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Bank of Canada not seeing ‘alarm bells’ in housing market despite mortgage pain

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The Bank of Canada is not yet concerned about the impact of rapidly rising mortgage rates on the overall health of the country’s housing market.

That was the message from governor Tiff Macklem when he was asked after a speech to the Toronto Region Board of Trade on Thursday about how the central bank is thinking about the future of Canada’s housing market.

Macklem said the bank’s rapid increase in interest rates since March 2022 — the policy rate stands at 4.5 per cent following two consecutive decisions to hold — has effectively cooled housing activity and driven double-digit declines in home prices across many markets.

He told the crowd that the central bank sees the housing correction continuing in the months to come, though some markets are already stabilizing and even seeing prices and activity tick back up.

Macklem acknowledged, however, that the cost of slowing the economy by raising the cost of borrowing — a sustained effort to get inflation back to the Bank of Canada’s two per cent target — has made life harder for many homeowners.

Those with variable rate mortgages who purchased homes at the peak of prices during the pandemic, for instance, as well as those renewing their fixed mortgages in today’s higher interest rate environment, are in many cases facing much higher monthly payments.

“We are acutely aware that some Canadians have been very squeezed by the interest rate increases,” Macklem said Thursday.

The central bank head also flagged that mortgage delinquencies, which were quite low during the pandemic, are starting to tick back up again, though he said this was more a normalization than a cause for concern.

“They are coming up, but they’re still only just getting back to pre-pandemic levels. So that is something to watch,” he says.

Despite the current weakness in the real estate industry, Macklem also said that Canada’s housing market has “strong underlying fundamentals” that will sustain demand in the sector longer-term.

Strong levels of immigration, in particular, will help to keep Canada’s housing sector afloat through the current period of higher interest rates, he said.

Even if there is a surge in Canadians who are unable to make mortgage payments on their homes, Macklem sought to assuage concerns that it would spur a domino effect through the economy.

“I don’t want to say that there aren’t some individuals who are really feeling the pain,” he said.

“But if you look at the household sector overall, we’re not seeing alarm bells.”

 

Bank of Canada monitoring global banking stress

Meanwhile, Macklem said the central bank is ready to step in if stress in the global banking system affects Canada, but emphasized it won’t back off from its inflation fight as it works to bring inflation down to its two per cent target.

Macklem addressed the recent stress in the global banking system that was set off by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the United States.

“Here in Canada the spillover effects have been muted, reflecting the financial stability we are known for internationally,” he said. “But financial stability risks remain.”

Macklem concedes that financial instability raises the odds of a sharper economic downturn but says achieving both financial stability and price stability is important and that the two are related.

The governor says the central bank has separate tools to address both mandates and that the Bank of Canada will take into consideration the interacting effects between financial stress and inflation.

If financial stress leads to tighter borrowing conditions that make loans more expensive and harder to get, he says the governing council would take this into consideration when setting the policy rate.

“In the current environment, monetary policy has already tightened financial conditions,” Macklem said.

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“But if financial stress were to lead to more tightening than expected and if this were to persist, we would need to take this into consideration as we set the policy rate to achieve our inflation target.”

Though inflation has fallen significantly from its peak of 8.1 per cent last summer, Macklem stresses that the Bank of Canada’s job is not done just yet and there is work to do before it can move below three per cent.

The Bank of Canada paused its aggressive rate hiking cycle earlier this year to monitor the effects of its previous rate hikes on price growth. So far, inflation has been falling fast enough to keep the Bank of Canada on the sidelines, but the central bank is keeping the door open to more rate hikes if needed.

“If we start to see signs that inflation is likely to get stuck materially above our two per cent target, we are prepared to raise rates further,” Macklem said.

— with files from The Canadian Press

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Canucks winger Joshua to miss training camp following cancer diagnosis

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Vancouver Canucks winger Dakota Joshua has announced he’ll miss the start of training camp following surgery for testicular cancer.

Joshua said in a statement posted to social media by the team Tuesday that he felt a lump on one of his testicles this summer and later had surgery to successfully remove the tumour.

The 28-year-old from Dearborn, Mich., said he plans on returning to play “as soon as possible” and is “working hard every day” to rejoin his teammates.

