When Meta announced this month it would spend more than $13 billion on a 1-gigawatt AI data centre in Sturgeon County, north of Edmonton, coverage focused on the investment figure and the jobs it promises. Less examined: the facility is set to start operating in the next two to three years, while the power plant meant to supply it — the $4.6-billion, 932-megawatt Greenlight Electricity Centre being built by Pembina Pipeline, Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners and Kineticor — won’t generate electricity until the second half of 2030. Capital Power’s own 250-megawatt supply agreement with Meta doesn’t kick in until the second half of 2028. For roughly two years, the data centre will draw on Alberta’s existing grid and other suppliers before either dedicated source comes online.
That timing gap matters because of what else is happening to Alberta’s power market. At TransAlta’s March investors’ day, an executive projected wholesale prices in the $85-to-$100-per-megawatt-hour range by 2029; Capital Power’s own CEO wouldn’t rule out $80 to $90 by early 2028. Both figures are roughly triple the $32 per megawatt-hour Alberta averaged in the first quarter of 2026 — a jump both companies attribute directly to data centre demand. The province’s own grid operator, AESO, has capped data-centre allocations at 1,200 megawatts even though developers have applied for more than 20 gigawatts combined, a mismatch regulators are still working through.
Alberta’s response, Bill 12, imposes a 2% levy on computing equipment in grid-connected data centres of 75 megawatts or larger starting December 31, 2026, explicitly meant to stop those costs from landing solely on residential and small-business ratepayers. Whether that levy — offset by a corporate tax credit — actually holds power bills down before 2029, or simply softens the increase already priced in by the companies building the plants, is the piece of this story still unresolved.
Sourcing: Meta investment and Greenlight/Capital Power timeline via CBC News, BNN Bloomberg and Capital Power’s own press release. Price projections via Canada’s National Observer and DeSmog, both citing TransAlta’s March investors’ day and Capital Power earnings call. AESO allocation cap via Medicine Hat News. Bill 12 levy details via Gowling WLG and Bennett Jones legal bulletins.
