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A closer look at the Maple Leafs remarkable comeback from a sports betting perspective – TSN

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It was extraordinary, remarkable and unprecedented.

The Toronto Maple Leafs pulled off the unthinkable in their 4-3 OT win over the Columbus Blue Jackets on Friday night.

Considering the circumstances, it isn’t a surprise that some fans might have actually missed at least a portion of it.

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The Maple Leafs became the first team in NHL history to come back after trailing by three goals or more in the final five minutes to win an elimination playoff game.

The fact that Toronto’s epic comeback from three goals down to win Game 4 in overtime came just one night after Columbus had rallied from a 3-0 deficit to win Game 3 in overtime made the situation seem even more improbable.

According to Elias, this is just the second series in Stanley Cup playoff history in which both teams overcame a three-goal deficit to win.

The Maple Leafs were the betting favourite to win Game 4 at -130 odds, which translates to a 56.5 per cent implied win probability.

However, everything that happened in the first 56 minutes and three seconds of that game swung the odds in favour of the Blue Jackets.

Cam Atkinson opened the scoring just 3:58 in to the first period.

Columbus added to its lead less than five minutes in to the second, when Vladislav Gavrikov scored his first career playoff goal to make it 2-0.

By the time the third period got underway, Toronto’s live odds were updated to +400 to win – a 20.0 per cent implied win probability.

Those odds would get much worse before they got better.

With less than six minutes left in regulation, Nick Foligno stole the puck from Morgan Rielly just inside the Maple Leafs’ blue line and set up Boone Jenner, who beat Frederik Andersen to make it 3-0 Columbus.

Trailing by three goals with just 5:42 left on the clock, Toronto’s deficit seemed insurmountable. 

The live odds for the Maple Leafs to win lengthened all the way to +2000 – just a 4.8 per cent implied win probability.

Nobody expected what happened next.

With the net empty, William Nylander put Toronto on the board with his second goal of the playoffs – only barely getting enough on a loose puck in front of the net to beat Elvis Merzlikins.

According to Evolving Hockey, Columbus still had a 96.7 per cent chance to win the game when Nylander scored to make it 3-1 with 3:57 left on the clock.

The Maple Leafs live odds to win shortened from 40-to-1 to 12-to-1.

Less than a minute later and with the net still empty, Auston Matthews set up John Tavares in the slot for his second of the series to make it 3-2 with 3:06 remaining in the third.

After two goals in 51 seconds, Toronto’s win probability jumped from 3.3 per cent to 7.1 per cent.

The live betting odds were taken off the board.

Everybody knows what happened next.

With under a minute to go, Matthews found Zach Hyman alone near the faceoff dot.

After a quick touch to get the puck from his skate to his stick, Hyman fired the tying goal past Merzlikins.

It was 3-3 with 23 seconds left on the clock.

While everybody will remember Hyman’s goal to force overtime, it’s easy to forget what happened just a minute and 15 seconds before that.

With the Blue Jackets up 3-2 and 1:38 left in regulation, Pierre-Luc Dubois carried the puck over the Toronto blue line and fired it towards the empty net.

His shot veered just wide of the post and hit the outside of the net.

While a goal would have likely sealed a win and clinched the series, the odds were still heavily in favour of a Columbus win even after Dubois’ missed opportunity.

According to Evolving Hockey, the Blue Jackets still had a 98.6 per cent chance to win when Dubois missed the gaping net with 98 seconds left in regulation.

That changed in a hurry.

Hyman tied the game at 3-3, the final 23 seconds of the third period ran down and the two teams left the ice to prepare for overtime.

At the end of regulation, Toronto was a -150 live betting favourite to win – a 60.0 per cent implied win probability – even shorter odds than they had at the start of the game.

Seven minutes in to the extra period, Foligno was called for tripping Rielly, which sent the Maple Leafs to the powerplay.

Ten seconds later, Matthews fired the winner past Merzlikins to complete the improbable comeback win.

Friday marked the first time since 1988 that the NHL schedule featured six elimination games on one day.

Toronto’s unprecedented comeback was the only thing that prevented a clean sweep of all six teams that were facing elimination.

Before the playoffs began, the Pittsburgh Penguins, Edmonton Oilers and Leafs had the shortest odds to win the Stanley Cup of the 16 teams to compete in the Stanley Cup qualifier round.

Pittsburgh and Edmonton were both eliminated on Friday.

