China’s September exports jump 36.3%, surplus hits $133.5B

China’s exports rose 36.3 per cent in September from a year earlier, and its monthly trade surplus reached US$133.53 billion, customs data released Oct. 14, 2026, showed, leaving the country on track to beat last year’s record surplus.

Updated Oct. 14, 2026. Developing: the figures are China’s preliminary customs data as reported by wire services.

The surplus for the first nine months of 2026 stands at US$938.11 billion, Reuters reported. China’s full-year surplus reached a record US$1.189 trillion in 2025 and first topped US$1 trillion in November of that year, Reuters said.

Exports grew faster than August’s 25.0 per cent and well above the 25.5 per cent forecast in the Reuters poll. It was the quickest pace since February, when growth was 39.6 per cent, Reuters said. Imports rose 31.0 per cent, against a forecast of 24.5 per cent.

The Associated Press, in its report, said August’s surplus was US$119.1 billion. Semiconductor exports jumped 108.1 per cent in the first nine months, and auto exports grew 54.3 per cent, helped by demand for Chinese electric vehicles and hybrids, the AP said. Reuters put auto export growth at more than 50 per cent in both value and volume.

September’s surplus with the United States was US$34.01 billion, a 20-month high, and with the European Union US$34.8 billion, according to Reuters. The AP said the EU’s trade deficit with China exceeds US$1.1 billion a day.

Imports of crude oil fell 21.5 per cent and soybeans 7.7 per cent in September, Reuters reported.

Economists said the trade tension is shifting toward Europe. “While U.S.-China trade tensions have eased somewhat, the EU’s push to rebalance directly targets high-value exports,” Ecaterina Bigos of BNP Paribas Asset Management said, as quoted by the AP. Nguyen Hoang Nam of ANZ said the widening surplus with Europe “could spur broader EU restrictions,” Reuters reported, though he expected the economic fallout for China to be small.

Max Zenglein of The Conference Board warned that a slowdown in AI investment could threaten Chinese export growth more than trade restrictions would, the AP reported. Wang Jun, a vice customs minister, cited external uncertainties, including geopolitical conflicts, but said there is a foundation for continued export and import growth in the fourth quarter, Reuters said.

Both agencies reported that a September summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping extended the U.S.-China tariff truce. Reuters said each side agreed to cut tariffs on US$30 billion of goods. The AP said Washington also has an ongoing probe into excess industrial capacity in China and other trading partners.

Europe has moved separately. As we reported on Oct. 10, the EU announced a deal with China to limit hybrid vehicle exports to the bloc. Reuters said the measures are likely to be set out in December, which may push exporters to ship ahead of the deadline.

The AP said the IMF has cut its 2026 growth forecast for China to 4.5 per cent, citing weak domestic demand, while Beijing’s target is 4.5 to five per cent. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has said China needs to shift from export-led growth toward domestic consumption, according to the Rio Times. China’s central bank has rejected claims that it keeps the yuan artificially weak, Reuters said.

Neither the Reuters nor the AP report mentions Canada. The link is indirect but real: Ottawa and Beijing announced a trade arrangement on Jan. 16, 2026, under which Canada set an initial quota of 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles a year at a 6.1 per cent tariff, according to Global Affairs Canada. In return, China was expected to cut its combined tariff on Canadian canola seed to about 15 per cent from about 84 per cent by March 1, the department said. Canada expects the change to improve access for about $4 billion in annual canola seed exports.

Canada News Media has not confirmed how that arrangement is playing out in September trade data, and the customs release itself was not available to us. Canadian exporters and car buyers will be watching how Europe’s response to China’s surplus, and any shift in Chinese export routes, affects prices and competition.

China’s third-quarter economic growth figures are due Oct. 19, according to the Rio Times calendar. They will show whether record exports are making up for weak domestic demand.

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Via Reuters and The Associated Press (as published by News4Jax and U.S. News & World Report); Rio Times Asia brief of Oct. 14.