Joshua said the last several weeks have been “extremely challenging” and encouraged men to get checked regularly for testicular cancer.

The six-foot-three, 206-pound forward had a career-high 18 goals and 14 assists in 63 games for the Canucks last season and signed a new four-year, US$13-million deal with Vancouver at the end of June.

The Canucks are set to open their training camp in Penticton, B.C., on Thursday.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Toronto FC faces tough challenge as defending MLS champion Columbus comes to town

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TORONTO – Coach John Herdman isn’t putting too much stock in the fact that Toronto FC, since losing 4-0 in Columbus on July 6, has posted a better league record than the defending MLS champion.

Toronto, which beat visiting Austin 2-1 on Saturday, has won four of six league outings (4-2-0) since that setback at Lower.com Field while the Crew are 3-2-2.

“I don’t put any credence (in that),” said Herdman. “I just look at their squad and I salivate.”

Its easy to see why.

Columbus provided a league-high five players to the MLS all-star game on its home field in July in defenders Rudy Camacho and Steven Moreira, midfielder/captain Darlington Nagbe and forwards Cucho Hernandez and Diego Rossi.

Herdman sees layers of talent behind those all-stars.

“You see the way that they’re able to almost carbon-copy players. One comes in, another goes out … and they feel like they have a very similar profile. So to be able to take (Christian) Ramirez out and then bring (Canadian forward Jacen) Russell-Rowe in as a power forward, you look and go ‘Whoa, that’s good to have.'”

Federico Bernardeschi was Toronto’s lone all-star.

Columbus (14-5-8) comes to BMO Field on Wednesday in third place in the Eastern Conference, five places and 14 points ahead of Toronto (11-15-3). A playoff position already clinched, the Crew are hoping to leapfrog Cincinnati into second spot.

Coach Wilfried Nancy is looking forward to matching wits against Herdman.

“John is going to cook (up) something,” the Frenchman said with a belly laugh. “I know John. When we played a game in (the) pre-season, it wasn’t a pre-season game. It was a real game. But this is John. That’s why I like him, because he’s intense all the time.”

“They’re going to try to go all-in. They’re going to try to press us, they’re going to try to match us,” he added. “They know exactly the way we want to play so we’ll have to be clever and creative also.”

Herdman, meanwhile, says TFC will have to play error-free football.

While the Crew have failed to score in their last two outings (a 4-0 loss to visiting Seattle and 0-0 draw at rival FC Cincinnati), Toronto is hurting in its backline.

Nicksoen Gomis and Henry Wingo both left the Austin game early with hamstring injuries with Herdman estimating that Gomis will be out three to four weeks and Wingo 10-12 days. Veteran Kevin Long missed the Austin game after tweaking his hamstring in training and will undergo a fitness test ahead of the game.

Shane O’Neill, meanwhile, is suspended for yellow-card accumulation.

“A tricky situation,” said Herdman.

The Crew are a formidable opponent.

Columbus is tied with Real Salt Lake for fifth in the league in averaging 1.93 goals a game. Only Inter Miami (2.32), Portland Timbers (2.00), Los Angeles Galaxy (1.97) and Colorado Rapids (1.96) score more.

And Columbus boasts the league’s stingiest defence, conceding 1.04 goals a game. In contrast, the Toronto defence is tied for 22nd at 1.76 goals a game.

Toronto has conceded 51 goals, 23 more than Columbus, which has collected more points (7-3-4, 25 points) on the road in league play this season than Toronto has at home (7-7-0, 21 points).

Columbus’ roster also includes Canadian wingback Mo Farsi, who scored in the July win over Toronto.

The Columbus game is the first of four in an 11-day stretch that will see TFC club visit Colorado on Saturday, Vancouver on Sept. 25 in the Canadian Championship final and Chicago on Sept. 28. Toronto will then close out the regular season at home to the New York Red Bulls on Oct. 2 and Inter Miami on Oct. 5.

If the playoffs were to start tomorrow, Toronto would face ninth-place D.C. United in a wild-card matchup with the winner advancing to take on the East’s top seed — currently Miami — in the best-of-three first round.

