U.S. President Donald Trump said on Oct. 8 that the United States will not attack Iran before the American midterm elections on Nov. 3, as Tehran weighs Washington’s response to its plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The pledge covers about 26 days and leaves open what happens afterwards. Brent crude was about US$105 a barrel before Trump’s post and fell to about US$103 afterwards, CBS News reported.
“We are having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd,” he said, according to Al Jazeera. He gave no specifics about the talks.
CBS News reported that Trump has said strikes could come after the election and that The Atlantic has reported the White House asked the Pentagon for strike options. Some analysts told Al Jazeera the comments were meant to bring oil prices down.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran is reviewing the U.S. response to its seven-day plan to reopen the strait and expects to reply “within a few days,” according to the Tasnim news agency as reported by Al Jazeera and Dawn. Araghchi said talks are continuing through intermediaries.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian called negotiations with Washington futile on Monday, accusing the United States of using talks to attack Iran, Al Jazeera reported. Vice-President JD Vance said on Tuesday that Iran must make a “meaningful” reduction in its uranium enrichment capacity as part of any deal.
Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation head, Mohammad Eslami, said Iran will not abandon uranium enrichment or hand over its uranium, state media reported, according to Dawn. He called enrichment “an inseparable part” of the nuclear process.
The status of the strait itself is disputed. Trump said the U.S. naval blockade remains in force and that oil is flowing in “record numbers,” citing 22 million barrels on Wednesday night. U.S. Central Command rejected Iran’s claim that the waterway is closed, Dawn reported. An adviser to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad Reza Naqdi, said the strait remains closed under Iranian control, according to CBS News.
Shipping data points to a reduced but continuing flow. Kpler data showed vessel transits fell to seven on Tuesday, the lowest in more than two months, then rose to 10 on Wednesday, Dawn reported. Kpler analysts said crude crossing the strait fell 27 per cent from its wartime high the week before, to at least 10.1 million barrels a day.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations monitor counted nine attacks in the waterway so far this month and said a tanker was struck on Tuesday, CBS News reported. On Friday, Iranian media reported “massive explosions” in the southern strait. Fars, citing unnamed military sources, said tankers using “unauthorised” routes may have struck sea mines. That claim has not been independently confirmed.
For Canadians, the Government of Canada’s travel advisory for Iran remains at “avoid all travel,” citing the volatile security situation, the regional threat of terrorism and a high risk of arbitrary detention. Canadians in Iran are advised to leave by commercial means if it is safe to do so. Fuel prices in Canada track global crude, so movements in Brent flow through to pump prices over time.
Araghchi’s promised reply is the next marker. The Nov. 3 election date is the outer limit of Trump’s pledge, and he has not said what the United States will do afterwards.
Via Al Jazeera, Dawn and CBS News.
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