Calgary-Shaw byelection results: who won and what’s next

NDP candidate Kyle Campbell won the Sept. 14, 2026, Calgary-Shaw byelection, taking a longtime conservative seat from the United Conservative Party by 591 votes, according to official results. Former premier Jason Kenney and other conservatives blamed the loss on Alberta’s separation referendum, which voters rejected on Oct. 19.

Updated Oct. 23, 2026, with official byelection results and the referendum outcome.

Elections Alberta confirmed Campbell’s win on Sept. 24. Campbell received 7,464 votes to 6,873 for UCP candidate Mike Derry, while Progressive Tory Kyle Joseph had 977, Alberta Liberal John Roggeveen 602 and Independent Rolly Ashdown 82, CTV News reported.

Turnout was 35 per cent, with 15,998 ballots cast from 45,680 eligible voters. In the 2023 general election, 63.3 per cent of voters in the riding cast a ballot. Advance polls drew more than 43 per cent of the byelection votes.

The south Calgary riding, created in 1986, had elected the NDP only once before, in the 2015 wave that brought Rachel Notley to power. The UCP won it by nearly 3,400 votes in 2023. The seat opened when former cabinet minister Rebecca Schulz resigned in May.

The flip left the UCP with 47 of 87 seats in the legislature, the NDP with 39 and the Progressive Tories with one, Global News reported.

Kenney, who represented south Calgary provincially and federally, posted on X early the next morning that “a vote to separate is a vote to help the NDP win the next provincial election.” He argued the referendum debate was pushing pro-Canada conservatives away from the governing party.

Other conservative voices agreed. Strategist Ken Boessenkool, a signatory of the 2001 Alberta “firewall” letter, called the result a rebuke of the referendum. Michael Solberg, a former aide to Stephen Harper, said candidates who back separation cannot win. From the other side, pro-independence commentator Cory Morgan said Smith had angered her base by trying to play both sides of the unity question, keeping supporters home.

Smith’s office rejected that reading. Spokesperson Sam Blackett blamed a split conservative vote and low turnout, pointing to the Progressive Tory campaign, and said conservatives must stay united to avoid an NDP government. Progressive Tory Leader Peter Guthrie said his party could not split a conservative vote because the UCP was no longer conservative.

NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi said after the win that there are no safe conservative seats in Calgary. He and Campbell said voters raised the referendum at the door, along with health care, education and affordability. Political scientist Lori Williams of Mount Royal University called it a significant loss for Smith but cautioned that byelections offer limited lessons.

Five weeks later, Albertans gave their answer on separation. About 75 per cent voted on Oct. 19 to remain in Canada rather than start a process toward a binding vote on leaving, according to early counts, and Elections Alberta plans to release final results on Oct. 29. Smith said Albertans voted for a stronger Alberta in a united Canada and has ruled out a binding separation referendum while she is premier.

The vote has not ended the pressure on the premier. Guthrie said Smith cannot survive the fallout, while separatist organizer Jeff Rath is seeking a special UCP meeting to test her leadership. Smith has told separatists in her party to accept its pro-Canada stance or join another party.

Campbell will represent Calgary-Shaw in the legislature until the next provincial general election.

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