lagged benefits of 2019’s Federal Reserve (Fed) easing, ongoing global liquidity injections, and a potential boost from new fiscal initiatives can combine to catalyze a drift higher in DM yields and term premia, which may generate negative returns for the negative-yielding universe.

7) U.S. Treasury yields will trade in a tighter range in 2020, relative to 2019

Last year we also saw an historic pivot by global central banks toward unexpectedly dovish policies, leading to tremendous rate market volatility. In contrast, with DM rate policy now firmly entrenched in a stable equilibrium, a stable real economy and overwhelming demand for yielding assets, U.S. Treasuries will likely be range-bound during 2020, with the potential for a somewhat steeper yield curve. We envision a 1.75% to 2.25% range on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury note, barring temporary spikes, if the perfect storm of higher equity markets, weaker USD, and higher commodity prices spark inflation fears among one-word headline watchers. As a result, we like the front end of the curve, anchored as it is likely to be by Fed policy rates that aren’t anticipated to budge much this year.

8) Long global equity and long equity volatility will be good tactical opportunities in 2020

We think that tactical investment opportunities will likely arise from the laggards of the past decade, namely: the FTSE, Hang Seng, Nikkei and European bank stock indices. Well-known political risks, heavy ties to manufacturing, and perpetually low growth potential have weighed on these benchmarks, but policy pivots, benign valuations and increasingly enticing dividend yields (especially relative to fixed income alternatives) could provide the spark for a rally. The demand for yield will eventually trump structural headwinds in these areas of the market, in our estimation. With that in mind, we still believe that U.S. equity markets offer a best-in-class “fundamental” backdrop, with gains likely to be primarily driven by world leaders in innovation, high-returning research and development spenders and firms with solid and sustainable profitability levels; i.e. the fast rivers of cash flow. These segments of the U.S. market will also witness additional technical market support from the hundreds of billions of dollars in share buybacks expected to be undertaken this year.

Portfolio Positioning Considerations

We think markets will perform well at the outset of 2020, but anxiety will rise as valuations become increasingly stretched as the year evolves. In our “Drive for 5(%),” we like liquid portfolios oriented around high-quality yield with upside potential through the equity market. And we like using cheap volatility as a tool for hedging. Our “Drive for 5(%)” may sound pedestrian when compared to the 5% average return for the U.S. Aggregate Index over the past 20 years (though it’s been closer to 4% post-crisis), but on the heels of a stunning 9% return for that index in 2019, along with yields in most sectors that are currently near all-time lows, attaining this traditional 5% return will actually be extremely challenging. For the Aggregate Index to attain a 5% return in 2020, yields and spreads would have to fall about another 20% from already-low levels, to new all-time lows, which is implausible in our view.

Therefore, given the ubiquitous, already realized, spread compression we’ve witnessed in credit sectors, the bar is high to justify extending down the credit spectrum for yield. Similarly, with yield curves so flat, there is little rationale to extend duration. As a result, we’re focused on high quality securitized assets with LIBOR + AAA/AA spreads, European investment-grade (IG) debt swapped back to USD, front-end U.S. IG credit, the mortgage-backed securities basis, and commercial mortgage-backed securities bespoke assets. When we do reach for a bit of yield, it will be selective and could likely focus on emerging markets (EM) local currency credit, bank loans and BBB rated collateralized loan obligations, alongside tactical positions in some U.S. high yield debt.

Further, as mentioned, we’re concentrating equity risk exposure within the “fast rivers of cash flow” that we mentioned previously, while attempting to avoid dead-weight names and value traps. We also favor EM equities and high dividend European equities. We think a well-constructed equity portfolio can potentially return 8% to 12% in 2020. Among alternative assets, we like bespoke expressions that encompass an optimal mix of high yields, quality collateral and upside potential. We expect a successful alternative portfolio to return roughly 10% to 14% in 2020. Managed together, a barbell portfolio such as this can reward investors appropriately for taking risk in a year that will, in retrospect, likely be described as more challenging than usual.

