Housing starts rise 3% to 248,896 in September, CMHC says

Canada’s housing starts picked up in September, with the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reporting Oct. 16 that the seasonally adjusted annual rate rose about 3 per cent to 248,896 units from 242,223 in August.

The numbers come from CMHC’s monthly housing starts release, as reported by The Canadian Press. The annual rate smooths out month-to-month swings, but actual construction was weaker than a year ago.

Actual starts in communities of 10,000 or more people totalled 19,984 in September, down 11 per cent from 22,375 in September 2025. For January through September, starts totalled 170,964, down 4 per cent from the same period last year, according to WRE News.

The six-month moving average of the annual rate rose 0.6 per cent to 250,411 units, a trend WRE News described as effectively flat. CMHC estimated the annual pace of rural starts at 18,094 units.

A year ago the picture looked stronger. Trading Economics reported that the annual rate for September 2025 was 279,234 units as first published, which makes this September’s pace roughly 11 per cent lower by our calculation.

The pipeline offers a mixed signal. Units under construction in centres of 50,000 or more people stood at 371,617, little changed from August, while completions fell 0.9 per cent to 17,398, according to WRE News. Permitted units that have not yet started rose 1.1 per cent to 143,929, which suggests builders are holding approvals they have not yet turned into construction. Statistics Canada reported this week that building permits jumped 8.8 per cent on a multi-unit surge, so more approvals are entering that queue.

City trends diverged. In six-month trend terms, Montreal starts fell 8 per cent, Vancouver rose 6 per cent and Toronto was broadly flat, WRE News reported. Quebec was the only one of Canada’s four most populous provinces with modest gains for the year to date.

Aled ab Iorwerth, CMHC’s deputy chief economist, said Canada “still faces a long-term housing supply gap.” He said the affordability gains made since 2023 will be hard to sustain unless construction levels rise.

CMHC’s September Housing Supply Report estimates that Canada needs 417,000 to 469,000 starts a year to restore pre-pandemic affordability by 2036, according to WRE News. The current annual pace is roughly 40 to 47 per cent below that range by our calculation. The 2036 figure is a measure of scale, not a forecast for this year.

Demand is not filling the gap either. The Canadian Real Estate Association said resale sales fell 2.3 per cent in September, and economists expect the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate on Oct. 28. Our earlier reporting on stalled August housing starts and a market stuck in neutral shows the same pattern of builders and buyers both waiting.

CMHC’s next housing starts release is scheduled for Nov. 17.

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Via The Canadian Press. Additional figures from WRE News and Trading Economics.