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Economy

Nova Scotia's stimulus plan a good start in rebuilding devastated economy, economist says – TheChronicleHerald.ca

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HALIFAX, N.S. —

A $230-million stimulus program expected to employ 2,000 Nova Scotians and rebuild important infrastructure assets is a needed emergency measure to rebuild an economy devastated by the COVID-19 crisis, but there’s plenty of pain still to come, warns a Halifax economist.

“For a province like Nova Scotia, $230 million of debt is significant but on the other hand we’re still focused on containing the economic pain that’s been caused by COVID-19 and I think that’s the first matter of focus,” said Melvin Cross, a Dalhousie University economics professor. “If you have 2,000 people otherwise unemployed and have them doing something that will add to the assets of the province then such a program is worth considering.”

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Premier Stephen Mcneil unveiled the provincially funded plan on Wednesday when he announced the province’s economy would completely reopen on June 5. The provincial monies will pay for projects across the province, such as roads, bridges, school repairs and museum, courthouse, and hospital renovations. Statistics Canada reported earlier this month that 50,000 jobs were lost in Nova Scotia in April.

The professor said the program is a reasonable first response in addressing “the economic pain we see people experiencing.”

“Will we have more discussions about the details of this program and have some dissatisfaction with it, probably. That doesn’t mean the concept is unsound.”

Cross said there’s a possibility that the Bank of Canada would pony up cash to pay a portion of the stimulus program, much better than the alternative, he added.

“It would be unwise to increase tax rates in the economy that’s already lumbered with unemployment and businesses struggling to deal with the consequences of COVID19.”

Scotiabank released a report earlier this month predicting Nova Scotia could feel less economic pain caused by COVID-19 compared to other provinces.

The report said besides Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia is the only province likely to avoid record deficits in the 2021 fiscal year. Yet it predicts Nova Scotia will have a roughly $970-million deficit.

While the government has a key role to play in assisting businesses and rebuilding the economy there’s a limited pot of money available, said the professor. He likened the province’s predicament to fighting a raging fire with only a limited water source available.

“If we drained too much water out of the lake and you have to stop, well do you have the fire controlled yet?” said Cross. “Well, you say at what point do you decide it’s not appropriate to use water to put out the fire?”

The Chronicle Herald inquired with the province about the economic consequences of the stimulus plan, including whether it’s now in a deficit and if money has to be drawn from other government departments to pay for the program, but did not get answers to those questions.

Cross said as long as there’s no effective treatment for COVID-19, the province and country can expect to feel significant economic pain.

“We might get a bit of relief this summer If COVID-19 acts the way better understood flu viruses act but the epidemiologists tell us that we must be prepared to manage a second wave of COVID.”

Patrick Sullivan, CEO of the Halifax Chamber of Commerce, said he was pleased with the province’s decision to reopen those businesses closed during the lockdown, including restaurants, hairdressers and gyms. A $25-million Small Business Reopening and Support Grant was also announced on Wednesday for eligible businesses, nonprofits, charities and social enterprises to open safely. That amounts to $5,000 grants to businesses to purchase public health equipment necessary to reopen their business; money that’s badly needed and appreciated, said Sullivan.

“But there’s still concern restaurants will only be reopening at 50 per cent capacity and there will likely be reduced tourism this summer. We appreciate the need to operate safely because we don’t want this to happen again. “

Because of restrictions on international travel, tourism operators in the province face a daunting summer season. He’s encouraging Nova Scotians to choose a staycation to support the sector and advocating for the government to introduce a $2,000 accommodations tax credit to incentivize people to stay home.

He said businesses are in need of plenty more support but said there are still assistance programs available to small businesses through ACOA and Community Business Development Corporation. Sullivan said the federal Canada Emergency Commercial Rent Assistance Program, offering to cover 75 per cent of rent for small businesses, is flawed and has limited uptake largely because it’s optional for landlords. He said financial assistance should be made available to the tenant, not the landlord.

In the end, he couldn’t predict how many businesses in Halifax might be forced to close.