Herdman would like a different scenario, with his eyes set on overtaking seventh-place Charlotte, which has two points and a game in hand over Toronto. The seventh-place side takes on No. 2 — currently Cincinnati — in the first round.

“We’re looking up, not down at the moment,” said Herdman. “It’s a good motivation for the lads to see that next level on the table. And it has been raised. If we’re able to get to that point, it means you’re not headed down to Miami in the heat, which is a tough place to go.”

“We’ll take whatever comes,” he added. “But the critical part is to get into these playoffs. That’s the key mission at the moment.”

Toronto has not made the post-season since 2020 when, after finishing second overall in the Supporters’ Shield standings, it was upset by Nashville after extra time at the first hurdle.

Follow @NeilMDavidson on X platform, formerly known as Twitter

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024

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Dolphins place Tua Tagovailoa on injured reserve after latest concussion

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MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. (AP) — The Miami Dolphins placed Tua Tagovailoa on injured reserve Tuesday after the quarterback was diagnosed with his third concussion in two years.

Tagovailoa will be sidelined for at least four games. He will be eligible to return in Week 8 when the Dolphins host Arizona, but has to complete a series of tests and assessments required by the NFL’s concussion protocol before he can return to the field.

Tagovailoa was hurt last Thursday night when he collided with Buffalo defensive back Damar Hamlin. He ran for a first down and then initiated the contact by lowering his shoulder into Hamlin instead of sliding.

Players from both teams immediately motioned that Tagovailoa was hurt, and as he lay on the turf the quarterback exhibited some signs typically associated with a traumatic brain injury. He remained down on the field for a couple of minutes, got to his feet and walked to the sideline. The Dolphins diagnosed him with a concussion a few minutes later.

Coach Mike McDaniel has since cautioned against speculation on the quarterback’s future, stressing that he’s more focused on Tagovailoa getting healthy than what this latest concussion means for the team or for his career. Tagovailoa this week began the process of consulting neurologists about his health amid reports that he has no plans to retire.

Others around the NFL have offered their opinions on Tagovailoa’s future, including Raiders coach Antonio Pierce, who suggested he should retire.

“As far as Tua’s career is concerned, I think it’s an utmost priority of mine for Tua to speak on Tua’s career,” McDaniel said Monday. “Reports are reports. As far as I’m concerned, I’m just worried about the human being and where that’s at day to day. I’ll let Tua be the champion of his own career.”

McDaniel said Tagovailoa was at the team’s practice facility on Monday, greeting teammates and working with trainers.

“He’s doing good, man. Talked to him, he’s in good spirits,” receiver Jaylen Waddle said Monday. “(He’s) got the team in good spirits and everybody praying for him and hoping (for his) health.”

Head injuries have become a familiar, scary occurrence throughout Tagovailoa’s career.

In a September 2022 game against the Bills, he took a hit from linebacker Matt Milano, which caused him to slam to the ground. He appeared disoriented afterward and stumbled as he tried to get to his feet. He was cleared to return to that game and later said it was a back injury that caused the stumble. He was not diagnosed with a concussion.

Four days later, he got hit again during a Thursday night game at Cincinnati in which he was briefly knocked unconscious and was taken off the field on a stretcher. As he lay on the turf, his fingers appeared to display the “fencing response,” an involuntary motion typically associated with a brain injury. That time, he was placed in the concussion protocol.

The NFL and the players’ union made changes to the concussion protocol after those two incidents with Tagovailoa. Players who have problems with balance or stability are now prohibited from returning to a game.

Tagovailoa briefly considered retirement, but instead returned and studied ways to better protect himself on the field, including taking jiu-jitsu classes ahead of the 2023 season.

Tagovailoa has said he spoke to numerous neurologists who told him they did not believe he would be more susceptible to head injuries than any other player moving forward, nor would he be at a higher risk for chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE), the brain disease associated with repeated blows to the head. He was also diagnosed with a concussion while in college at Alabama.

With Tagovailoa sidelined, the Dolphins will go with backup Skylar Thompson when play at Seattle on Sunday. Miami also signed Tyler Huntley off the Ravens’ practice squad.

___

AP NFL:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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