Rick Rieder, Managing Director, is BlackRock’s Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income and is Head of the Global Allocation Investment Team. Russell Brownback, Managing Director, is Head of Global Macro positioning for Fixed Income, and both are regular contributors to The Blog. Trevor Slaven, Director, is a portfolio manager on BlackRock’s Global Fixed Income team and is also the Head of Macro Research for Fundamental Fixed Income, and he co-authored this post.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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Investment Statistics (10 Investment Statistics Investors Need To Know) – Forbes

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Understanding investment markets can be difficult, as there’s so much information to sort through. Fortunately, you don’t need to understand every single concept or piece of data to have success as an investor.

A few important, simple and often surprising investment statistics can guide your choices and make you a better investor in the long term. Here are a few worth considering.

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1. The Annual Return of the S&P 500 (10% Per Year)

The stock market has been a consistent way to build wealth over the past 100 years. Likewise, from April 1, 1936 through March 31, 2024, the S&P 500 Index–a widely followed barometer for the broad U.S. stock market–averaged an annual return of 10.75%.

To put that return into perspective, if you earn 10% per year on your savings, and your gains compound quarterly, you’ll double your money roughly every seven years. Put $20,000 in an S&P 500 fund today, and if you earn the historical return of 10% per year, you’ll have $40,000 in about seven years.

Of course, the stock market is unpredictable and goes through swings. Your portfolio might go down some years and up by more than 10% in others. The key takeaway is that the stock market posts a substantial average annual return over time.

2. The Average Annual Inflation Rate (3.8% Per Year)

Inflation is another reason why it’s essential to invest. When prices go up, the purchasing power of each of your dollars goes down. On average, U.S. inflation has been 3.8% percent per year from 1960 to 2022. If you aren’t earning at least that much on your money, it’s losing value. Your balance might stay the same in a bank account, but it buys less and less, making you poorer.

Investments like stocks historically outperform inflation. By investing some of your money in stocks and stock funds, your savings and spending power can keep up with rising prices.

3. The Number of Active Day Traders Who Lose Money (80%)

Using an index fund, you can often match the performance of the entire S&P 500 and various major stock markets. This is different from buying and selling–or trading–individual stocks. Trading individual stocks can be exciting when it succeeds, leading sometimes to sharp short-term gains, but profiting consistently is very hard.

In fact, 75% of day traders trying to invest professionally quit within two years, and 80% of their trades are unprofitable, according to a University of Berkeley study. And individual stock day traders working through a taxable account often generate short-term capital gains, which are taxed at higher ordinary income rates than long-term capital gains. Day traders can also trigger a lot of investment fees. Also, as a day trader you’re competing against the best professional investors on Wall Street, many backed by big research teams.

Most regular investors are better off using mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, that aim to match the stock market instead. It’s less exciting but still lucrative in the long term.

4. The Cost of an Index Fund vs. an Active Fund for a $1 Million Portfolio ($1,200 vs. $6,000 Per Year)

If you’re trying to pick an investment fund, consider the cost. An index fund keeps costs low by simply trying to mimic the performance of a specific segment of the market. The S&P 500 is one. It consists of 500 of the largest companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges. The Nasdaq 100 consists of stocks issued by 100 of the largest nonfinancial businesses listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange.

Many index funds track each of those groups. Generally, their costs are kept low because they don’t have to pay for lots of investors, analysts and software wizards to find stocks. In contrast, actively managed funds do pay for talented people who can pick stocks that outperform. Those costs get passed on to shareholders like you.

Index funds, on average, charge 0.12% per year versus the 0.60% charged by active investment funds. That means on a $1 million portfolio, you’d pay $1,200 per year for an index fund versus $6,000 a year for an active fund.

Despite charging much more, 79% of active funds, trying to earn higher returns, underperformed the S&P 500 in 2021. Often, you’re paying extra fees for actively managed funds without getting any additional return in exchange.

5. The Average Length of a Bear Market (14 Months)

One drawback to investing is that your returns are not guaranteed. In some years you’ll earn a lot. In others, your portfolio could lose money. It’s not fun to lose money, but during this stretch, remind yourself that the market will turn around eventually.

The average historical bear market, a period when stocks are losing value, has lasted 14 months. On the other hand, the average historical bull market, when stocks go up in value, has lasted five years.

The market will go through cycles of gains and losses. Remember that the positive stretches last longer than the negative ones.

6. The Number of ‘Best Investing Days’ That Can Turn a Positive Portfolio Negative If Missed (20 Days Over Two Decades)

When the market crashes, you might feel tempted to cash out and wait until things start picking up again. This is one of the most expensive mistakes investors make.

