Brazil runoff tied 50-50 in Datafolha poll ahead of Sunday

A Datafolha poll taken Oct. 20 to 22 shows President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and challenger Flavio Bolsonaro tied at 50 per cent of valid votes, two days before Brazil’s presidential runoff on Sunday, Oct. 25.

Updated Oct. 23, 2026. This is a developing story and the numbers below come from published polls, not results.

The tie matters because Bolsonaro, a senator for the Liberal Party, led the previous two Datafolha surveys, 52 to 48 per cent on Oct. 8 and 51 to 49 per cent on Oct. 15, according to The Rio Times, which reported the latest poll on Oct. 22. The gap has now closed to zero inside a two-point margin of error.

Datafolha, polling for the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, interviewed 2,154 voters in person. Counting all answers rather than only valid votes, Bolsonaro had 47 per cent and Lula 46 per cent, with 5 per cent blank or null and 2 per cent undecided. The poll is registered with Brazil’s electoral court under number BR-09709/2026.

Other pollsters show the same razor-thin race. The Quaest poll for the Globo network, conducted Oct. 17 to 20, put Bolsonaro at 45 per cent and Lula at 44 per cent of all answers, The Rio Times reported. A telephone poll by Indexa for Broadcast, taken Oct. 20 and 21, had Bolsonaro at 50.6 per cent and Lula at 49.4 per cent of valid votes, with a margin of error of 2.2 points.

Al Jazeera and Reuters reported on Oct. 16 that experts still considered the race a toss-up, with every major poll inside its margin of error. Pollsters call a result inside that margin a statistical tie, meaning the gap is smaller than the survey can reliably measure.

The first round on Oct. 4 was also close. Bolsonaro finished first with 47.03 per cent, or 56,104,503 votes, and Lula took 45.16 per cent, or 53,879,538 votes, a gap of 2,224,965 votes, according to The Rio Times. Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term. Bolsonaro has promised a crackdown on crime and drug trafficking, Al Jazeera reported. His father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, is under house arrest serving a 27-year sentence, Al Jazeera said.

Polling stations open at 8 a.m. and close at 5 p.m. Brasilia time on Sunday, which is 7 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern. Brazil’s electoral court begins publishing results at 5 p.m. Brasilia time, The Rio Times reported. A debate on TV Globo is scheduled for Friday, Oct. 23.

Brazilians abroad vote only for president, at embassies, consulates and other Brazilian offices. The electoral court counts 918,876 registered voters in 134 countries, the largest group of them, 265,437, in the United States, The Rio Times reported. The sources we reviewed did not give a figure for Canada.

For Canada, the outcome bears on trade. Brazil is the largest economy in Mercosur, the South American trade bloc, and Ottawa has been pursuing a deal with it, as we reported in our earlier look at how the runoff tests Canada’s Mercosur trade push. Our earlier coverage of the campaign also includes the narrowing polls and a court order on how Meta treats both candidates.

The winner will serve a four-year term. Official results are expected Sunday evening, and a margin this narrow could mean a long count.

Via The Rio Times, Al Jazeera and Reuters.

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