Immigration levels plan to come in Thursday’s budget

OTTAWA – Prime Minister Mark Carney’s updated immigration levels plan is set to be unveiled in Thursday’s federal budget, multiple government sources told CTV News on Nov. 3.

The plan will set new targets for permanent and temporary residents. Last year the government lowered and stabilized permanent resident admissions at 380,000 a year from 2026 to 2028. Targets for new temporary resident arrivals were cut to 385,000 in 2026 and 370,000 in 2027 and 2028, CTV reported.

The update follows a sharp slowdown in growth. Statistics Canada estimated the population at 41,798,407 on July 1, 2026, up 189,425 people or 0.5 per cent from a year earlier, the lowest July-to-July growth since 1944-45, according to CTV’s reading of the agency’s data. Temporary residents peaked at 7.6 per cent of the population in October 2024.

Carney has sent mixed signals. He told the New York Times in September that Canada will eventually resume a “controlled increase” in population once the system is fully under control, without giving specifics, then insisted weeks later the government will “not budge” from keeping levels sustainable.

Immigration Minister Lena Metlege Diab said in October that Canada has “taken a step backwards on immigration.” She said the government has an “ambitious agenda” and “we do need people.” At that time she announced changes effective Nov. 3 to Express Entry that award extra points to high-wage earners, which we covered in our Express Entry explainer.

The Conservatives want deeper cuts. Immigration critic Michelle Rempel Garner said in September the party will oppose any effort to increase immigration and expects levels to be set “much, much lower.” We detailed that position in our report on the Conservative demands, and examined the government’s shift in Carney’s population pivot.

RBC’s skills policy lead Jackie Pichette wrote in September that Canada should stabilize population growth at one per cent and rebalance admissions. The Bank of Canada said in October that an aging population and lower immigration are reshaping the economy by shrinking the workforce.

The numbers have not been confirmed by the government. Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne tables the budget on Nov. 5, and the levels figures will be official only then.

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