Canada’s population stood at 41,798,407 on July 1, according to Statistics Canada’s latest quarterly estimates, and revised figures suggest the country has about 300,000 more residents than earlier data showed, according to an analysis by Central 1 credit union reported by Daily Hive.
The agency said the population grew by about 80,000 between April 1 and July 1, or 0.2 per cent. Over the past 12 months it rose by about 189,000, or 0.5 per cent, according to Moving2Canada, which summarized the release published around Sept. 23.
The change matters because earlier estimates had pointed to a shrinking population. Central 1 said the previous figures showed April’s population down 0.5 per cent from a year earlier. The revised numbers put it up 0.5 per cent, a swing of a full percentage point.
Daily Hive, citing Central 1, reported that the revisions go back to July 2021 and centre on temporary residents, including international students and temporary workers. Statistics Canada now uses Canada Border Services Agency data to estimate when people leave before their permits expire, rather than relying only on expiry dates, the analysis said. Central 1 said the estimated drop in temporary residents over the 18 months to April shrank from about 590,500 to about 185,000. Moving2Canada described the changes as routine revisions and did not detail the method, so the methodology explanation rests on the Central 1 analysis.
The non-permanent resident population was about 2.78 million on July 1, down from 2.80 million on April 1, Moving2Canada reported. That is a decline of just under 20,000, smaller than the 64,502 drop in the first quarter. The population peaked near three million in late 2024.
The revisions complicate the federal government’s goal of bringing temporary residents below five per cent of the population by the end of 2027. Central 1 said temporary residents made up 6.6 per cent of the population in July, compared with a revised 6.7 per cent in April. Before the revision, the April share had been estimated at 6.1 per cent, so the gap to the target is wider than it looked.
About 99,000 people became permanent residents in the second quarter, up from about 83,000 in the first quarter but roughly 4.2 per cent below the same period last year, according to Moving2Canada. The 2026 immigration levels plan targets 380,000 new permanent residents. Daily Hive reported that about 368,200 people became permanent residents over the four quarters to June, a figure that includes people already in Canada who moved from temporary to permanent status.
Earlier estimates showed annual declines in seven of 10 provinces. Central 1 said the revised figures show every province grew year over year in April and July. British Columbia and Ontario saw the largest revisions because they have higher shares of temporary residents.
Alberta led the country with growth of 1.5 per cent, or about 76,400 people, taking its population to roughly 5.1 million, according to Central 1. The province also gained a net 5,893 residents from other provinces in the second quarter. Saskatchewan and New Brunswick each grew by about one per cent, and Ontario by 0.3 per cent. B.C. reached about 5.71 million, up 8,053 or 0.1 per cent, the weakest annual growth among the provinces.
For young Canadians, the economic read-through is direct. Central 1 said a larger population means some of the strength in consumer spending may simply reflect more people, and that output per person improves less than headline growth suggests. The analysis also said unemployment rates may rise as the revised population figures feed into labour force statistics, since the denominator is bigger. The same analysis noted that GDP was essentially unchanged in July after a 0.4 per cent rise in June.
Central 1 argued that further restrictions on temporary residents could weaken rental markets and economic activity. That is the credit union’s view, not a finding by Statistics Canada, and the federal government has not changed its stated target in response to the revisions.
The agency cautioned that the figures are estimates, not final counts. The first population counts from the 2026 Census are scheduled for release on Feb. 10, 2027, and are expected to test the revised numbers.
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Via Daily Hive and Moving2Canada. The 300,000 figure and the methodology details come from Central 1’s analysis as reported by Daily Hive and were not independently checked against Statistics Canada’s release.
