Monday’s clash marks the second meeting between the Ravens and Browns this season, after the AFC North rivals met in week 1 at M&T Bank Stadium. The Ravens took the first game convincingly, steamrolling the Browns 38-6. However, a lot has changed since that initial meeting that suggested both sides were very much the incarnation of their 2019 selves. Namely, the Ravens have taken a major step back while the Browns have made positive strides in the right direction.
It remains to be seen whether the Browns can keep up their positive run of form down the stretch in order to clinch a playoff spot for the first time in forever; or whether the Ravens can turn the tables in their favor and salvage their 2020 campaign. If the NFL odds were any indication, the balance tips towards the latter. The Ravens are laying -3.5 points after opening as the field goal road faves.
The total, meanwhile, opened on 47 points, but there’s a distinct trend developing betting trend that sees the number shrinking at various sports betting sites to anywhere between 45.5 and 46 points.
[embedded content]
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
Monday, December 14, 2020 – 08:15 PM EST at FirstEnergy Stadium
AFC Playoff Hopes Hang in the Balance
Playoff hopes are riding on the outcome of Monday’s hyped up clash between the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns, divisional rivals that came into the 2020 NFL season amidst high expectations. However, few would have predicted the team that’s desperate for the win this Monday would be the Ravens, who as things currently stand are sitting just outside of the playoff frame with a 7-5-0 SU mark. Indeed, if the playoffs were to start today, Lamar Jackson and Co. would be surfing the sofa, watching the playoffs like the rest of us on telly.
How quickly things change….
Only last season, the Ravens finished with a stellar 14-2-0 SU mark to clinch the No.1 seed in the AFC. On the strength of Baltimore’s standout 2019 record, spurred along by Lamar Jackson’s MVP-winning quarterbacking, expectations were high for the Ravens in 2020. The highest possible actually as preseason projections tipped the Ravens alongside the Kansas City Chiefs as the top best bets in Super Bowl LV betting.
Fast forward to this week, on the cusp of week 14, the path to the playoffs has narrowed considerably for Baltimore.
Ravens Push for Playoffs
Despite all the uncertainty surrounding a worrisome covid-19 outbreak within Baltimore’s ranks, Jim Harbaugh’s side came out guns blazing last week in a rare Tuesday showdown with the Dallas Cowboys. The Ravens were sharp from the start and raced to a quick lead, never looking back on route to a 34-17 win that saw Baltimore cover as the closing 8.5 point fave comfortably while the total cracked the 46-point closing total.
The passing game has been suspect this season, with Lamar Jackson struggling to really dominate opposing defenses through the air, but last week he had a quasi bounce-back performance at the expense of the hapless Dallas Cowboys. Jackson went 12 of 17 for 107 yards with two touchdowns and a pick that earned him a 78.7 QB rating, his best in the last five weeks. Jackson also picked up 94 yards rushing on 13 attempts, adding to his sides 294 rushing yards on 37 attempts for the night.
That said, not since week 1 against the Browns has Jackson cracked 250 passing yards and not since week 4 has he averaged eight yards per pass attempt. One has to consider that those numbers have to get better if the Ravens hope to make a reliable push in the postseason.
If there’s one thing that lifts Baltimore’s odds, it’s the strength (or lack thereof) of the NFL schedule down the stretch. The Ravens are deemed to have one of the easier schedules over the last four games.
The Ravens are 7-5-0 SU and 6-6-0 ATS this season, which includes a 7.1 winning margin on average and a plus 1.3-point differential versus the spread. The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Baltimore’s 12 games. The Ravens have scored 316 points and conceded 231 points through 12 games for a point differential of 85 points.
Browns Punching Above Their Weight-Class
Many were quick to write off the Browns following the humiliating defeat to the Ravens in week 1, but the Browns managed to turn things around relatively quickly by winning 9 of their ensuing 11 games thanks to a heavy reliance on the run game. The Browns sport one of the most potent running backs in the league in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and the pair is largely credited with the Browns’ success. At the same time, Baker Mayfield has shown to be an able game manager doing just enough to contribute to his side’s stellar campaign thus far.
As it is, Kevin Stefanski’s side is sat pretty in second place in the AFC North and rolling behind a four-game winning streak into week 14. A run of form that was recently underscored by a gauntlet-throwing victory over the Tennessee Tians in week 13 that sent seismic shockwaves through NFL betting markets.
The Browns entered last week’s pivotal contest with the Titans as the significant road underdogs. However, they didn’t get the memo it seems, going on to deliver and illuminating 41-35 win over the Titans as the +4 closing road underdogs. The total, meanwhile, cracked the closing 54-point total.
To be fair, the win over the Titans marked Cleveland’s second credible victory on the season, after beating the Colts 37-34. The rest of their victories have come at the expense of lesser opponents – a fact that may be partly contributing to the less than favourable NFL odds that are currently trading for this week 14 NFL clash.
The Browns are 9-3-0 SU but 5-7-0 ATS with -1.2 losing margin on average and a minus 2.7-point differential versus the spread. The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cleveland’s 12 games.
Curiously, the point differential for Cleveland stands at -15 with 306 points scored to 321 points conceded. These numbers are heavily skewed by the loss to the Ravens in week 1 and a 36-7 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in week 6.
Predictions and Picks:
Recent trends between these two rivals reveals a distinct trend towards the UNDER: 6 of the last 8 games have gone below the projected total number. This includes the first meeting in 2020 that went below the closing 47 point total.
On account of both teams’ penchant for the rushing game and solid defending, there’s good reason to expect this game to fall below the total that is currently trading across various sports betting sites. In fact, the bulk of the early bets coming down the wire according to SBR suggests the UNDER is the best bet for week 14 NFL picks.
And yet, despite the legitimate reasons mentioned above, along with the fact that the passing game with these two teams seems to be an afterthought in most cases, there is a scenario in which this total could go OVER. Consider the Ravens put up almost 40 points against Cleveland in week 1. Moreover, the Browns are coming off a right scoring fest in Tennessee that saw scoring come from all facets.
It may be a long shot bet – certainly one that goes against the grain – but the OVER leaps off the page as the choice NFL pick here.
NFL Total Pick: OVER 45.5 (-109) with GTbets (visit our GTbets Review)
BAL-CLE O/45.5(-109)