Why is that? Because so much of the stock market’s long-term returns come from single-day gains. The market sometimes shoots up by 5%, 7% or even 10% in a single day. Those days are impossible to predict. And they often occur at the start of a rally.

Individual retail investors often miss those explosive, unexpected upturns because they cashed out or moved to bonds amid the market’s earlier downturn.

A JPMorgan report found that if investors missed the top 10 best days of investing over a two-decade period from January 1999 to December 2018, it cut their portfolio return in half. If investors missed the top 20 best investing days, their return turned negative, meaning that they lost money over that two-decade period. Don’t try to time the market. Stay invested for the long term for the best results.

7. The Monthly Investment Needed to Reach $1 Million If You Start at Age 25 vs. Age 45 ($350 vs. $1,650)

The earlier you start investing, the more time you have to build wealth. This makes it easier to hit your long-term financial goals.

Let’s say you want $1 million in your nest egg for retirement at age 67. You expect to earn 7% a year, a reasonable return for a portfolio of stocks and bonds. If you start at age 25, you would need to save about $350 per month. If you start at age 45, you must save around $1,650 a month.

If you’re still early in your career, consider ways to save more money. Even a little extra today will make reaching your future financial goals easier. Don’t get discouraged if you are later in your career. You may wish you had started earlier, but anything you put aside now will help you once you retire. As the saying goes, perhaps the best time to start was years ago, but the second-best is now.

8. The Number of People With a Workplace Retirement Plan (44%)

A workplace retirement plan, like a 401(k), can help you invest. Those plans let you save money and defer yearly tax on growth in your investments inside your account. With a traditional 401(k), you also get a tax deduction for the money you kick into your account. In most cases, your employer also contributes to your account.

Only 44% of American workers have access to a workplace retirement plan. If you have one, study how it works to take full advantage.

The majority of workers, 56%, do not have a retirement plan at their job. Consider an individual retirement account, or IRA, if you are in that situation. It offers similar tax advantages for your retirement savings and investment goals.

9. The Expected Life Expectancy of Males and Females Turning 65 (82 and 85 Years)

The top reason most people invest is to save for retirement. And retirement might last a lot longer than you expect. The typical male turning 65 today is expected to live until 82, while females are expected to live until 85, according to the Social Security Administration.

That is a retirement lasting an average of nearly two decades. Some people will live even longer, reaching 90, 100 or even older. This is why saving and investing regularly is important—to build extra savings to fund your retirement lifestyle.

10. The Average Baby Boomer 401(k) Balance ($230,900)

Fidelity measured the average 401(k) balance by age of its customers. This can give you an idea of where your savings stack up against your peers:

  • Gen Z: $9,800
  • Millennials: $54,000
  • Gen X: $165,300
  • Baby Boomers: $230,900

This represents investments in a 401(k). People may have more money in an IRA or other investment account. Still, those figures show that the typical person does not retire with $1 million. Therefore, you shouldn’t feel behind if you’re just starting to save for retirement. Do what you can to beat these averages and grow your portfolio.

Hopefully, these statistics help shed some light on the importance of investing and investing wisely. Consider meeting with a financial advisor to discuss your portfolio for more advice.

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Deutsche Bank's Investment Bankers Step Up as Rate Boost Fades – Yahoo Canada Finance

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(Bloomberg) — Deutsche Bank AG relied on its traders and investment bankers to make up for a slowdown in income from lending, as Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing seeks to deliver on an ambitious revenue goal.

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Fixed income trading rose 7% in the first quarter, more than analysts had expected and better than most of the biggest US investment banks. Income from advising on deals and stock and bond sales jumped 54%.

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Revenue for the group rose about 1% as the prospect of falling interest rates hurt the corporate bank and the private bank that houses the retail business.

Sewing has vowed to improve profitability and lift revenue to €30 billion this year, a goal some analysts view with skepticism as the end of the rapid rate increases weighs on revenue from lending. In the role for six years, the CEO is cutting thousands of jobs in the back office to curb costs while building out the advisory business with last year’s purchase of Numis Corp. to boost fee income.

“We are very pleased” with the investment bank, Chief Financial Officer James von Moltke said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. The trends of the first quarter “have continued into April,” he said, including “a slower macro environment” that’s being offset by “momentum in credit” and emerging markets.