Now Toronto will attempt to join the Carolina Hurricanes and a pair of Canadian teams – the Calgary Flames and Vancouver Canucks – as the only qualifying round series favourites to advance to the round of 16. 

The Maple Leafs are currently listed at -145 to win Game 5 versus Columbus – a 59.2 per cent implied win probability.

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NHL teams, take note: Alexandar Georgiev is proof that anything can happen in the playoffs

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It’s hard to say when, exactly, Alexandar Georgiev truly began to win some hearts and change some minds on Tuesday night.

Maybe it was in the back half of the second period; that was when the Colorado Avalanche, for the first time in their first-round Stanley Cup playoff series against the Winnipeg Jets, actually managed to hold a lead for more than, oh, two minutes or thereabouts. Maybe it was when the Avs walked into the locker room up 4-2 with 20 minutes to play.

Maybe it was midway through the third, when a series of saves by the Avalanche’s beleaguered starting goaltender helped preserve their two-goal buffer. Maybe it was when the buzzer sounded after their 5-2 win. Maybe it didn’t happen until the Avs made it into their locker room at Canada Life Centre, tied 1-1 with the Jets and headed for Denver.

At some point, though, it should’ve happened. If you were watching, you should’ve realized that Colorado — after a 7-6 Game 1 loss that had us all talking not just about all those goals, but at least one of the guys who’d allowed them — had squared things up, thanks in part to … well, that same guy.

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Georgiev, indeed, was the story of Game 2, stopping 28 of 30 shots, improving as the game progressed and providing a lesson on how quickly things can change in the playoffs — series to series, game to game, period to period, moment to moment. The narrative doesn’t always hold. Facts don’t always cooperate. Alexandar Georgiev, for one night and counting, was not a problem for the Colorado Avalanche. He was, in direct opposition to the way he played in Game 1, a solution. How could we view him as anything else?

He had a few big-moment saves, and most of them came midway through the third period with his team up 4-2. There he was with 12:44 remaining, stopping a puck that had awkwardly rolled off Nino Niederreiter’s stick; two missed posts by the Avs at the other end had helped spring Niederreiter for a breakaway. Game 1 Georgiev doesn’t make that save.

There he was, stopping Nikolaj Ehlers from the circle a few minutes later. There wasn’t an Avs defender within five feet, and there was nothing awkward about the puck Ehlers fired at his shoulder. Game 1 Georgiev gets scored on twice.

(That one might’ve been poetic justice. It was Ehlers who’d put the first puck of the night on Georgiev — a chip from center ice that he stopped, and that the crowd in Winnipeg greeted with the ol’ mock cheer. Whoops.)

By the end of it all, Georgiev had stared down Connor Hellebuyck and won, saving nearly 0.5 goals more than expected according to Natural Stat Trick, giving the Avalanche precisely what they needed and looking almost nothing like the guy we’d seen a couple days before. Conventional wisdom coming into this series was twofold: That the Avs have firepower, high-end talent and an overall edge — slight as it may be — on Winnipeg, and that Georgiev is shaky enough to nuke the whole thing.

That wasn’t without merit, either. Georgiev’s .897 save percentage in the regular season was six percentage points below the league average, and he hadn’t broken even in expected goals allowed (minus-0.21). He’d been even worse down the stretch, putting up an .856 save percentage in his final eight appearances, and worse still in Game 1, allowing seven goals on 23 shots and more than five goals more than expected. That’s not bad; that’s an oil spill. Writing him off would’ve been understandable. Writing off Jared Bednar for rolling him out there in Game 2 would’ve been understandable. Writing the Avs off — for all of Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar’s greatness — would’ve been understandable.

It just wouldn’t have been correct.

The fact that this all went down now, four days into a two-month ordeal, is a gift — because the postseason thus far has been short on surprises, almost as a rule. The Rangers and Oilers are overwhelming the Capitals and Kings. The Hurricanes are halfway done with the Islanders. The Canucks are struggling with the Predators. PanthersLightning is tight, but one team is clearly better than the other. BruinsMaple Leafs is a close matchup featuring psychic baggage that we don’t have time to unpack. In Golden KnightsStars, Mark Stone came back and scored a huge goal.

None of that should shock you. None of that should make you blink.

Georgiev being good enough for Colorado, though? After what we saw in Game 1? Strange, surprising and completely true. For now.

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"Laugh it off": Evander Kane says Oilers won’t take the bait against Kings | Offside

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The LA Kings tried every trick in the book to get the Edmonton Oilers off their game last night.

