Ontario EI rolls edge up as jobless count falls 75,000

Ontario had 185,210 people collecting regular Employment Insurance benefits in August 2026, slightly more than a year earlier, even though Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey counted 75,000 fewer unemployed people in the province over the same 12 months, according to seasonally adjusted figures released on Oct. 22.

The gap matters because EI is meant to track job loss. Nationally, the number of regular EI recipients fell 2.9 per cent from a year earlier to 541,320, the lowest monthly total since at least July 2025, according to Statistics Canada table 14-10-0011-01. Ontario and British Columbia were the only provinces where the count went up.

Statistics Canada updated its EI tables for August on Thursday without a written analysis, noting in The Daily only that the data were available and that September figures will follow on Nov. 18. Canada News Media found no other outlet that had reported the provincial breakdown by Thursday evening.

In Ontario, the number of regular beneficiaries rose by 1,220, or 0.7 per cent, from 183,990 in August 2025. Over the same period, the Labour Force Survey shows the number of unemployed Ontarians fell from 685,900 to 610,900. Statistics Canada puts the standard error of that year-over-year change at about 28,100, which means the drop is well outside the survey’s normal sampling noise.

Put another way, regular EI recipients equalled about 30 per cent of Ontario’s unemployed in August 2026, up from about 27 per cent a year earlier. Across Canada the same ratio rose from about 35 per cent to 37 per cent, because the number of unemployed people fell faster than the number of EI recipients. Nationally, the Labour Force Survey counted 1,459,500 unemployed people in August, down from 1,590,100 a year earlier.

British Columbia moved in a different direction. Its EI rolls rose 5.0 per cent to 60,680, while its unemployed count also rose, by about 3.0 per cent to 204,000, so the two measures agree that the province’s job market has softened.

Source: Statistics Canada, table 14-10-0011-01, seasonally adjusted. Canada total includes the territories.

The national figures also split sharply by age. Regular EI recipients aged 15 to 24 fell 11.8 per cent from a year earlier to 44,600, and those aged 25 to 54 fell 3.8 per cent to 347,730. Recipients aged 55 and older were the only group to rise, up 2.4 per cent to 148,980.

The data do not say why Ontario’s EI rolls held up. Two factors could help explain it. The first is the rules: since 2025, Ottawa has waived the one-week EI waiting period, let laid-off workers collect benefits without first using up severance, and given long-tenured workers up to 20 extra weeks of regular benefits. The federal government said in March it expected 632,000 claims to use the waiting-period waiver and 43,500 to use the extra weeks. Those measures were extended again past Oct. 10, and according to a bulletin from law firm Hicks Morley the waiver and the severance rule now run to Oct. 9, 2027, and the extra weeks to June 12, 2027.

The second factor is the kind of job being lost. Ontario’s steel and auto industries have been at the centre of the tariff fight, with Stelco announcing in September up to 500 temporary layoffs in Hamilton and Nanticoke, Ont., and Prime Minister Mark Carney and Premier Doug Ford announcing an $8.7-billion plan for steel, autos and mining on Oct. 21. Long-tenured, unionized industrial workers are more likely to qualify for EI than young or part-time workers, so a shift in who is losing jobs could raise the EI count even when total unemployment falls. Statistics Canada’s EI tables by industry and occupation, and Employment and Social Development Canada’s claims data, would be needed to test that.

For a worker, the practical message is that the EI system is carrying a larger share of Ontario’s unemployed than it did a year ago, while young job seekers, who are less likely to qualify, are leaving the EI rolls faster than any other group. The national unemployment rate was 6.5 per cent in September, and the economy lost 68,000 jobs that month, according to the latest Labour Force Survey; our province-by-province table has the details. EI data for September, which will show whether those job losses reached the benefit rolls, are due on Nov. 18.

How we did this: Canada News Media compared Statistics Canada’s seasonally adjusted counts of regular EI beneficiaries (table 14-10-0011-01) with seasonally adjusted Labour Force Survey estimates of unemployed people (table 14-10-0287-01) for August 2025 and August 2026, the latest month available in both. The two surveys measure different things: EI counts people receiving benefits during the survey reference week, and the Labour Force Survey estimates everyone looking for work, whether or not they qualify. The ratios in this story are our own calculation and are meant to show direction, not an official coverage rate. Program details come from Employment and Social Development Canada’s March 20, 2026, release and the Hicks Morley bulletin.

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