While traders and investment bankers did well, revenue at the corporate bank declined 5% on lower net interest income. Private bank revenue fell about 2%. Both units benefited when central banks raised interest rates over the past two years, allowing them to charge more for loans while still paying relatively little for deposits.

With inflation slowing and interest rates set to fall again, that effect is reversing, though markets have scaled back expectations for how quickly and how deep central banks are likely to cut. That’s lifted shares of Europe’s lenders recently, with Deutsche Bank gaining 25% this year.

“Deutsche Bank reported a reasonable set of results,” analysts Thomas Hallett and Andrew Stimpson at KBW wrote in a note. “The investment bank performed well while the corporate bank and asset management underperformed.”

–With assistance from Macarena Muñoz and Oliver Crook.

(Updates with CFO comments in fifth paragraph.)

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How Can I Invest in Eco-friendly Companies? – CB – CanadianBusiness.com

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Welcome to CB’s personal-finance advice column, Make It Make Sense, where each month experts answer reader questions on complex investment and personal-finance topics and break them down in terms we can all understand. This month, Damir Alnsour, a lead advisor and portfolio manager at money-management platform Wealthsimple, tackles eco-friendly investments. Have a question about your finances? Send it to [email protected].


Q: It’s Earth Month! And… there’s a climate crisis. How can I invest in companies and portfolios funding causes I believe in?

Earth Day may have been introduced in 1970, but today it’s more relevant than ever: In a 2023 survey, 72 per cent of Canadians said they were worried about climate change. Along with carpooling, ditching single-use plastics and composting, you can celebrate Earth Month this year by greening your investment portfolio.

Green investing, or buying shares in projects, companies, or funds that are committed to environmental sustainability, is an excellent way to support projects and businesses that reflect your passions and lifestyle choices. It’s growing in favour among Canadian investors, but there are some considerations investors should be mindful of. Let’s review some green investing options and what to look out for.

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Green Bonds

Green bonds are a fixed-income instrument where the proceeds are put toward climate-related purposes. In 2022, the Canadian government launched its first Green Bond Framework, which saw strong demand from domestic and global investors. This resulted in a record $11 billion green bonds being sold. One warning: Because it’s a smaller market, green bonds tend to be less liquid than many other investments.

It’s also important to note that a “green” designation can mean a lot of different things. And they’re not always all that environmentally-guided. Some companies use broad, vague terms to explain how the funds will be used, and they end up using the money they raised with the bond sale to pay for other corporate needs that aren’t necessarily eco-friendly. There’s also the practice of “greenwashing,” labelling investments as “green” for marketing campaigns without actually doing the hard work required to improve their environmental footprint.

To make things more challenging, funds and asset managers themselves can partake in greenwashing. Many funds that purport to be socially responsible still hold oil and gas stocks, just fewer of them than other funds. Or they own shares of the “least problematic” of the oil and gas companies, thereby touting emission reductions without clearly disclosing the extent of those improvements. As with any type of investing, it’s important to do your research and understand exactly what you’re investing in.

Socially Responsible Investing (SRI) and Impact Investing

SRI and impact investing portfolios hold a mix of stocks and bonds that are intended to put your money towards projects and companies that work to advance progressive social outcomes or address a social issue—i.e., investing in companies that don’t wreak havoc on society. They can include companies promoting sustainable growth, diverse workforces and equitable hiring practices.

The main difference between the two approaches is that SRI uses a measurable criteria to qualify or disqualify companies as socially responsible, while impact investing typically aims to help an enterprise produce some social or environmental benefit.

Related: Climate Change Is Influencing How Young People Invest Their Money

Some financial institutions use the two approaches to build well-diversified, low-cost, socially responsible portfolios that align with most clients’ environmental and societal preferences. That said, not all portfolios are constructed with the same care. As with evaluating green bonds, it’s important to remember that a company or fund having an SRI designation or saying it partakes in impact investing is subjective. There’s always a risk of not knowing exactly where and with whom the money is being invested.

All three of these options are good reminders that, even though you may feel helpless to enact environmental or social change in the face of larger systemic issues, your choices can still support the well-being of society and the planet. So, if you have extra funds this April (maybe from your tax return?), green or social investing are solid options. As long as you do thorough research and understand some of the limitations, you’re sure to find investments that are both good for the world and your finances.

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