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Gold Nears Six-Week High on Caution Over Economy, Trade – The Wall Street Journal

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Gold prices are trading close to their highest level in six weeks, as investors remain cautious about the world economy and geopolitics despite record highs in the U.S. stock market.

Gold futures rose 0.3% to $1,485.60 a troy ounce on Monday in New York, extending their advance in December to 1.4%. The haven metal is on course to rise 16% over the course of 2019, which would be its biggest one-year rally since 2010.

“The fact that investors are still holding a decent chunk of gold gives you a good feeling as to how they are literally hedging their bets,” said Altaf Kassam, head of investment strategy for

State Street

Global Advisors in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. “Gold is definitely not looking like a bad place to store some value or have a hedge.”

Gold prices have kept climbing in recent weeks even though improving economic data and President Trump’s provisional trade deal with China have pushed U.S. stocks to a series of all-time highs. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes has also risen, from 1.782% at the start of December to 1.916% Monday. Higher bond yields typically make gold, which pays no interest, less attractive for investors to own.

Gold’s resilience shows that the limited trade pact—which Washington and Beijing haven’t so far signed—hasn’t dispelled concerns about the outlook for global growth. China’s Finance Ministry said Monday that Beijing would cut import tariffs on a range of goods in 2020, as the two sides attempt to complete their so-called phase-one agreement.

“Worries about the state of geopolitics and the world in general haven’t really gone away completely,” said

Rhona O’Connell,

head of market analysis for EMEA and Asia at

INTL FCStone.

“There is still some concern about the fact the deal is yet to be signed,” she said.

Ms. O’Connell thinks gold prices are unlikely to fall significantly in the coming months because speculative investors who made short-term bets on the metal have already exited the market. That has left a “bedrock” of fund managers who intend to own gold for a longer period, she said, adding that demand for physical gold could rise ahead of Lunar New Year on Jan. 25.

David Govett, head of precious metals at London-based brokerage Marex Spectron, agrees. “The market is happily long,” he said. “It’s proper money in there.”

Money managers are still wagering that gold prices will rise, though they have trimmed the size of these bets since late September. As of Dec. 17, investors held 219,268 more long contracts than short contracts, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Friday, up from 56,949 at the start of 2019.

Other precious metals are also having a strong end to the year. Silver rose 0.8% to $17.36 a troy ounce on Monday, while palladium has surged 10% in the fourth quarter.

Still, Mr. Kassam said that accelerating global growth means precious metals are unlikely to rise much further in 2020, barring an unexpected spike in inflation or weakening in the U.S. economy. State Street’s absolute-return strategy recently sold some gold futures and bought commodities such as oil and copper, which Mr. Kassam said are more likely to benefit if the world economy picks up speed next year.

Elsewhere in commodity markets on Monday, natural-gas futures dropped 4.6% to $2.22 a million British thermal units. The decline extends a recent slump and comes after Russia and Ukraine clinched a transit agreement for gas deliveries into Europe, warding off disruptions in the New Year.

U.S. crude-oil futures fell 0.4% to $60.23 a barrel, and copper futures fell 0.7% to $2.81 a pound.

Write to Joe Wallace at Joe.Wallace@wsj.com

Copyright ©2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Economy

US-China Relations Thaw With Groups to Discuss Economic, Financial Issues – Bloomberg

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Economy

U.S., China agree to forge new economic, financial dialogues

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The U.S. Treasury Department announced Friday it had formally established two new working groups to discuss China-U.S. economic and financial issues, a tentative sign that communication is improving between the two countries following a trip to Beijing by Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen this summer.

The new format for regular talks follows years of roiling economic conflict between Beijing and Washington over sanctions, trade restrictions, and the treatment of Chinese and U.S. companies abroad after economic dialogues broke down during the Trump administration.

The working groups will hold regular direct meetings for “frank and substantive discussions on economic and financial policy matters,” the Treasury statement said. It added that the dialogues would also include and “exchange of information on macroeconomic and financial developments.”

The high-level meetings will be led by Yellen on the U.S. side. China’s economic czar, Vice Premier He Lifeng, will oversee the work led by different agencies in Beijing. U.S. Treasury officials will hold dialogues for the economic working group with Beijing’s Finance Ministry, while the financial talks will take place with representatives from China’s Central Bank.

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The new dialogues are part of broader efforts by the White House to reestablish communication channels between Washington and Beijing on a range of geopolitical, security and economic matters following talks between President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Bali last year. Those efforts have been hampered by hot-button issues, including the discovery of a Chinese spy balloon over the continental United States in February and rolling U.S. trade restrictions aimed at limiting Beijing’s access to U.S. technology.

Nonetheless, the two sides have made strides this year. After abruptly canceling a visit over the spy balloon furor, Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Beijing in June. Yellen’s visit in July was followed by Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo’s in August, where she announced that the two sides had agreed to hold an official ongoing dialogue on commercial issues, beginning in early 2024, drawing in individuals from the private sector with the aim of resolving issues over U.S. commercial access to the Chinese market.

The new dialogues agreed to by Yellen and He appear to have a broader scope, but it is unclear how often the meetings will take place. In Friday’s statement, the Treasury Department said they would happen at a “regular cadence.” Chinese official media released a brief statement confirming the establishment of the working groups that was sparse on detail, but said the group plans to hold “regular and irregular” meetings.

