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A warning on houses as an investment

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A warning on houses as an investment

 

A warning on houses as an investment, houses have long been seen as a safe and reliable investment in Canada, so we have thought. However, with the changing economic landscape, it is important to be aware of the potential risks associated with investing in real estate. While the housing market has provided excellent returns in some areas in Canada over the past decade, there are still some areas in Canada that sees returns take years to crop and key warning signs that those considering investing in Canadian real estate should be aware of.

Financial planner Robb Engen did something bold the other day in his popular, long-running blog, Boomer & Echo. He laid bare the finances of his own home in a way that contradicts a core belief in Canadian personal finance.

Mr. Engen and his family plan to sell the Lethbridge, Alta., home they bought for $424,000 back in 2011. Based on a projected selling price of $524,000, he estimates a modest compound average annual growth rate of 1.94 per cent.

The idea that houses are an investment is foundational in Canadian real estate. Mr. Engen’s story shows us the need to think more about this. Some regions of the country never participated in the price surge of rent years, and prices on average are falling across the country. It could take years for the recent crop of home buyers to see prices appreciate much above what they paid.

The 1.94-per-cent average annual gain for Mr. Engen’s home represents the kind of analysis that most people do in sizing up the investment value of their real estate purchase. Mr. Engen, being a qualified associate financial planner (QAFP), dug deeper. First, he included costs like realtor fees, landscaping, renovations to finish the basement, property taxes and insurance. Then, he added the lost opportunity cost of investing the money used for a down payment on the house.

Final verdict: Owning the house produced pretty much the same financial result that would have been achieved by renting and investing the money saved by not being an owner.

Mr. Engen notes that house appreciation in B.C. and Ontario has been lottery-like for some buyers. “But for homeowners living in Alberta, Saskatchewan, or in Atlantic Canada, the math isn’t always as favourable. Home prices can stagnate for many years, and phantom costs eat into your returns over time.”

That’s a timely warning. The national average resale house price was down about 22 per cent from the February 2022 peak as of September, and now there’s a risk of the economy lapsing into recession. Prices may fall further or stagnate in locations around the country.

In the long term, houses can be expected to appreciate by an average annual amount that is equal to or a bit higher than inflation. We may get periods of double-digit gains like we saw in 2021, but that’s abnormal. Overly hot markets can turn overly cold.


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Investment

Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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