“I don’t know and don’t think anyone does right now I think the majority of businesses have tried to get their way through this to get a reopening day.”

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Economy

Japanese government maintains view that economy is in moderate recovery – ForexLive

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Economy

Can falling interest rates improve fairness in the economy? – The Globe and Mail

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The ‘poor borrower’ narrative rules in media coverage of the Bank of Canada and high interest rates, and that’s appropriate.

A lot of people have been financially slammed by the rate hikes of the past couple of years, which have made it much more expensive to carry a mortgage, lines of credit and other borrowing. The latest from the Bank of Canada suggests rate cuts will come as soon as this summer, which on the whole would be a welcome development. It’s not just borrowers who need relief – the boarder economy has slowed to a crawl because of high borrowing costs.

But high rates are also a big win for some people. Specifically, those who have little or no debt and who have a significant amount of money sitting in savings products and guaranteed investment certificates. The country’s most well-off people, in other words.

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Lower rates will mean diminished returns for savers and less interest paid by borrowers. It’s a stretch to say lower rates will improve financial inequality, but they do add a little more fairness to our financial system.

Wealth inequality is often presented as the chasm between well-off people able to pay for houses, vehicles, trips and high-end restaurant meals and those who are driving record use of food banks and living in tent cities. High interest rates and inflation have given us more nuance in wealth inequality. People fortunate enough to have bought houses in recent years are staggering as they try to manage mortgage payments that have risen by hundreds of dollars a month. You can see their struggles in rising numbers of late payments and debt defaults.

Rates are expected to fall in a measured, gradual way, which means their impact on financial inequality won’t be an instant gamechanger. But if the Bank of Canada cuts 0.25 of a percentage point off the overnight rate in June and again in July, many borrowers will start noticing how much less interest they’re paying, and savers will find themselves earning less.


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Rob’s personal finance reading list

Snowballs and avalanches

A look at two strategies for paying off debt – the debt avalanche and the debt snowball. I’ll go with the avalanche.

How not to ruin your kitchen countertop

Anyone who has renovated a kitchen lately knows how expensive stone countertops can be. Look after yours by protecting it from a few common kitchen items.

What you need to know about stock market corrections

A helpful explanation of stock market corrections. It seems an opportune time to look at corrections, given how volatile stocks have been lately. Like scouts, investors should always be prepared.

Put that snack back

Food inflation requires more careful grocery shopping. Here’s a roundup of food products – cookies, snacks, ice cream – that don’t taste as good as they used to. Food companies have always adjusted their recipes from time to time. Is this happening more because of inflation’s impact on raw material prices? A U.S. list – most products are available are familiar to Canadians, too.


Ask Rob

Q: I have Tangerine children’s accounts for my kids. Can you suggest a better alternative?

A: The rate on the Tangerine children’s account is 0.8 per cent, which actually compares well to the big banks and their comparable accounts. For kids aged 13 and up, check out something new called the JA Money Card.

Do you have a question for me? Send it my way. Sorry I can’t answer every one personally. Questions and answers are edited for length and clarity.


Tools and guides

A comprehensive guide on how to build a good credit score.


In the social sphere

Social Media: An offbeat way of fighting high food costs

Watch: Is now the hardest time ever to buy a home?

Money-Free Zone: Singer-songwriter Maggie Rogers has a new album called Don’t Forget Me and it’s generating some buzz because it’s a great listen. Smooth vocals and a laid back countryish vibe that hits a faster pace on one of my favourite cuts, Drunk.


More PF from The Globe

– He keeps ‘a few thousand in crisp new bills’ at home – is that a good idea?

– The pension pivot: Employers recognizing that workers need help with debt as much as retirement

– Her bond ETF is ‘a dud and not promising at all’ – should she sell?

– Despite high fees, Canadians remain perplexingly loyal to mutual funds. Here’s why


More Rob Carrick and money coverage

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Economy

LIVE: Freeland joins panel on Indigenous economy – CTV News Montreal

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LIVE: Freeland joins panel on Indigenous economy  CTV News Montreal

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