Economy

Ford: What do Albertans care most about: health care or the economy? – Calgary Herald

Published

3 years ago

February 2, 2022

Voters in the Calgary-Mountain View riding head to the polls at Stanley Jones School on provincial election day April 16, 2019. The next election on May 29, 2023, will be between two parties and two issues, writes columnist Catherine Ford. Photo by Gavin Young /Postmedia file

Heath care or the economy?

UCP or NDP?

Who wins? Who knows?

There it is: 12 words; 12 months.

Policy wonks call it the “red zone” and Albertans are speeding rapidly toward its reality.

The next Alberta election is May 29, 2023, and that means the red zone starts on or about the beginning of June this year. What that means for all of us is a decision about what is the most important challenge facing this province: health care or the economy.

All of this prognosticating is based on a few simple realities: Premier Jason Kenney survives a leadership review this spring and doesn’t call a snap election, the price of oil rises and stays above $70 a barrel; the pandemic is but a bad memory, and Albertans decide what is most important.

How each of us makes that decision will determine the makeup of the next provincial government. My prediction? Committed conservative voters will decide the economy is more important; liberal voters will focus on health care.

Those who believe the economy to be the most important key to a rosy future will be pitted against those who believe the care of the sick, needy and aged is our most important priority going forward.

If the past two years have taught us anything, it has highlighted the abysmal state of long-term care in Canada, the atrocious lack of concern outside of a resident’s own family and the concept that morality doesn’t enter into it. Wrong. This is all our moral responsibility.

It has also taught us that we are ill-prepared for a crisis, even as the 2003 SARS outbreak should have warned us. Instead, we made little progress, preferring to ignore the problems.

We have learned how fragile our health-care system really is: held together metaphorically with duct tape, hope and the hard work of front-line staff. One doesn’t have to look very far to see the wreckage; friends whose “elective” operations have been postponed more than once; those whose pain is managed only through opioids as they wait and wait and wait while hospitals and their staff are contending with the fallout from the pandemic and the stupidity of anti-vaxxers. While one cannot cure stupidity, all of us can embrace the cure for our expensive and inefficient system for treating the sick.

(Canada spends about $7,000 per capita on health care, behind the United States, Germany, France and Sweden. Incidentally, the U.S. spends more than $12,500 per person, making that country’s expenditure the highest in the world.)

We have a responsibility. It starts with monitoring what Kenney does with Alberta’s share of the $9 billion earmarked for long-term care by Ottawa. Personally, I’d like Alberta’s premier to agree with whatever national standards are proposed by the federal government and ditch the “everything that’s wrong in Alberta is the fault of a guy named Trudeau” trope. The hammer held by Kenney is the provinces are in charge of the delivery of health care.

This is more than an ideological battle, it is a morality play. Do we care about the budget or do we care about bodies? Clearly, we should be able to do both, but I’m too old to believe in the tooth fairy.

Here is what needs to happen within the next year. First, the embattled premier must survive a leadership review, made even more intense by the likely presence in his caucus of Brian Jean, the UCP candidate in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche in a byelection that must be called this month. Jean has made no secret of his intention to replace Kenney.

I’m not willing to bet on Kenney’s demise. He has proven himself to be a powerful organizer and wily campaigner and, if need be, will harness his supporters to flood the convention floor in Red Deer.

Between now and the next election, candidates must be nominated for the 87 seats in the legislature, a possibility of 522 hopefuls from the six registered parties, although it is unlikely the fringe parties (Wildrose Independence Party, Alberta Party, Greens and now the moribund Liberal party) will have a full slate of nominees.

UCP or NDP?

The economy or health care?

It’s up to us to decide.

Catherine Ford is a regular columnist for the Calgary Herald.

Adblock test (Why?)

Source link

Economy

Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

Published

1 hour ago

November 6, 2024

Anne Joseph

As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

Source link

Economy

September merchandise trade deficit narrows to $1.3 billion: Statistics Canada

Published

1 day ago

November 5, 2024

Anne Joseph

OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the country’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $1.3 billion in September as imports fell more than exports.

The result compared with a revised deficit of $1.5 billion for August. The initial estimate for August released last month had shown a deficit of $1.1 billion.

Statistics Canada says the results for September came as total exports edged down 0.1 per cent to $63.9 billion.

Exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products fell 5.4 per cent as exports of unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals, and their alloys, decreased 15.4 per cent. Exports of energy products dropped 2.6 per cent as lower prices weighed on crude oil exports.

Meanwhile, imports for September fell 0.4 per cent to $65.1 billion as imports of metal and non-metallic mineral products dropped 12.7 per cent.

In volume terms, total exports rose 1.4 per cent in September while total imports were essentially unchanged in September.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.

Source link