Trump approval at 31% to 36% in final polls before midterms

Polls released in the final weeks before the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections put President Donald Trump’s approval rating between 31 and 36 per cent in most surveys, with Democrats leading the generic House ballot by as much as 11 points.

Democrats need a net gain of only three House seats to take control of the chamber, according to Yahoo News and the New York Sun, which makes the size of that lead the central question in the final nine days of the campaign.

The lowest reading came from Reuters/Ipsos poll, which reported on Oct. 19 that 31 per cent of 1,679 U.S. adults approved of Trump’s performance and 66 per cent disapproved, with a margin of error of two percentage points, according to a table of recent polls compiled by Forbes. Al Jazeera also reported the 31 per cent figure and described it as a record low in that poll.

The New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted Oct. 12 to 19 among 3,494 likely voters with a margin of error of 1.9 points, found 36 per cent approval and 59 per cent disapproval, Forbes reported. The New York Sun reported the same survey gave Democrats an 11-point lead on the generic House ballot, which would be the largest nationwide popular-vote margin for either party since 2008.

Other recent surveys fall in a similar range, though not all. CNN/SSRS, polling 1,701 U.S. adults on Oct. 15 to 18 with a margin of error of 4.1 points, found 32 per cent approval. AP-NORC, surveying 2,140 adults on Sept. 24 to 28 with a margin of error of 2.9 points, found 31 per cent. CNBC, polling 1,000 registered voters on Oct. 14 to 18 with a margin of error of 3.1 points, found 40 per cent, and Harvard CAPS/Harris, surveying 2,200 registered voters on Sept. 26 to 28, found 42 per cent, according to Forbes.

Averages smooth out those differences. The Silver Bulletin average put Trump at 36.9 per cent approval and 60.3 per cent disapproval as of Oct. 23, Yahoo News reported, and showed Democrats ahead on the generic ballot by more than nine points. A separate tracker, U.S. Polling Data, listed the generic ballot at Democrats plus 7.4 points.

The economy is the weakest area. CNBC found 34 per cent approved of Trump’s handling of the economy, an all-time low in that poll, and 65 per cent disapproved. AP-NORC found 17 per cent approved of his handling of the cost of living. Al Jazeera reported that the Washington Post/ABC/Ipsos poll found seven in 10 respondents said gasoline is becoming unaffordable, and that an NBC poll found 71 per cent believe the country is on the wrong track while 55 per cent would vote for a Democrat if the election were held that day.

Polls are snapshots, not predictions. Yahoo News noted that Democrats led the generic ballot by 7.6 points at this stage in 2018 and gained 41 House seats, while Republicans led by 2.9 points at this stage in 2022 and gained nine. It said Democrats are favoured to flip the Senate, where they hold 47 seats and need 51, “unless the polls are wrong.” A 50-50 split would give Vice-President JD Vance the tiebreaking vote.

For Canada, the outcome matters mainly through trade. The White House has said tariff changes affecting Canada take effect Oct. 30, as we reported on Oct. 23, and a U.S. importer has sued over the 50 per cent tariffs on Canadian goods, as we reported on Oct. 20. CBC News has also reported that the United States declined to extend the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) in its joint review. Which party controls Congress will shape how much scrutiny any tariff or trade decision faces on Capitol Hill. Individual Senate contests are also close, including the race in Iowa that we covered in a poll earlier this month.

Election Day is Nov. 3. The Federal Reserve announces its next interest-rate decision on Oct. 28, five days before voters go to the polls.

Via Forbes, Yahoo News, Al Jazeera and the New York Sun.

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