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“These Working Groups will serve as important forums to communicate America’s interests and concerns, promote a healthy economic competition between our two countries with a level playing field for American workers and businesses, and advance cooperation on global challenges,” said Yellen in a statement posted on X, the site formerly known as Twitter, on Friday following the Treasury Department announcement.

Regular high-level economic dialogues between Treasury officials and Beijing were mostly dismantled in 2017, when the Trump administration began implementing sweeping tariffs, trade restrictions and sanctions against Beijing — many of which have remained in place or been extended under the current administration.

Before Yellen’s visit in July, no U.S. treasury secretary had visited Beijing since 2019, when then-Secretary Steven Mnuchin and a team of negotiators conducted limited talks following a total breakdown in discussions months before.

While the new working groups signal a thawing in the economic relationship, communication between the two sides remains fragile. Beijing routinely expresses skepticism of U.S. commitments and has accused officials in Washington of failing to follow through on high-level discussions. Officials in Beijing maintain that the United States has arbitrarily broadened trade and economic restrictions to contain China’s economic growth under the guise of national and economic security.

Most recently, Beijing accused the United States of ongoing economic “bullying” after Biden in August signed an executive order to establish a screening mechanism for outbound investments and to restrict U.S. investment in advanced Chinese technologies, including semiconductors.

“President Biden committed to not seeking to ‘decouple’ from China or halt China’s economic development. We urge the U.S. to follow through on that commitment, stop politicizing, instrumentalizing and weaponizing tech and trade issues,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin following the August announcement.

Yellen and other U.S. officials have sought to push ahead with efforts to reopen channels of communication, while warning that the Biden administration will continue to take targeted actions to protect U.S. national security.

“It is vital that we talk, particularly when we disagree,” said Yellen in her statement on X on Friday.

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Economy

Net zero: Will Rishi Sunak’s changes to climate policies save money?

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LONDON — Amid growing international criticism, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has defended watering down key U.K. climate policies.

In a press conference Wednesday, Sunak announced a series of major U-turns on climate policies, including delaying by five years the target to ban sales of new gas and diesel cars — which will now come into force in 2035 rather than 2030 — and a nine-year delay on phasing out gas boilers, which will now come into force in 2035.

Sunak insisted he was not slowing down efforts to combat climate change. But his government’s own climate adviser called the prime minister’s assertion that the U.K. would still succeed in meeting its 2050 net-zero target “wishful thinking.”

Sunak said the changes were about being “pragmatic” and sparing the British public the “unacceptable cost” of net-zero commitments.

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His home secretary, Suella Braverman, told the BBC that the Conservative government was “not going to save the planet by bankrupting British people.”

The government’s Climate Change Committee — independent advisers on cutting carbon emissions — estimates that meeting Britain’s legally binding goal of reaching net zero by 2050 will require an extra $61 billion of investment every year by 2030.

But the committee has said that once the savings from reduced use of fossil fuels are factored in, the overall resource cost of the transition to net zero will be less than 1% of GDP over the next 30 years. By 2044, the committee has said, breaching net zero should become cost-saving, as newer clean technologies are more efficient than those they are replacing.

Criticism at home and abroad

Sunak’s overhaul of his green targets has been met with criticism at home and internationally.

Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore described the changes as “shocking and disappointing” and “not what the world needs from the United Kingdom.”

Some in the prime minister’s own Conservative Party warned that the changes risk damaging Britain’s reputation as a global leader on the climate.

Sunak decided not to attend the United Nations Climate Summit in New York this week, making him the first British prime minister to miss a U.N. General Assembly in a decade.

Former Conservative minister Alok Sharma, who chaired the 2021 COP26 U.N. Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, told the BBC Wednesday’s announcement had been met with “consternation” from international colleagues.

“My concern is whether people now look to us and say, ‘Well, if the U.K. is starting to row back on some of these policies, maybe we should do the same,'” he said.

In the U.K., Sunak’s announcement prompted a backlash from climate activists, car manufacturers and the energy industry.

In a statement, U.K. Ford chair Lisa Brankin said, “Our business needs three things from the U.K. government: ambition, commitment and consistency. A relaxation of 2030 would undermine all three.”

And the chief executive of one of Britain’s largest energy suppliers, Eon UK, said the move was a “misstep on many levels.”

Sunak’s pivot occurs as extreme weather due to climate change is growing more frequent

Sunak said the announcement was part of his desire for a more “honest debate” about what reaching net zero will actually mean for the British public.

But he has come under criticism from the British media for claiming to scrap measures that some have pointed out never existed as formal government policy in the first place, such as taxing meat and requiring households to have seven different waste and recycling bins. (The government had previously said it wanted to standardize waste collection in England, although the plan was subsequently delayed and never became policy).

Political analysts say Sunak’s gamble marks a shift for the prime minister, who has spent his first year in office largely steadying the ship after the tumultuous governments of his predecessors Liz Truss and Boris Johnson. With a general election coming up next year, they say, Sunak has chosen net zero as a dividing line.

Sunak’s pivot away from more aggressive action on global warming occurs as extreme weather is becoming more frequent and more intense around the world, including the U.K., because of the effects of climate change. Scientists say this will continue as long as humans continue to emit planet-warming greenhouse gases.

In the U.K., temperatures hit 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) for the first time on record in July 2022. The World Weather Attribution network says this would have been “basically impossible” without climate change.

During this week’s climate summit in New York, London Mayor Sadiq Khan said the capital faced what he called the “incredibly worrying” prospect of seeing 45-degree Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit) days in the “forseeable future.”

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