Hacks after the whistle, punches to the face, and interference with line changes were just some of the things that the Oilers had to endure, and throughout it all, there was not an ounce of retaliation.

All that badgering by the Kings resulted in at least two penalties against them and fuelled a red-hot Oilers power play that made them pay with three goals on four chances. That was by design for Edmonton, who knew that LA was going to try to pester them as much as they could.

That may have worked on past Oilers teams, but not this one.

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“We’ve been in a series now for the third year in a row with these guys,” Kane said after practice this morning. “We know them, they know us… it’s one of those things where maybe it makes it a little easier to kind of laugh it off, walk away, or take a shot.

“That type of stuff isn’t gonna affect us.”

Once upon a time, this type of play would get under the Oilers’ skin and result in retaliatory penalties. Yet, with a few hard-knock lessons handed down to them in the past few seasons, it seems like the team is as determined as ever to cut the extracurriculars and focus on getting revenge on the scoreboard.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the longest-tenured player on this Oilers team, had to keep his emotions in check with Kings defender Vladislav Gavrikov, who punched him in the face early in the game. The easy reaction would be to punch back, but the veteran Nugen-Hopkins took his licks and wound up scoring later in the game.

“It’s going to be physical, the emotions are high, and there’s probably going to be some stuff after the whistle,” Nugent-Hopkins told reporters this morning. “I think it’s important to stay poised out there and not retaliate and just play through the whistles and let the other stuff just kind of happen.”

Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch also noticed his team’s discipline. Playoff hockey is full of emotion, and keeping those in check to focus on the larger goal is difficult. He was happy with how his team set the tone.

“It’s not necessarily easy to do,” Knoblauch said. “You get punched in the face and sometimes the referees feel it’s enough to call a penalty, sometimes it’s not… You just have to take them, and sometimes, you get rewarded with the power play.

“I liked our guy’s response and we want to be sticking up for each other, we want to have that pack mentality, but it’s really important that we’re not the ones taking that extra penalty.”

There is no doubt that the Kings will continue to poke and prod at the Oilers as the series continues. Keeping those retaliations in check will only get more difficult, but if the team can continue to succeed on the scoreboard, it could get easier.

 

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Thatcher Demko injured, out for Game 2 between Canucks and Predators

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Thatcher Demko returned from injury just in time for the start of the Stanley Cup Playoffs but now is injured again.

After the Vancouver Canucks’ victory in Game 1, Demko was not made available to the media as he was “receiving treatment.” This is not unusual, so was not heavily reported at the time. Monday’s practice was turned into an optional skate — just nine players participated — so Demko’s absence did not seem particularly significant.

But when Demko was also missing from Tuesday’s gameday skate, alarm bells started going off.

According to multiple reports — and now the Canucks’ head coach, Rick Tocchet —Demko will not play in Game 2 and is in fact questionable for the rest of their series against the Nashville Predators.

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Demko made 22 saves on 24 shots, none bigger — and potentially injury-inducing — than his first-period save on Anthony Beauvillier where he went into the full splits.

While this is not necessarily where Demko got injured, it would be understandable if it was. Demko still stayed in the game and didn’t seem to be experiencing any difficulties at the time.

Demko is a major difference-maker for the Canucks and his injury casts a pall over the team’s emotional Game 1 victory.

Tocchet confirmed that Demko will not start in Game 2 but said Demko did skate on Monday on his own. He also said that Demko’s injury is unrelated to the knee injury he suffered during the season that caused him to miss five weeks. Instead, Tocchet suggested Demko was day-to-day, leaving open the possibility for his return in the first round.

TSN’s Farhan Lalji, however, has reported that Demko’s injury could indeed be to the same knee, even if it is not the same exact injury.

If Demko does indeed miss the rest of the series, the pressure will be on Casey DeSmith, who had a strong season when called upon intermittently as the team’s backup but struggled when thrust into the number-one role when Demko was injured. Behind DeSmith is rookie Arturs Silovs, who has come through with heroic performances in international competition for Latvia but hasn’t been able to repeat those performances at the NHL level.

DeSmith played one game against the Predators this season, making 26 saves on 28 shots in a 5-2 victory in December.

While DeSmith has limited experience in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, his one appearance was spectacular.

On May 3, 2022, DeSmith had to step in for the injured Tristan Jarry for the Pittsburgh Penguins, starting their first postseason game against the New York Rangers. DeSmith made 48 saves on 51 shots before leaving the game in the second overtime with an injury of his own, with Louis Domingue stepping in to make 17 more saves for the win.

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